Texas Winter 2017-2018

[opticsguy]

An hour ago American Airlines put out a travel alert for Austin, SA, DFW, IAD, HOU, etc. Moved my trip to next week. They wouldn't do this unless their mets saw the same thing the HRRR does, IMO.

SREF now has .8" of snow for DFW

[dhweather]

I dunno what to expect in DFW but it sure turned wintry looking fast after a really not wintry day

Didn't it? I know exactly what you mean.

[dhweather]

An hour ago American Airlines put out a travel alert for Austin, SA, DFW, IAD, HOU, etc. Moved my trip to next week. They wouldn't do this unless their mets saw the same thing the HRRR does, IMO.

SREF now has .8" of snow for DFW

I think .5 -1.0" is reasonable to expect. It will be interesting to see what the PWAT's are on the sounding this evening.

[opticsguy]

I dunno what to expect in DFW but it sure turned wintry looking fast after a really not wintry day

Didn't it? I know exactly what you mean.

Like the opening scene of "Dr. Zhivago"

[gpsnowman]

Wind is blowing now. Drop temps drop!!!

[aggiecutter]

Each run of the HRRR progressively puts NE Texas and SW Arkansas in the cross hairs of the biggest snowfall totals:

[gpsnowman]

I dunno what to expect in DFW but it sure turned wintry looking fast after a really not wintry day

Didn't it? I know exactly what you mean.

Like the opening scene of "Dr. Zhivago"

Now that is some vodka cold!!

[iorange55]

And each runs continues to give everyone in north texas more precip. It doesn't look like it's going to be trending to the NAM. It's trending away from it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Each run of the HRRR progressively puts NE Texas and SW Arkansas in the cross hairs of the biggest snowfall totals:

I'm loving the trends this press me in the SW edge of the 5 inch zone.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

And each runs continues to give everyone in north texas more precip. It doesn't look like it's going to be trending to the NAM. It's trending away from it.

I think the NAM overestimated the high, either its strength or speed, or both.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont know where the NWS or people putting out estimates for precip in SE Tx. They are saying .05 - .1 ice. Im seeing almost a half an inch of precip....

[Theepicman116]

My friend just texted me saying "I know it's about to snow when I do something that I never normally do, pay attention to the School District's Twitter account."

Which reminded that this is my last year of constantly refreshing the page and watching the school closure list like a hawk. Next year when I'm a fish at a&m I'll get a text from code maroon. While it is easier to do that, it takes the joy out of refreshing the school's main page for what seems like the 100th time and seeing the little bar at top that says "due to inclement weather KISD will be closed on *insert date here*"

[dhweather]

In Heath:

2:01PM 62.8 degrees

3:45PM 50.4 degrees

So now the big question is when do freezing temps arrive. I'm guessing around 9-10 pm.

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow:

And each runs continues to give everyone in north texas more precip. It doesn't look like it's going to be trending to the NAM. It's trending away from it.

Hope that includes Tarrant county and not just Dallas county, seems pretty dry on this side except for south of I-20

[iorange55]

:uarrow:

And each runs continues to give everyone in north texas more precip. It doesn't look like it's going to be trending to the NAM. It's trending away from it.

Hope that includes Tarrant county and not just Dallas county, seems pretty dry on this side except for south of I-20

Well if you compare the 20z run with the 18z run...I'd say the trend is in your favor.

[JDawg512]

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[rwfromkansas]

DFW thinks HRRR is overdone.

"The high-res model solutions seem to have
the best handle on the current precipitation moving into northern
Oklahoma as well as the light showers currently developing across
North Texas. However, the HRRR appears a bit too wet with the air
at the top of the frontal inversion and therefore generates quite
a bit of QPF near and just south of the Red River this evening. We
will continue to favor the slightly drier solutions of the TTU
WRF and NAM with regards to precipitation tonight as they seem to
have the best handle on the dry air moving in on the west side of
the upper low."

[JDawg512]

Take a break from the model watching for a few minutes and look up into the sky. I always say you can learn a lot just by the clouds, how they look, how low do they hang, the coloration of the dark areas and the contrast between dark and light. I find this a very interesting and beautiful sky and can see how the rain will begin to develop heading into the nighttime hours.

[rwfromkansas]

What school? Teach at Central.

My friend just texted me saying "I know it's about to snow when I do something that I never normally do, pay attention to the School District's Twitter account."

Which reminded that this is my last year of constantly refreshing the page and watching the school closure list like a hawk. Next year when I'm a fish at a&m I'll get a text from code maroon. While it is easier to do that, it takes the joy out of refreshing the school's main page for what seems like the 100th time and seeing the little bar at top that says "due to inclement weather KISD will be closed on *insert date here*"

[EnnisTx]

Front barreled through Arlington. From sunny and warm to windy and dark. Temp was 57 and has dropped to 51 in about 15 minutes.