Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gboudx]

A nice surprise area of showers and some storms over N TX while it was expected to be sunny.

I saw it on radar and supposedly some of the heavier returns were just about over where I live in Rockwall. I checked my Ring floodlight camera and it wasn't raining, nor was the ground wet. Guess it was evaporating.

[rwfromkansas]

Models and ensembles have started to key in on the amplification of the shortwave, though it's worth noting that the disturbance responsible for it will only reach the Canadian coast on Saturday, after which it'll be sampled by upper-air balloons for the first time. An amplifying shortwave trough would serve to reinforce cold, especially in the mid-levels (500-700 hPa). That doesn't sound immediately like a big deal, but what it does is sharpen the temperature gradient between the interior Central US and the Gulf coast. Large gradients in temperature in the low to mid-levels means big increases in wind aloft, so that results in a strengthening of the northern stream jet over the Ohio River Valley.

Air accelerating off into the jet results in upper-air divergence, so air needs to be drawn up from the low-levels to replace it. The start of the jet, especially south and east of that area (i.e. the "right entrance region"), is a favored region for air to ascend into. Where this area is depends on the orientation and strength of the trough. The 12z GFS, pictured below, had a stronger, more emphatic jet than the 12z ECMWF, resulting in divergence extending farther north.

https://i.imgur.com/9elxpw4.png

Details are yet to be worked out, but the general location of the shortwave is well-suited to draw moisture from the Gulf. We can represent this by plotting potential temperature (theta-E) like an topographical surface, since air tends to maintain constant potential temperature. In this case, the 295K potential temperature level is plotted like terrain, allowing us to visualize the ascent of humid air from the moist Gulf upwards over Texas to feed the jet stream. This translates into vertical motion over Texas, and, provided the air is sufficiently saturated aloft, precipitation:
https://i.imgur.com/vKB9EZP.gif

Key questions determining precipitation location, type, and amount will be:

• How far inland will moisture be able to reach? The 12Z GFS showed the plume of moisture reaching the Red River. The 12Z Euro struggled to reach US-290.
• Will the plume of moisture sustain long enough to permit precipitation before drier low-level air associated with the shortwave trough arrives from the north? (Especially for North Texas)
• How cold will it be throughout the low-levels at the start of the event? Southerly flow inevitably causes warming. Will the resulting warm nose be well above freezing or marginal/below freezing?

It's like I am reading a professor but in a way that actually I can understand. Thank you for your posts.

[Ralph's Weather]

A nice surprise area of showers and some storms over N TX while it was expected to be sunny.

I saw it on radar and supposedly some of the heavier returns were just about over where I live in Rockwall. I checked my Ring floodlight camera and it wasn't raining, nor was the ground wet. Guess it was evaporating.

Yea it was pretty dry in the low levels

[Iceresistance]

A nice surprise area of showers and some storms over N TX while it was expected to be sunny.

I had the rain too!

And there was some lightning in Oklahoma too, very unexpected

[gpsnowman]

A nice surprise area of showers and some storms over N TX while it was expected to be sunny.

I saw it on radar and supposedly some of the heavier returns were just about over where I live in Rockwall. I checked my Ring floodlight camera and it wasn't raining, nor was the ground wet. Guess it was evaporating.

I was raking leaves earlier and had to go inside because I was getting rained on. Rained on the way to Kroger as well this morning. Didn't last long though.

[txtwister78]

Latest WPC hazards outlook will definitely get some attention with the "heavy snow" risk threat that far south. Use this link for the enhanced graphic with cities included. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

[orangeblood]

Latest WPC hazards outlook will definitely get some attention with the "heavy snow" risk threat that far south. Use this link for the enhanced graphic with cities included. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/final/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Interesting, looks like the WPC is leaning towards the Canadian Model with those highlighted areas....

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM looking very similar to its previous few runs for Monday.

[Tireman4]

ERCOT WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch for January 20-23 due to extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves. Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal. For more information, visit our TXANS webpage.

What is an ERCOT Weather Watch?
An ERCOT Weather Watch is an advance notification of forecasted significant weather with higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves. At this time, grid conditions are expected to be normal, and there is not a current expectation of an energy emergency. Texans should continue to monitor real-time and extended grid conditions at ercot.com.

What do I need to do?
No action is needed. You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ercot.com.

Did you know?
Reducing electric use during peak demand times can help you save and lower demand on the grid. Energy-saving tips can be found at ercot.com/txans.

Stay Updated
Follow us on social media.

Subscribe to ERCOT Emergency Alerts or download the ERCOT Mobile App for additional notifications: iOS | Android.

[Ralph's Weather]

Latest WPC hazards outlook will definitely get some attention with the "heavy snow" risk threat that far south. Use this link for the enhanced graphic with cities included. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/final/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Interesting, looks like the WPC is leaning towards the Canadian Model with those highlighted areas....

Since Tue evening the CMC has been consistent in showing heavy snow though it over time has shifted the location to SE TX from E TX. Other models have waffled between nothing to a big storm.

[Gotwood]

NAM with a 1067 HP in Wyoming at the end of its run.

[txtwister78]

Latest WPC hazards outlook will definitely get some attention with the "heavy snow" risk threat that far south. Use this link for the enhanced graphic with cities included. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/final/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Interesting, looks like the WPC is leaning towards the Canadian Model with those highlighted areas....

Not necessarily. This is how they define heavy snow criteria if you go to the webpage and look it up "40% probability of Moderate snow-related Impacts based on WPC’s Experimental Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index"


So, it doesn't necessarily mention accumulations specifically in order to trigger that hazard shading, but obviously for moderate impacts (hazardous travel likely) you would figure higher accumulations but doesn't mean they're leaning toward the CMC scenario in my opinion either.

[sphelps8681]

ERCOT WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch for January 20-23 due to extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves. Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal. For more information, visit our TXANS webpage.

What is an ERCOT Weather Watch?
An ERCOT Weather Watch is an advance notification of forecasted significant weather with higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves. At this time, grid conditions are expected to be normal, and there is not a current expectation of an energy emergency. Texans should continue to monitor real-time and extended grid conditions at ercot.com.

What do I need to do?
No action is needed. You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ercot.com.

Did you know?
Reducing electric use during peak demand times can help you save and lower demand on the grid. Energy-saving tips can be found at ercot.com/txans.

Stay Updated
Follow us on social media.

Subscribe to ERCOT Emergency Alerts or download the ERCOT Mobile App for additional notifications: iOS | Android.

The last winter weather event we had in Tx my area in SE TX was sharing our energy with Ercot because their windmills froze up. We had to with stand rolling blackouts in my area for days even though we have Entergy of Tx. It was awful.

[orangeblood]

Latest WPC hazards outlook will definitely get some attention with the "heavy snow" risk threat that far south. Use this link for the enhanced graphic with cities included. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/final/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Interesting, looks like the WPC is leaning towards the Canadian Model with those highlighted areas....

Not necessarily. This is how they define heavy snow criteria if you go to the webpage and look it up "40% probability of Moderate snow-related Impacts based on WPC’s Experimental Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index"


So, it doesn't necessarily mention accumulations specifically in order to trigger that hazard shading, but obviously for moderate impacts (hazardous travel likely) you would figure higher accumulations but doesn't mean they're leaning toward the CMC scenario in my opinion either.

It appears to be putting more weight into that index is my point...that area matches up almost exactly with the GEPS mean snowfall. The other ENS members are much less/spotty and further southeast

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I expect they will but was hoping the 12Z Euro would join the CMC and GFS on this run with that shift. We are getting close to NAM range, but for now the NAM isn't digging SW as much as other models which I don't love.

NAM actually is digging southwest more so than the other globals (mainly GFS/Euro), its closer to the CMC

I think there is probably a lower confidence in models right now than normal. A couple of things to watch: the s/w hasn't moved onshore and into a more dense sampling network. Then, the models struggle with how cold, dense air interacts with the Rockies and oftentimes are too progressive. As the cold air interacts with the Rockies, it can actually cause the trough to slow/dig more than being shown. How these two play out could cause some significant late shifts in the models.

Correct. The colder air at the surface, especially near the spine of the rockies, can hold the trough or some of the energy back west.

[sphelps8681]

When do the next models come out? Thanks for all y'all do.

[wxman22]

The 18z RGEM

[Bhow]

The 18z RGEM

https://i.ibb.co/4SVHzfT/IMG-0180.png

That’s even further southwest, yeah?

[Steve]

ERCOT WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch for January 20-23 due to extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves. Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal. For more information, visit our TXANS webpage.

What is an ERCOT Weather Watch?
An ERCOT Weather Watch is an advance notification of forecasted significant weather with higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves. At this time, grid conditions are expected to be normal, and there is not a current expectation of an energy emergency. Texans should continue to monitor real-time and extended grid conditions at ercot.com.

What do I need to do?
No action is needed. You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ercot.com.

Did you know?
Reducing electric use during peak demand times can help you save and lower demand on the grid. Energy-saving tips can be found at ercot.com/txans.

Stay Updated
Follow us on social media.

Subscribe to ERCOT Emergency Alerts or download the ERCOT Mobile App for additional notifications: iOS | Android.

The last winter weather event we had in Tx my area in SE TX was sharing our energy with Ercot because their windmills froze up. We had to with stand rolling blackouts in my area for days even though we have Entergy of Tx. It was awful.

That was disinformation.

[sphelps8681]

ERCOT WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch for January 20-23 due to extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves. Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal. For more information, visit our TXANS webpage.

What is an ERCOT Weather Watch?
An ERCOT Weather Watch is an advance notification of forecasted significant weather with higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves. At this time, grid conditions are expected to be normal, and there is not a current expectation of an energy emergency. Texans should continue to monitor real-time and extended grid conditions at ercot.com.

What do I need to do?
No action is needed. You can monitor current and extended grid conditions on ercot.com.

Did you know?
Reducing electric use during peak demand times can help you save and lower demand on the grid. Energy-saving tips can be found at ercot.com/txans.

Stay Updated
Follow us on social media.

Subscribe to ERCOT Emergency Alerts or download the ERCOT Mobile App for additional notifications: iOS | Android.

The last winter weather event we had in Tx my area in SE TX was sharing our energy with Ercot because their windmills froze up. We had to with stand rolling blackouts in my area for days even though we have Entergy of Tx. It was awful.

That was disinformation.

What is disinformation? Just curious.