Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TexasStorm]

Nothing but moderate rain here in NW Plano.

[Brent]

My forecast updated, snow totals look about the same... highs lower:

Today Snow, mainly before noon. High near 36. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[PineyWoods]

Just cold rain here in Tyler. Nothing frozen at this time. Temp 32° here at 4:10am. Hope to see a transition in the next hour or two to snow.

[orangeblood]

Short range models aren't very accurate at this time...according to the RAP Dallas is supposed to have 2 inches of snow on the ground by now, nothing but cold rain

[iorange55]

Short range models aren't very accurate at this time...according to the RAP Dallas is supposed to have 2 inches of snow on the ground by now, nothing but cold rain

Yeah, just a few ice pellets mixing in here. I do still think we will see snow, but I am starting to wonder about the 4+ inch totals.

[Brent]

Short range models aren't very accurate at this time...according to the RAP Dallas is supposed to have 2 inches of snow on the ground by now, nothing but cold rain

Yeah, just a few ice pellets mixing in here. I do still think we will see snow, but I am starting to wonder about the 4+ inch totals.

Me too... we're gonna need some insane rates.

[orangeblood]

Yeah, just doesn't add up...you'll need 2 to 2.5 inch per hour rates to get some of these totals that the models are showing...not happening

[ColdFusion]

33 here in Plano, forecast low was 29. Just not cold enough. Good call making the kids get to bed early.

[DougNTexas]

This is kinda weird. I expected snow by now. Just a cold rain at my house.

[Brent]

Surface temps aren't the issue... I've been sitting at 31-32 since midnight with a cold rain and occasional sleet... it's the air aloft...

[Tejas89]

FWD discussion out. No winter storm warning due to later than expected transition to snow and temps hovering around 32 during snowfall. Warm nose still present but will disappear as the ULL gets closer. 3-5" DFW and east along I-20. 1-3" north and south of that swath.

Texas Thundertruck looks awfully sad chasing the snow right now. She also seems to think the snow will start when temps get below freezing.

[iorange55]

Surface temps aren't the issue... I've been sitting at 31-32 since midnight with a cold rain and occasional sleet... it's the air aloft...

Correct, which is why we should still see some snow before the precip ends.

...at least I hope.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE IS BEING SENT AT THE "LAST MINUTE"
HERE BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS FOR EVIDENCE OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

VIRTUALLY ALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RANGE FROM 4-10 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE DFW AREA TO THE NORTHEAST TO PARIS...AND TO THE EAST
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR TOWARDS TYLER.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL STATIONS ARE REPORTING ALL
RAIN RIGHT NOW. A 09Z KDAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF
PLUS 5 DEG C AT ABOUT 5,000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THIS WILL
DISAPPEAR ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR WITHIN THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...HOWEVER IT`S VERY
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH MODEL QPF EQUALS REALLY COLD RAIN
VERSUS SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF THE DECISION TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING OR
NOT...WE DECIDED NOT TO BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 32 DEGREES DURING PERIODS OF SNOWFALL...AND
BECAUSE OF THE LATER THAN EXPECTED CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING. IF THINGS GET REALLY OUT OF CONTROL LATER ON...AN UPGRADE
IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE MOST RELEVANT TIME TO MAKE THAT
DECISION WAS RIGHT NOW AT 4 AM. MOST SCHOOLS...BUSINESSES AND
GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS ARE MAKING CALLS BETWEEN 4-6 AM WHETHER TO
HOLD SCHOOL/BUSINESS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
BE UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING EVEN AFTER
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW BECAUSE IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF SOCIETAL RESPONSE.

HERE`S WHAT WE THINK WILL HAPPEN:

WIDESPREAD VERY COLD RAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MIDLAND MOVES EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER MILE. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD BRIEFLY PICK UP TO 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR...OF VERY WET...SLUSHY TYPE SNOW. IF A
CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND HAPPENS TO INTERSECT RUSH HOUR
TRAFFIC...IMPACTS COULD BRIEFLY BE VERY HIGH DIRECTLY UNDER THE
BAND.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES FROM THE
DFW AREA EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
FARTHER NORTH AND SOUTH...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE MORE
LIKELY. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

[Tejas89]

Dallas and Grand Prairie ISDs opening on time.

[iorange55]

I don't see this happening...

[gpsnowman]

NBC 5 now says 6 o'clock transition to snow.

[DougNTexas]

am or pm?

[TexasF6]

Longhorn WX Center has sleet!!!!! (NW Austin)

[Tammie]

Just transitioned to sleet in Denton. 31 degrees.

[weatherdude1108]

Woke up around 4:30 am to what sounded like small hail/ice pellets. Then it got softer to a light rain. Then stopped. Back to bed for now.