Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

I told those idiot Okie wall-builders along the Red River that I needed a SOLID wall!

Is your wall going to protect the Greater Houston Area from wintry precipitation?

Yes, it should, but we may see lows in the lower 30s with highs in the low-mid 40s early next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Early March is def looking interesting. It again is a GL centered upper trough but it is more SW than it has been previously this winter. The GFS is pumping up the west coast ridge and cutting off moisture more so than other models and more than its ensemble. I think we will see widespread low 20s with this which will rival the coldest of the season, Wed morning could see widespread teens if snow is on the ground. Moisture is the question a weaker West Coast ridge will allow for more moisture especially if we can get a stronger shortwave in the flow on Tuesday ala 3/2/2014. The stronger shortwave would pump up more warmth ahead but bring in much more dynamics and moisture. I'd take either solution. I will never complain about hours of light snow, but an intense sleet storm with wind and lightning is something to behold.

[gboudx]

I told those idiot Okie wall-builders along the Red River that I needed a SOLID wall!

http://wxman57.com/images/wall.jpg

In their defense, the wall is pretty solid. I should know because I was there and I saw it. But you left the "El Chapo" option on the table. That's right, me and my team built an underground tunnel system and will smuggle the arctic air under your wall.

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is more sleet and freezing rain with no snow but it’s just one run and still a good sign.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a trace of snow possible in the D-FW area on Monday as the precip ends. No precip Tuesday, just mid and high clouds. In its defense, I don't see much of a secondary disturbance moving across Texas on Tuesday yet. It may be very minor.

[Arctic Thunder]

Very interesting pattern shaping up over the next week to 10 days...

Key signals are:
• -EPO (strong negative signal supports several strong pushes of very cold air)
• +NAO and AO signals a very fast flow pattern and a decreased risk for a major winter storm...Quick hitting but potentially impactful winter events still likely
• MJO phase favor multiple pushes of colder air down to the Gulf Coast
• Some of the coldest air of the season likely over most of Texas during the first week of March...very rare, but not unheard of in past winters

This reminds me a lot of the early March 2002 weather pattern when we drop into the upper teens to low 20s from north-central Texas to Southeast Texas, which turned out to be the coldest air of that winter season. Obviously to get even close to those type of temperatures we’ll need to clear out and that probably will not happen until Wed AM, March 6 (Ash Wed). By that time we could see a freeze right down to or just inland from the TX coast. Overall still a lot of doubt on the intensity of the cold by I could see near 20F for DFW area and the upper 20s to low 30s for the HOU area...AUS/SAT mid 20s looks within reach. The timing of the front will likely be faster rather than slower...Early AM Sat over DFW and midday on Sat over the HOU area. I think the front on Wed-Thu is an indicator of how the colder air will progress across the state on Sat, which will be a bit faster than the slower GFS...We shall see.

Anyway the PNA trends remain neutral to negative which does signal more energy hanging back late this weekend into early next week. We’ll likely squeeze out a wintry mix over the northern half of TX on Sun with one disturbance followed by a weaker disturbance next Mon/Tue over the region. Note that both disturbances will be shearing out due to a convergent flow aloft, so that second disturbance is questionable. Note that the first disturbance on Sun/Mon will be interesting since it will likely be stronger and could phase with a weak northern stream disturbance. For now I like a wintry mix over N Texas and perhaps as much a 1” of sleet/snow for DFW, mainly just N/W of the city. Depending on the intensity of the initial cold push we could see some mixed ZR/sleet as far south as Conroe Mon AM before the disturbance departs. Still trying to decipher wintry precipitation this far in advance is a very tough call considering the uncertainty of the southern stream energy and the intensity of the initial cold blast.

The wall will be temporarily coming down...Fun pattern...Enjoy!

More Later...AT

[Cerlin]

Very interesting pattern shaping up over the next week to 10 days...

Key signals are:
• -EPO (strong negative signal supports several strong pushes of very cold air)
• +NAO and AO signals a very fast flow pattern and a decreased risk for a major winter storm...Quick hitting but potentially impactful winter events still likely
• MJO phase favor multiple pushes of colder air down to the Gulf Coast
• Some of the coldest air of the season likely over most of Texas during the first week of March...very rare, but not unheard of in past winters

This reminds me a lot of the early March 2002 weather pattern when we drop into the upper teens to low 20s from north-central Texas to Southeast Texas, which turned out to be the coldest air of that winter season. Obviously to get even close to those type of temperatures we’ll need to clear out and that probably will not happen until Wed AM, March 6 (Ash Wed). By that time we could see a freeze right down to or just inland from the TX coast. Overall still a lot of doubt on the intensity of the cold by I could see near 20F for DFW area and the upper 20s to low 30s for the HOU area...AUS/SAT mid 20s looks within reach. The timing of the front will likely be faster rather than slower...Early AM Sat over DFW and midday on Sat over the HOU area. I think the front on Wed-Thu is an indicator of how the colder air will progress across the state on Sat, which will be a bit faster than the slower GFS...We shall see.

Anyway the PNA trends remain neutral to negative which does signal more energy hanging back late this weekend into early next week. We’ll likely squeeze out a wintry mix over the northern half of TX on Sun with one disturbance followed by a weaker disturbance next Mon/Tue over the region. Note that both disturbances will be shearing out due to a convergent flow aloft, so that second disturbance is questionable. Note that the first disturbance on Sun/Mon will be interesting since it will likely be stronger and could phase with a weak northern stream disturbance. For now I like a wintry mix over N Texas and perhaps as much a 1” of sleet/snow for DFW, mainly just N/W of the city. Depending on the intensity of the initial cold push we could see some mixed ZR/sleet as far south as Conroe Mon AM before the disturbance departs. Still trying to decipher wintry precipitation this far in advance is a very tough call considering the uncertainty of the southern stream energy and the intensity of the initial cold blast.

The wall will be temporarily coming down...Fun pattern...Enjoy!

More Later...AT

Great analysis AT! I love having these seasoned vets to learn from on this site...so cool with such a great pattern coming up.

[Cpv17]

This sucks! We need more energy to hang back further west! Why does the SE keep on getting all the action lately? They’ve had round after round of precipitation there for what seems like a whole month now!

[wxman57]

Blah, blah, blah, Arctic Thunder. What he's not telling you, folks, is that both he and South Texas Storms have just acknowledged that this is the last gasp of winter for Texas. After next Tuesday, it's bring on the heat! Yep, that's what I just overheard them discussing.

Meanwhile, here's a 12Z GFS meteogram for the D-FW area. Not much moisture indicated. Precip ending as the temps reach the lower 30s on Monday. No precip Tuesday. Note that predicted dewpoint just below zero on Tuesday morning. That's dry!

[spencer817]

GEFS looking good! Don't jinx it now!

[Cpv17]

Euro run today will be very important. One thing I’ve noticed is that this is usually around the time the models will start to lose the cold air, but the GFS has actually trended stronger with the hp today which is a great sign. We’ll see what the Euro says in an hour.

[Brent]

don't think I've seen the GEFS look this good inside a week

[Cpv17]

Euro is back to having a 1050+mb high. Great sign!

[Brent]

Euro still looks like it is north of the metro Sunday flurries as it ends at best probably

and then dry cold Monday and Tuesday there's no moisture

[Cpv17]

Euro still looks like it is north of the metro Sunday flurries as it ends at best probably

and then dry cold Monday and Tuesday there's no moisture

All the moisture is east of us! Been that way for a long time now.

[spencer817]

Euro still looks like it is north of the metro Sunday flurries as it ends at best probably

and then dry cold Monday and Tuesday there's no moisture

All the moisture is east of us! Been that way for a long time now.

I would call that run successful. Plenty of moisture before the freeze, and globals of course run warm. That and the fact that the euro is consistent, and we're looking decent for now.

[Cerlin]

Precipitation will fluctuate a lot before the event. The GFS for instance has had it missing dfw to the south and north in multiple runs recently, but also right over the metro.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Op GFS continue to be the outlier with being progressive with the Midwest trough. All other models hang the trough back west. A progressive trough will not give us anything, but I'll side with the consensus and leave precip chances into early next week.

[Cerlin]

The Op GFS continue to be the outlier with being progressive with the Midwest trough. All other models hang the trough back west. A progressive trough will not give us anything, but I'll side with the consensus and leave precip chances into early next week.

I know you said that the GFS is showing a progressive trough and that won’t get us anything, but how come that model has shown us more and better winter precipitation than the others have?

[Cpv17]

Purple cell on the radar just a few miles to my south. Going to be a close call if it hits my house or not. Probably some pretty decent hail in that storm. Severe thunderstorm warning has just been issued. First one of the day in southeast Texas.