Rain has been slower then expected in my area, was dry all night.
1/20/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:55:13 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 55.3
Humidity (%) 96.8
Wind (mph) SE 7.5
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.89
Dew Point: 52.4 ºF
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Cumulonimbus
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2003 9:03 am
- Location: Newcastle, WA
It has been very warm and wet, yet did the models predict this a week out? I didn't see that. It became very much more obvious as the event neared. There might be something related between the Pineapple Express and then getting cold 2-3 weeks later and I might agree but it is the wrong time of the year for that to happen. Seattle can get snow in Feb but the odds are stacked highly against that. Winter months, as a rule, are Nov-Dec and Jan. By Feb the sun angle is much higher and usually the Pacific Ocean wins out. If cold air does penetrate the western side of the state it is shallow and doesn't last long.
The forecast models are only good in showing what MIGHT happen but are almost ALWAYS wrong in the the southward extent of colder air from Canada. It takes a very special situation to bring both the cold air and moisture together to bring any kind of lengthy snowfall to Seattle and it almost never occurs in February. The weather this winter has featured a ridge of high pressure over the coast and even now it continues. Note the morning radar only showing rain up near the northwest coast.
The one thing nobody has mentioned is the word that has described most of the prevailing pattern since November and that word is persistence. The ridge has been here since fall and until the GLOBAL pattern changes(El Nino, weak tho it is) changes nothing changes. Yes...we have had some rain and yes, we ALMOST got blitzed by cold and snow but we didn't and why??? The ridge of high pressure. My feeling is that it will cool off but I am hoping that it will be a very wet spring because the water for next summer is NOT going to come from the snow pack. Some of the people on this board are professional mets and their discussions concerning winter or tropical events are worth reading. They discuss patterns in scientific terms but they are worth reading. Don Sutherland gives a GREAT discussion concerning the upcoming winter pattern and although 95% of the board lives east of the Rockies his discussions can give you an idea of what the pattern in the northern hemisphere is and will be doing.
Believe it or not, I really want snow too but I think this winter is a write off both here and the mountains. We could be in serious trouble if spring is dry and we have a warm/hot summer. Not only no water but forest fires could be very bad. So I am hoping for a wet rainy spring.
The forecast models are only good in showing what MIGHT happen but are almost ALWAYS wrong in the the southward extent of colder air from Canada. It takes a very special situation to bring both the cold air and moisture together to bring any kind of lengthy snowfall to Seattle and it almost never occurs in February. The weather this winter has featured a ridge of high pressure over the coast and even now it continues. Note the morning radar only showing rain up near the northwest coast.
The one thing nobody has mentioned is the word that has described most of the prevailing pattern since November and that word is persistence. The ridge has been here since fall and until the GLOBAL pattern changes(El Nino, weak tho it is) changes nothing changes. Yes...we have had some rain and yes, we ALMOST got blitzed by cold and snow but we didn't and why??? The ridge of high pressure. My feeling is that it will cool off but I am hoping that it will be a very wet spring because the water for next summer is NOT going to come from the snow pack. Some of the people on this board are professional mets and their discussions concerning winter or tropical events are worth reading. They discuss patterns in scientific terms but they are worth reading. Don Sutherland gives a GREAT discussion concerning the upcoming winter pattern and although 95% of the board lives east of the Rockies his discussions can give you an idea of what the pattern in the northern hemisphere is and will be doing.
Believe it or not, I really want snow too but I think this winter is a write off both here and the mountains. We could be in serious trouble if spring is dry and we have a warm/hot summer. Not only no water but forest fires could be very bad. So I am hoping for a wet rainy spring.
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Cumulo....It is way too early to even begin to think about spring. We still have a lot of great potential this winter. You are wrong about Feb not having potential for long periods of cold and snowy weather. You may be interested to know that prior to 1950, Feb was statiscally colder than Dec by a fair margin. We could go back to that at any time, without warning. Cold Febs were very common prior to 1940, and I mean we had some COLD ones. Even since then we have had Febs with very cold and snowy weather. Also...The ridge placement with this El Nino has been nowhere near typical. Show me another El Nino year with such a highly negative PNA average. You guys are wrong about the remainder of this winter. I wish you knew as much about our history as I do. Not to brag or anrthing... 
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT and other doubters...I hope you are willing to concede that you might be wrong. Even I, as sure as I am, am willing to admit there is a small chance that we will not get a major cold spell. You guys are a tad discouraging. I think that a lot of the premise you are building your case on, is not sound.
TT...You may interested to know that I have weather records for the small town of Palmer (SE of Ravensdale). That town is in almost exactly the same microclimate as you and they used to get the most amazing amounts of snow. Would you believe they averaged 52 inches per winter between 1930 and 1980....Wow!
There is alway a chance we could go back to that at any time. This has nothing to do with this winter, but I thought you would enjoy that fact!
TT...You may interested to know that I have weather records for the small town of Palmer (SE of Ravensdale). That town is in almost exactly the same microclimate as you and they used to get the most amazing amounts of snow. Would you believe they averaged 52 inches per winter between 1930 and 1980....Wow!
There is alway a chance we could go back to that at any time. This has nothing to do with this winter, but I thought you would enjoy that fact!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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TT-SEA
If we get an arctic blast... complete with widespread lowland snow... I will be the first to admit that I was wrong. Now... if it does not happen and all we get is low snow levels and lots of mountain snow but rain in the Seattle metro area you need to admit that you were wrong!! 
What is the elevation at Palmer?
What is the elevation at Palmer?
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
You are right...900 feet. Jan 1950 was amazing indeed. Palmer had a total of 116 inches that month. Any guesses where I am planning to move to? In general they had amazingly snowy winters, prior to 1980. As for cold Febs you should look at 1933, and 1936. Bitter indeed!
I will certainly admit I was wrong if we do not get lowland snow.
How are you finding the Palmer records free of charge? I had to pay $70.00 to download the whole set of records from 1930 - 2000.
It seems that Covington may be the cold spot today. I don't see any other observations below 50.
In general they had amazingly snowy winters, prior to 1980. As for cold Febs you should look at 1933, and 1936. Bitter indeed!
I will certainly admit I was wrong if we do not get lowland snow.
How are you finding the Palmer records free of charge? I had to pay $70.00 to download the whole set of records from 1930 - 2000.
It seems that Covington may be the cold spot today. I don't see any other observations below 50.
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TT-SEA
Here is the link...
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wapalm
How do you get to Palmer?? I am just curious where this place is actually located.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wapalm
How do you get to Palmer?? I am just curious where this place is actually located.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
I checked a map and now see where this place is located. Yes... it does look similar to my location but I think we might get more outflow and easterly winds through Snoqualmie Pass. And we might have more frequent convergence zones being further north.
What I like most about where we live... besides the amazing beauty of the Cascades which dominates our view... is ease of access.
I can be on I-90 in just 4 minutes and in downtown Seattle in 30 minutes driving the whole trip on a freeway with no traffic lights or meandering roads.
Plus... being at 1,000 feet in elevation gives us more exciting weather. Many, many times in the winter when Seattle is socked in with fog under a high pressure inversion... we are in total sunshine with awesome visibility. On the flip side... we get more stormy weather and it rains harder out here... and we have a better chance at snow than even North Bend 600 feet lower.
What I like most about where we live... besides the amazing beauty of the Cascades which dominates our view... is ease of access.
I can be on I-90 in just 4 minutes and in downtown Seattle in 30 minutes driving the whole trip on a freeway with no traffic lights or meandering roads.
Plus... being at 1,000 feet in elevation gives us more exciting weather. Many, many times in the winter when Seattle is socked in with fog under a high pressure inversion... we are in total sunshine with awesome visibility. On the flip side... we get more stormy weather and it rains harder out here... and we have a better chance at snow than even North Bend 600 feet lower.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I would call Palmer an absolute hidden treasure! It bears no resemblence to anywhere else, that I have seen, in the Puget Sound area. The west slopes of the Cascades are a stones throw away, and there is NO high density development out there. From North Bend you would take I-90 to Highway 18 West. After that turn off on the highway 167 exit and head east. At 4 corners (the intersection of 167 and highway 516) you take a left, and proceed to the Lake Retreat road. After turning off on the Lake Retreat road proceed for another 4 miles or so and you are there. The entire Kanaskat / Palmer area is awsome. Incredibly nasty weather!
The area gets severe outflow winds from Stampede Pass, as eveidenced by the one sided trees. The other day when we had a dusting of snow and sleet in Covington, the Palmer area had 50mph winds and blowing snow. I have seen times where it is raining up to the area about 2 miles past Lake Retreat, and then like magic it turns to snow. On those occaisions it is often a blinding snowstorm by the time you get to the main outflow area. A truly amazing place! I know it does similar stuff up by Ken's Truck Town. The C zone can effect Palmer also, but not as often as your area. On the other hand when moisture comes up from the south Palmer gets more moisture. I would guess the two places are very similar for snowfall average. I do have the daily records for Palmer and Seattle. The Seattle ones are on paper for the most part, but I do have about 3mb worth of files for the Palmer Records. You can get the ones for Snoq. Falls also, but you would have to pay for them. If your email can handle a huge file, I would be glad to send the Palmer Recs to you. If not, I could email you the best months, as I have those transcriberd onto monthly charts. Those charts have high and low temps, precip, snowfall, and snow depth. I also have the daily records for Clearbrook, which is NE of Bellingham. There are some damn cold months from that location!
From North Bend you would take I-90 to Highway 18 West. After that turn off on the highway 167 exit and head east. At 4 corners (the intersection of 167 and highway 516) you take a left, and proceed to the Lake Retreat road. After turning off on the Lake Retreat road proceed for another 4 miles or so and you are there. The entire Kanaskat / Palmer area is awsome. Incredibly nasty weather!
The area gets severe outflow winds from Stampede Pass, as eveidenced by the one sided trees. The other day when we had a dusting of snow and sleet in Covington, the Palmer area had 50mph winds and blowing snow. I have seen times where it is raining up to the area about 2 miles past Lake Retreat, and then like magic it turns to snow. On those occaisions it is often a blinding snowstorm by the time you get to the main outflow area. A truly amazing place! I know it does similar stuff up by Ken's Truck Town. The C zone can effect Palmer also, but not as often as your area. On the other hand when moisture comes up from the south Palmer gets more moisture. I would guess the two places are very similar for snowfall average. I do have the daily records for Palmer and Seattle. The Seattle ones are on paper for the most part, but I do have about 3mb worth of files for the Palmer Records. You can get the ones for Snoq. Falls also, but you would have to pay for them. If your email can handle a huge file, I would be glad to send the Palmer Recs to you. If not, I could email you the best months, as I have those transcriberd onto monthly charts. Those charts have high and low temps, precip, snowfall, and snow depth. I also have the daily records for Clearbrook, which is NE of Bellingham. There are some damn cold months from that location!
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