Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

David Reimer at Texas Storm Chasers just posted that light snow has been reported in Frisco and McKinney, a sign that lift is increasing.

He also mentioned the explosion of precipitation out in the Big Country, another sign that lift is increasing.

Then this: "The upper level low looks like its a bit stronger than previously expected and surface temperatures are a tad cooler."

As long as temps aren't too marginal, this looks big ticket item to me.

[TheProfessor]

Another band is developing behind Abilene, and this isn't even the main event yet! Talk about 2010 Deja Vu so far.

[STX Expat]

I guess I'm just talking to myself.

But it looks like some bona fide thunderstorms building NE of Abilene to the NW of Forth Worth.

No, sir. Your noob southern neighbor is listening in with rapt attention. In between trips outside in pensive anticipation, that is...

[Texas Snowman]

Tremendous area of convection has blown up in the last 10 minutes around Throckmorton. If that's sleet (their last obs was unknown precip), then they're getting just hammered right now.

[Tcu101]

Anyone know what the vertical profiles are like in the DFW area ? Is there a warm nose? Im curious to what this first wave of precipitation will fall as? i noticed out toward Abilene its being recored as rain with temps at 35 and dew points already at 32.

[Texas Snowman]

I guess I'm just talking to myself.

But it looks like some bona fide thunderstorms building NE of Abilene to the NW of Forth Worth.

No, sir. Your noob southern neighbor is listening in with rapt attention. In between trips outside in pensive anticipation, that is...

Welcome aboard STX Expat! Hope this is a memorable night and morning for you for a big winter storm here in the Red River Valley!

[Texas Snowman]

Anyone know what the vertical profiles are like in the DFW area ? Is there a warm nose? Im curious to what this first wave of precipitation will fall as? i noticed out toward Abilene its being recored as rain with temps at 35 and dew points already at 32.

Was wondering about that myself. Steve LaNore opined a while ago on his 10 p.m. newscast (KXII) that the precip could start as rain, should change over fairly quickly to sleet and/or snow in the early morning hours.

Surface wise, we're at 32 in Denison/Sherman with a dewpoint of 31. Don't know about temp profile above. See what I can find out.

[TrekkerCC]

Anyone know what the vertical profiles are like in the DFW area ? Is there a warm nose? Im curious to what this first wave of precipitation will fall as? i noticed out toward Abilene its being recored as rain with temps at 35 and dew points already at 32.

I just examined the RAP sounding and there appears to be a warm nose around the DFW area (primarily at the 800mb level). The column will rapidly cool down to freezing from top-down, but there definitely some potential for a little sleet at the front end. But the sleet should change to snow relatively quickly.

[Texas Snowman]

Aviation update a few minutes ago from Fort Worth NWS:

"000
FXUS64 KFWD 250542 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.

LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS MOVING INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE AIRPORTS AT THIS HOUR. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 10-11Z. THE
SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISBYS LESS THAN A
MILE. AT KACT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR
AROUND 13Z. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS BY
15-16Z. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY AS THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW OCCURS. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT IN
THE KDFW EXTENDED TAF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

82/JLD"

[ludosc]

Light rain with a sleet pellet or two mixed in falling near I-30 & Montgomery just west of downtown FTW

[Texas Snowman]

Anyone know what the vertical profiles are like in the DFW area ? Is there a warm nose? Im curious to what this first wave of precipitation will fall as? i noticed out toward Abilene its being recored as rain with temps at 35 and dew points already at 32.

I just examined the RAP sounding and there appears to be a warm nose around the DFW area (primarily at the 800mb level). The column will rapidly cool down to freezing from top-down, but there definitely some potential for a little sleet at the front end. But the sleet should change to snow relatively quickly.

Does that warm nose extend east and/or north of DFW?

[Texas Snowman]

Radar just looks amazing to the west and northwest of Fort Worth.

And some new returns starting to show north of the Red River in Oklahoma south of Ardmore.

[MSUDawg]

David Reimer at Texas Storm Chasers just posted that light snow has been reported in Frisco and McKinney, a sign that lift is increasing.

He also mentioned the explosion of precipitation out in the Big Country, another sign that lift is increasing.

Then this: "The upper level low looks like its a bit stronger than previously expected and surface temperatures are a tad cooler."

As long as temps aren't too marginal, this looks big ticket item to me.

I'm here...this just makes me smile reeeallly big and clap my hands like a mad scientist.
I'd love another day off from work and to see some truly measurable snow for the either the 2nd or 3rd time ever.

[Brent]

Radar just looks amazing...

I never expected this. I'm seeing massive potential here and a very long next 12 hours for FWD.

[Texas Snowman]

I hope so. I always get a little nervous about this point in time. Temps are a bit more marginal than I'd like but as someone pointed out earlier today (may have been Steve McCauley), some of our biggest snowfalls have happened when temps were right at freezing or even a degree above. The 2010 storm, it was 32-33 the whole day here in Denison as the skies just DUMPED snow.

Looks like a number of our regulars have turned in for the night. I suspect many are going to be up around 2-4 a.m. and will chime back in then as things really begin in earnest (I hope!).

[Tcu101]

Very light rain in Far West Fort Worh (820 & 30) with very small snow grains mixed in. Rain is not freezing to any metal objects as of now..

[STX Expat]

I've been watching the IR satellite imagery over the last few hours (yeah, old school). Not sure what the pressure gradients are but it appears that we now have three distinct lows - Panhandle, Big Country and far West Texas. Is this accurate or am I imagining this?

If it is, I, for one, welcome our new Triad Low Overlords.

[TrekkerCC]

Anyone know what the vertical profiles are like in the DFW area ? Is there a warm nose? Im curious to what this first wave of precipitation will fall as? i noticed out toward Abilene its being recored as rain with temps at 35 and dew points already at 32.

I just examined the RAP sounding and there appears to be a warm nose around the DFW area (primarily at the 800mb level). The column will rapidly cool down to freezing from top-down, but there definitely some potential for a little sleet at the front end. But the sleet should change to snow relatively quickly.

Does that warm nose extend east and/or north of DFW?

Yes, it does. The column is not totally freezing (remember this is a model projection) until you get up deeper into Oklahoma. I am also hearing light sleet, so I think there is confirmation of a warm nose.

[Texas Snowman]

Radar just looks amazing...

I never expected this. I'm seeing massive potential here and a very long next 12 hours for FWD.

I hope so. I really am starting to believe that somebody is going to get walloped by this, maybe DFW, maybe the Red River counties, maybe the Quitman/Gilmer/Tyler area. I think somebody gets 4-6 inches, maybe 6-8 in a spot or two.

Whether this gets into the double digit range, probably not. Those are once in a generation kind of things.

But I suspect things will be really fun around here about 6 a.m. in the morning.

At least I sure hope so!

[iorange55]

:uarrow: I hope so. I always get a little nervous about this point in time. Temps are a bit more marginal than I'd like but as someone pointed out earlier today (may have been Steve McCauley), some of our biggest snowfalls have happened when temps were right at freezing or even a degree above. The 2010 storm, it was 32-33 the whole day here in Denison as the skies just DUMPED snow.

Looks like a number of our regulars have turned in for the night. I suspect many are going to be up around 2-4 a.m. and will chime back in then as things really begin in earnest (I hope!).

Yeah, this is always the time I get the most nervous. Just watching, waiting and hoping it all comes together like we think it will. We need a fast forward button!