Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TomballEd]

Im expecting at least 48 hours of below freezing temperatures in se texas, schools definitely will be closed tuesday, but wouldnt be surprised if schools close on wednesday and possibly even thursday with snow/ice being very slow to melt, dont see us getting out of the 30’s until late after noon on thursday. but even then their could be a 2nd system that moves through bringing another round of mixed precipitation depending on temperatures at that time

I used to live up North. Snow pack goes down with temps below freezing with the sun out. The top of the snow melts from radiation and snow sublimates. A couple of sunny days will remove 1 or 2 inches of snow/slush except in the shade. 6 or 8 inch 6Z Euro would obviously last longer, and snow that melts quickly on sun heated roads will turn to ice again. Euro would mean an extra day or two after the storm w/ road issues.

A Euro type snowfall leads to crusty snow, a thin layer of ice on top of snow for a day or two. Walking isn't fun, crashing through the ice with each step. Just saying snow with daytime temps just below freezing doesn't last long with full sun.

[Stratton23]

Tomballed the euro also has .10-.25 of ice which would take longer to melt given sleet and snow will be on top of it , id probably keep schools closed through thursday just to be careful, the euro has us getting to maybe 31 degrees for a high on wednesday , thats not warm enough to melt things fast, even on thursday the euro only has mid 30’s for highs (35-37 degrees) that would melt things more, but still not fast enough, temperatures drop below freezing again thursday night

[wxman22]

I'm assuming you're speaking about your area? As I had snow all day last Thursday and saw up to 3 inches of accumulation here.

I had sleet then snow. Got about 3.5 so not bad. Covered the grass. Not complaining about that storm. Just hard to get a repeat.

I do agree though with the SE ridge in play and shallower air the next storm system may end up more ice than snow.

Right on queue the EURO shows an ice storm setup in NW Texas and Oklahoma. LOL

[txtwister78]

I had sleet then snow. Got about 3.5 so not bad. Covered the grass. Not complaining about that storm. Just hard to get a repeat.

I do agree though with the SE ridge in play and shallower air the next storm system may end up more ice than snow.

Right on queue the EURO shows an ice storm setup in NW Texas and Oklahoma. LOL

https://i.ibb.co/7vKsGfj/index-13.png

https://i.ibb.co/prMZzPX/index-15.png

In the spring that would be a severe weather outbreak.

[rwfromkansas]

Is the PNA not going negative now as was predicted for weeks?

Also, just saw Chuck Doswell passed away. Remember he was a biggie with storms.

[869MB]

Is the PNA not going negative now as was predicted for weeks?

Also, just saw Chuck Doswell passed away. Remember he was a biggie with storms.

I’m really sorry to hear that. I swear I was just thinking about him last night.

[txtwister78]

HRRR wind chill temps Monday morning.

[sphelps8681]

School closed at the district I work for in Lumberton for Tuesday. They will monitor for Wednesday. Well thank goodness.

[wxman57]

12Z EC gave up on the next Gulf low this Thu/Fri, so no second snow event in TX this week. Every day, we edge closer to the best month of the year, July!

[Stratton23]

Now thats a good joke!

[MississippiWx]

12Z EC gave up on the next Gulf low this Thu/Fri, so no second snow event in TX this week. Every day, we edge closer to the best month of the year, July!

To be such a lover of warmth, you surely have a cold heart.

[Snowman67]

NWS Hou/Galv just issued a winter storm watch.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

[snownado]

12Z EC gave up on the next Gulf low this Thu/Fri, so no second snow event in TX this week. Every day, we edge closer to the best month of the year, July!

To be such a lover of warmth, you surely have a cold heart.

There are worse things to have.

[sphelps8681]

When models come out next can ya'll share the image? I am in the line of fire on this system in Lumberton, Tx and just want to stay updated so I know what to expect. Thanks to all of you.

[Brent]

TWC is very bullish that purple NE of Houston is 5+ inches

[captainbarbossa19]

I do agree though with the SE ridge in play and shallower air the next storm system may end up more ice than snow.

Right on queue the EURO shows an ice storm setup in NW Texas and Oklahoma. LOL

https://i.ibb.co/7vKsGfj/index-13.png

https://i.ibb.co/prMZzPX/index-15.png

In the spring that would be a severe weather outbreak.

Yes would be a great shear setup plus strong CVA.

[txtwister78]

Afternoon forecast discussion from NWS Austin/San Antonio

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Key Messages:

- There is very high confidence (near 100%) that hard freezes will
occur Sunday night through Tuesday night. Protect People, Pets,
Plants, and Pipes from the cold weather.

- There is a high chance (60-70%) of winter precipitation occurring
Monday night into Tuesday morning across the eastern Hill Country, I-
35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, with increasing confidence of minor
to moderate travel impacts.

- There is increasing confidence in more of a wintry mix of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow, rather than all snow for the I-35 Corridor
and Coastal Plains.

- Winter weather products/headlines will likely be needed by Sunday.

The long-advertised winter weather event will begin Monday evening
and last through late Tuesday morning. With regard to the cold, we
do expect additional Cold Weather Advisories each day, with the
possibility of just issuing an advisory for most locations through
the entirety of the event. Further thought will be given to this
potential tomorrow. In any matter, it's going to be cold for several
days, with the potential for temperatures to remain at or below
freezing over the Hill Country for over 36 hours Monday night
through Wednesday morning. Now is the time to protect those outdoor
pipes to prevent freezing up during that time frame.

The biggest concerns with this forecast package revolve around
precip type and amounts and both of those things remain in flux with
low to medium confidence in amounts and location at this time. The
latest suite of 12Z model guidance has come in with continued dry
air in the dendritic growth zone (Typically between -10 to -20 C).
Despite a near sub freezing to completely below freezing layer
between the surface and 700mb, this dry layer in the dendritic
growth zone could hamper ice crystal formation and lead to more of a
wintry mix than snow for most locations during this event. We'll
need to continue monitoring guidance to see how precipitation types
unfold.

Precipitation should quickly come to an end late Tuesday morning as
the coastal low to the south shifts eastward, pulling with it any
moisture remaining at the surface to the east. Temperatures will
remain cold despite some breaks in the clouds Tuesday afternoon,
with highs remaining in the lower to middle 30s. Tuesday night may
actually be the coldest night of the entire period with lows in the
teens for all locations outside of places along the Rio Grande. We
should finally climb back out of the freezer Wednesday afternoon
with highs back in the 40s. 50s can be expected by Thursday and
Friday, with highs back near normal and in the 60s by Saturday.

[TomballEd]

Tomballed the euro also has .10-.25 of ice which would take longer to melt given sleet and snow will be on top of it , id probably keep schools closed through thursday just to be careful, the euro has us getting to maybe 31 degrees for a high on wednesday , thats not warm enough to melt things fast, even on thursday the euro only has mid 30’s for highs (35-37 degrees) that would melt things more, but still not fast enough, temperatures drop below freezing again thursday night

I wouldn't complain about no school next week.

[bubba hotep]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

[txtwister78]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

Yeah I agree. It's really hard to get snow along the coast whenever there is that much moisture nearby. Models don't do a good job until you get closer and then that's when things can change in that category. The one thing that may help is the position of the low (further off the coast) than what we saw a week ago when it was hugging the coast surging that warmer air aloft.