Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Might be a little more than flurries coming into Nrn Denton county.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like storm is wrapping up right north of metroplex. Those in Sherman and Denton are going to get some decent flurries before it’s all out of here

[bubba hotep]

mPING report just north of Arlington and several mixed rain/snow reports across Collin County.

[gpsnowman]

mPING report just north of Arlington and several mixed rain/snow reports across Collin County.

Other than a few rain drops, nothing much going on here. Definitely excited about the rain chances next week.

[Brent]

Accumulating snow in McAlester and it was like 45 and sunny here what a weird winter

[Iceresistance]

Wednesday could be big on Severe Weather in DFW

[ElectricStorm]

SPC says 30% area likely in the upcoming outlooks for 2/15. Certainly looking like a dangerous day setting up.

[Gotwood]

GFS with a big winter storm on the 23rd for our region. Feels like this was around the same time they picked up on this last ice event before abandoning it.

Edit to say also single digit temps again.

[rwfromkansas]

SPC outlook has DFW on western fringe as usual, so not too concerned yet unless it trends west. Seems like many storms have slowed down this year which would be a greater issue.

[bubba hotep]

GFS with a big winter storm on the 23rd for our region. Feels like this was around the same time they picked up on this last ice event before abandoning it.

Edit to say also single digit temps again.

Looks like another freezing rain setup but maybe colder than this last system. Ensembles show plenty of cold air building in WCAN, and the WPO going negative around the 20th. The -WPO/PNA combo sets the stage for a positive tilted long wave trough with the SE ridge pushing back - shallow cold air, anyone? Then the MJO is swinging through 6/7/8, which should keep Texas in a wetter pattern.

[harp]

The GFS lost the winter storm once again.

[Gotwood]

The GFS lost the winter storm once again.

Yeah so far out lol biggest swing was the temps went from single digits to 40s lol.

[Cpv17]

GFS with a big winter storm on the 23rd for our region. Feels like this was around the same time they picked up on this last ice event before abandoning it.

Edit to say also single digit temps again.

Looks like another freezing rain setup but maybe colder than this last system. Ensembles show plenty of cold air building in WCAN, and the WPO going negative around the 20th. The -WPO/PNA combo sets the stage for a positive tilted long wave trough with the SE ridge pushing back - shallow cold air, anyone? Then the MJO is swinging through 6/7/8, which should keep Texas in a wetter pattern.

I hope you’re right about the wetter pattern and I hope it’s not just for NTX but for most of the state.

[bubba hotep]

Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows

[South Texas Storms]

Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows

Yeah it's possible the cold air from it doesn't arrive at all or maybe it waits until March. Definitely a low confidence forecast, especially when it comes to SSWs.

[orangeblood]

Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows

I think this setup has decent potential …massive long duration cold buildup in source region to tap into, all you need is a S/W to break off across the southwest US - it’ll likely take the more southerly route across our region as the cold builds

[bubba hotep]

Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows

I think this setup has decent potential …massive long duration cold buildup in source region to tap into, all you need is a S/W to break off across the southwest US - it’ll likely take the more southerly route across our region as the cold builds

This is a decent loading pattern at the end of the 00z Euro EPS. It set's the stage for ridging to potentially retrograde out of Northern Europe and into the NAO region. Then if the Pacific can pop a -EPO the first of March could be very interesting.

[Iceresistance]

DFW is still under the Slight Risk for Wednesday


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day4prob.gif

[orangeblood]

Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows

I think this setup has decent potential …massive long duration cold buildup in source region to tap into, all you need is a S/W to break off across the southwest US - it’ll likely take the more southerly route across our region as the cold builds

This is a decent loading pattern at the end of the 00z Euro EPS. It set's the stage for ridging to potentially retrograde out of Northern Europe and into the NAO region. Then if the Pacific can pop a -EPO the first of March could be very interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023021200/eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

Yep, March looks really promising but even the 9-12 day range looks decent. Feb 22-24th

[Ntxw]

I think this setup has decent potential …massive long duration cold buildup in source region to tap into, all you need is a S/W to break off across the southwest US - it’ll likely take the more southerly route across our region as the cold builds

This is a decent loading pattern at the end of the 00z Euro EPS. It set's the stage for ridging to potentially retrograde out of Northern Europe and into the NAO region. Then if the Pacific can pop a -EPO the first of March could be very interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023021200/eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

Yep, March looks really promising but even the 9-12 day range looks decent. Feb 22-24th

There is support for Feb 22-24th. CMC is getting into range now.