Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Golf7270]

Allan Huffman made a good tweet earlier today about the eps. A west based nao is what we want to have a better chance at cold weather for east of the Rockies. Mjo orbit is important as well. It will be interesting to see about the niña because I believe and have believed this for a while that it is more east based and with a -qbo, will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is about 10 degrees colder for Christmas

Could be a fluke run but who knows it's still not cold by any means but I mean it's not 70s and 80s this run

Still very warm the day after though

[AustinTXResident]

I'm not sure about that.

Once in around 20 years, in Back-to-back years, a cold wave spills (Or below normal Temperatures) into the CONUS in February.

Here are the Analog years for this: 1935 & 1936, 1954 & 1955, 1977 & 1978, with the last one occurring in 1994 & 1995. All of this was in February

How do you define "cold wave"?

Surge of cold air coming from the north, causing a rapid drop of Temperatures, & they could stay way below normal for several days.

Too vague and broad to be useful. Every winter has Arctic fronts.

[Iceresistance]

Oh no, not again . . .

[Texas Snowman]

Critical fire weather threat today in portions of the Plains too. Read somewhere on Twitter that it’s the first time ever in December.

Drought, unseasonably warm, dozens killed in historic December tornado outbreak, new December tornado threat in snow country (Reed Timmer is chasing in Iowa/Minnesota today!?!), fires on the Plains, etc.

Yeah, (insert sarcastic voice) you’ve really got to love La Niña winters…not.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh no, not again . . .

https://i.imgur.com/C2CC1Cp.gif

I mean, it’s ICE FISHING season up there?!?

[Texas Snowman]

How do you define "cold wave"?

Surge of cold air coming from the north, causing a rapid drop of Temperatures, & they could stay way below normal for several days.

Too vague and broad to be useful. Every winter has Arctic fronts.

I don’t think it’s vague at all. In fact, Merriam-Webster actually defines a cold wave as “1 : an unusually large and rapid drop in temperature over a short period of time (such as 24 hours).”

[Iceresistance]

:eek:

Oh no, not again . . .

https://i.imgur.com/C2CC1Cp.gif

I mean, it’s ICE FISHING season up there?!?

It's supposed to be! But today is way different with Hurricane-Force Wind gusts.

[Iceresistance]

It only fell to the Upper 60s this morning

[kingwood_tx1999]

Can we just move to spring if it's going to stay like this?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Iceresistance]

Can we just move to spring if it's going to stay like this?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

I don't think so, last year was similar to this as well when it got warm.

[wxman57]

The 0z GFS is about 10 degrees colder for Christmas

Could be a fluke run but who knows it's still not cold by any means but I mean it's not 70s and 80s this run

Still very warm the day after though

Yeah, I noticed. Similar for 06Z. Instead of 80F for Christmas here it has mid 60s. BRRR! Time to increase the height of my cold air diverter.

[NDG]

The 0z GFS is about 10 degrees colder for Christmas

Could be a fluke run but who knows it's still not cold by any means but I mean it's not 70s and 80s this run

Still very warm the day after though

Yeah, I noticed. Similar for 06Z. Instead of 80F for Christmas here it has mid 60s. BRRR! Time to increase the height of my cold air diverter.

I am sure the "cooler" temps it will disappear over time as we get closer within the 7 day range just like it did for early next week's forecasted temps by the GFS.
If anything TX might be in the heart of the heat ridge by Christmas with the -PNA and -NAO, the ridging shifting from FL to TX.

[wxman57]

In this time of mourning for you winter enthusiasts, I thought I'd look back to my posts starting 9-10 days before the big freeze that arrived on Sunday, February 14th in Texas. I started with my post on Friday, February 5th, where I mentioned heading to Home Depot to get more pipe insulation for the following weekend. I could see it coming 9 days out, though I hoped that the models were wrong. I was cautioning those here not to get too excited about this potential event because it wasn't going to be pleasant. Here are my posts up to Tuesday, Feb 9th, when I was really shouting that the cold is coming. If I see cold/snow coming, I'll let you know. For now, nope.

6:56am Fri, Feb 5
Clearly, my efforts to reinforce the US/Canada cold air wall have failed this year. My shoulder remains too sore. Careful what you wish for. I was a forecaster for the big Arctic fronts of 1983 and 1989. We had models that only went out to 72 hours back then. Houston was below freezing for 5 days. The high one day was 20 deg. I wasn't pretty. Many came home from Christmas travels with water running down the driveway as attic pipes burst while they were away. Water pressure was low as many water mains broke. In 1983, an inch of snow fell on the south shore of Clear Lake (lake-effect snow). Snow was reported on oil rigs out in the Gulf. This cold event does not appear to compare to those big freezes of the past, but it does have the potential to cause major problems across the south. Guess I'll head to Home Depot today to get more pipe insulation before the mad rush as people panic.

7:35am Fri, Feb 5
I'm relieved. Channel 2 in Houston's long-range forecast for next weekend is lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 40s.

1:08pm Sat, Feb 6
Temps not as cold for Houston. May be setting up for an ice storm. ICON coldest. Canadian goes bonkers on Mon-Tue. As for Australia, temps 20 below normal in the Outback mean 90s vs. 110s. I'll be fine there. Was just thinking, February is often snow month for Houston. The biggest snowfall here on record was on Feb. 14, 1895. That was a few years before I was born. 20" of snow. Air will be too shallow for snow here, though.

8:46am Sun, Feb 7
I've now gained control of the Canadian model, as well as the European model. I'm getting the GFS to slowly warm. The ICON is a bit stubborn at the end of the run. Trend keeps getting warmer and warmer. However, I've been watching such Arctic outbreaks since the 1970s. I remember a big outbreak in 1993 around Thanksgiving (NFL game had Leon Lett with the bad fumble recovery attempt, losing game for the Cowboys). Models kept trying to drive the Arctic air northward due to unfavorable winds aloft. The American model drove it north to central Oklahoma 3-5 days out. However, the front was well out into the Gulf for that time. Let's see what kind of cold air is moving down the Plains before making any conclusions about next weekend. Maybe by Wed or Thu we'll have better model agreement and a good handle on what's coming.

2:20pm Sun, Feb 7
Canadian has joined the GFS in saying "what front?" Canadian ensembles are calling the operational Canadian run an idiot. I now have full control of the operational Canadian. Working on the other models now. GFS operational said "no way, here it comes!". GFS ensembles say "what front?" GFS ensembles are 15-20F warmer than operational. Less ice on Canadian, but GFS freezing rain shifted to the coast.

9:49am Mon, Feb 8
I seem to have lost my control of the Canadian model overnight. Now it has an ice storm for Houston with highs Mon/Tue in the low to mid 20s. One thing I notice is that the trend for the past 2 days is for a more westward and southward placement of the big high center. That means they're now starting to see the Arctic air moving south rather than east. Faster, too. Still, nothing like 1983 or 1989, but Houston could easily see highs below 30F for 2-3 days Sun-Tue. This kind of cold, and likely ice, could cause millions if not billions of dollars in damage. Many could be without power for weeks. I'm hoping the Euro verifies. Lack of a deep snow pack to the north may help the air to modify more quickly s it moves down the Plains.

1:50pm Mon, Feb 8
I was just about to mention that my US-Canada cold air wall has fallen. Cross-Polar flow has set up. I suspect that it won't get as cold as the GFS (10) or Canadian (7) here in Houston early next week, but Houston could see 2-3 days with highs below freezing. While models are trending colder with each run (Arctic air moving south vs. east), they won't have a handle on the frozen precip until maybe Wed-Thu. For Houston, I wouldn't expect anything but freezing rain and/or sleet. Arctic air may be too shallow for snow. Sub-freezing air may extend only up to 2000-3000 ft Sunday into Monday morning. However, if we (Houston) get any precip beyond Monday afternoon, then the warm nose (mid to upper 40s) aloft may disappear.

I think the GFS & Canadian are so cold due to the frozen precip they're predicting here.

Gotta run, my plane to Australia is here...

2:07pm Mon, Feb 8
12Z model plots are in. Euro 20-25 deg colder. It stalls the Arctic air just north of Houston. That's about as likely as me cycling naked in sub-freezing air. Oops, last call for the flight to Australia. I'll check back in when I reach Sydney.

8:40pm Mon, Feb 8
I've seen the models mishandle Arctic air many times in my 40+ years as a met in Houston. They don't differentiate between a deep Canadian airmass and a shallow Arctic airmass. Shallow Arctic airmasses don't move back to the north as an upper trof approaches. They usually do OK within about 1-2 days of the arrival. The really cold Arctic air will reach you guys Sunday evening.

7:46am Tue, Feb 9
Remember, the models never handle the arrival of Arctic air correctly. It always gets colder faster than the models can handle. Don't assume that because a location is colder than a model predicted that the difference has any bearing on the eventual coldest temperature. I think the Euro is just not handling the cold air well at all. I'm expecting a day or two of continuous sub-freezing air in Houston from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. The ICON cold air forecast may be like a Canadian hurricane forecast. I don't buy it.

I've always said that when I REALLY see cold air coming (and ice) that I would let you know. I see it... When I leave the country for Australia - be warned.

[starsfan65]

The 0z GFS is about 10 degrees colder for Christmas

Could be a fluke run but who knows it's still not cold by any means but I mean it's not 70s and 80s this run

Still very warm the day after though

Yeah, I noticed. Similar for 06Z. Instead of 80F for Christmas here it has mid 60s. BRRR! Time to increase the height of my cold air diverter.

I am sure the "cooler" temps it will disappear over time as we get closer within the 7 day range just like it did for early next week's forecasted temps by the GFS.
If anything TX might be in the heart of the heat ridge by Christmas with the -PNA and -NAO, the ridging shifting from FL to TX.

I hate a warm Christmas!!!!

!!!!!

[gboudx]

I'm not too picky. I'd just like to have consistent highs in the 50's. Or maybe that is being too picky this year. The grass is still green.

[kingwood_tx1999]

I'm not too picky. I'd just like to have consistent highs in the 50's. Or maybe that is being too picky this year. The grass is still green.

The top half of my tree's the leafs are gone..but the bottom half looks like spring has sprung lol

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Cerlin]

I’m still not totally giving up hope yet. We will have cold air as a source region in Canada and teleconnections are still largely forecasted to be negative from next week through January. I’d like the PNA to be more neutral but I don’t think we’re in a horrible spot. Unless I’m wrong, but I think a negative EPO mixed with a negative NAO should be a good thing for us.

[Iceresistance]

I’m still not totally giving up hope yet. We will have cold air as a source region in Canada and teleconnections are still largely forecasted to be negative from next week through January. I’d like the PNA to be more neutral but I don’t think we’re in a horrible spot. Unless I’m wrong, but I think a negative EPO mixed with a negative NAO should be a good thing for us.

February 2021 had a -PNA & the extreme cold STILL came to Texas with the -NAO, -AO, & -EPO

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I’m still not totally giving up hope yet. We will have cold air as a source region in Canada and teleconnections are still largely forecasted to be negative from next week through January. I’d like the PNA to be more neutral but I don’t think we’re in a horrible spot. Unless I’m wrong, but I think a negative EPO mixed with a negative NAO should be a good thing for us.

February 2021 had a -PNA & the extreme cold STILL came to Texas with the -NAO, -AO, & -EPO

Correct. Why did it still work out? Blocking on both sides of the arctic. Alaska and Greenland and over the top. Pushed the PV to the US/Canada border. As the upper level lows ran down towards Texas, (they had no other path to take) they pulled down air from the PV towards the gulf coast. Wasn't a massive HP which brought down the cold.