Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6301 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:10 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Yeah I know it's been frustrating there lately, but I still think south central TX will get in on the wet fun in March. Long-range guidance is beginning to indicate this as well.


What are you seeing? I still don’t see much on the models for the next couple weeks. Most of the rain looks east of Texas, but hey I just picked up 5” today so who knows lol I definitely didn’t expect to get a flood today.


I'm seeing signs that the southern stream storm track will finally become active again in the latest Euro, Canadian, and GFS ensembles. Also the past few runs of the operational GFS are showing a wet period in Texas in the extended period as well.


Bring it on STS :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6302 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:36 pm

the SOI plunged about 10-14 days ago right? Should be seeing more STJ surprises soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6303 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:40 pm

Nice storm in Houston now. Man I missed thunderstorms!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6304 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:44 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Nice storm in Houston now. Man I missed thunderstorms!


The storm that went over my house today was incredible. Top 10 all time for me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6305 Postby Haris » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:10 pm

It’s still storming in Houston... was this in the forecast ???
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6306 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:19 pm

Haris wrote:It’s still storming in Houston... was this in the forecast ???


Yes, just not to this extent. There are widespread totals of 2-6” all over southeast Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6307 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:37 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
gboudx wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Watch for a massive temp bust on Thu across N and NE TX. Forecast is for mid 50s but may only see mid 30s with a rain sleet mix.


This Thursday or next?
This Thursday

Yea this Thu. Watch the NAM.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6308 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:39 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Haris wrote:It’s still storming in Houston... was this in the forecast ???


Yes, just not to this extent. There are widespread totals of 2-6” all over southeast Texas.



Would love a precip bust of relative magnitude in dfw sun on...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6309 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:46 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
gboudx wrote:
This Thursday or next?
This Thursday

Yea this Thu. Watch the NAM.

Looks like a super small potential for wintry mix around DFW in 2 days!!

EDIT: would like to point out that the WRF supports this as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6310 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:34 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:This Thursday

Yea this Thu. Watch the NAM.

Looks like a super small potential for wintry mix around DFW in 2 days!!

EDIT: would like to point out that the WRF supports this as well.

It is a dense shallow air mass that is creeping south. Look at OK today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6311 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:03 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Haris wrote:It’s still storming in Houston... was this in the forecast ???


Yes, just not to this extent. There are widespread totals of 2-6” all over southeast Texas.



Would love a precip bust of relative magnitude in dfw sun on...


yes please

GFS still very progressive and Sunday is just cold and dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6312 Postby Haris » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:14 pm

the icon is sooo cold!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6313 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:18 pm

Haris wrote:the icon is sooo cold!


so cold and yet dry... Sunday is rain before the cold air
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6314 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:21 pm

Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:the icon is sooo cold!


so cold and yet dry... Sunday is rain before the cold air


That's what I'm afraid we're going to be seeing with this event. Cold and dry...ugh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6315 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:40 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:the icon is sooo cold!


so cold and yet dry... Sunday is rain before the cold air


That's what I'm afraid we're going to be seeing with this event. Cold and dry...ugh.


yeah I'm trying to not set myself up for another disappointment here(in a winter full of them) and I see reasons to be optimistic but I just dunno, it wouldn't surprise me at all if its cold and dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6316 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:48 pm

I’m not getting optimistic and excited because I have confidence in our luck, I’m getting optimistic and excited because this is really our last shot at winter and I haven’t gotten enough excitement yet...so I’m allowing myself to get excited for this one even if secretly my confidence isn’t great.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6317 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:21 am

Models are blahhh. They aren’t even really that cold imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6318 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:41 am

Cpv17 wrote:Models are blahhh. They aren’t even really that cold imo.


the GFS is blah but the Euro/EPS almost challenges some records here and would be coldest temps of the entire winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6319 Postby spencer817 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:45 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Models are blahhh. They aren’t even really that cold imo.


the GFS is blah but the Euro/EPS almost challenges some records here and would be coldest temps of the entire winter


GEFS is great for sleet, an inch mean of the stuff. FV3 has a winter storm as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6320 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:45 am

spencer817 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Models are blahhh. They aren’t even really that cold imo.


the GFS is blah but the Euro/EPS almost challenges some records here and would be coldest temps of the entire winter


GEFS is great for sleet, an inch mean of the stuff. FV3 has a winter storm as well.


I was more talking about temps but yeah on the precip front the GEFS is more excited than the EPS

the Euro has 19 at DFW, the airport hasn't even hit the teens the entire winter
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