Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

18Z gfs shows a lesser storm. Still has snow for North Texas, just lesser amounts. It does however keep the cold around awhile almost looks like this week.

Crazy how similar next week could end up being.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

and before i go...... i encourage those who are depressed or nervous about the situation to look at the similarities between this event and the 2004 event. Look where the ULL was when the event began in 2004, and look where it is now. Not saying its an identical situation, but the ULL in 2004 was much further east then where it is now. Good news is that the ULL is moving east

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bro/rese ... orales.pdf

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WHICH HAS BEGUN TO EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SHEARED AS IT GETS
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN US BY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY HAS A POSITIVE TILT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AHEAD OF IT. THIS ORIENTATION IS USUALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR GETTING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER A POTENT VORT MAX
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WHICH THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON. THIS VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF
LATER THIS EVENING ORIENTING THE OVERALL FEATURE IN A MORE NEUTRAL
POSITION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE TO
SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A 15Z SOUNDING FROM COLLEGE STATION SHOWED A SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700MB WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THAT TO NEAR 500MB.
THE DRY LAYER FALLS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO WE WILL NEED
SOME MOISTENING FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN LATE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A NEAR SURFACE LAYER ALSO REMAINS
DRY SO INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE UNTIL
SATURATION OCCURS. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW IS THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT.

CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS AND ADVISORIES...AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE. SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR NORTH TEXAS...SO SMALL
AMOUNTS OF LIQUID QPF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE FLUFFY POWDERY TYPE OF SNOW EXPECTED. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO RESULTING IN AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE METROPLEX. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE SREF AND WRF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH CLUSTER BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AND EXPAND IT NORTH A ROW OF COUNTIES. WHILE THERE COULD BE
1 TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX...WILL FORGO ISSUING AN
ADVISORY NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POPS IN THOSE AREAS. THIS SNOW MAY
ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME TRACTION IN AREAS WHERE ICE REMAINS ON THE
ROAD.

ONE CONCERN REGARDING NEWEST MODEL DATA ARRIVING...LATEST RUN OF
THE NAM AND SOME SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN AREA
OF LIFT CLOSE TO A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THESE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS THE AREA HOWEVER THE
SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL
FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS PREVAILS. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COUPLE OF STRONG FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WEAKER FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES DONT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE RETAINED 20 POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
RED RIVER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE QPF WITHIN THE GUIDANCE AND SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM RUN TO RUN. AS OF THE
LATEST RUN...THE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
SINCE THIS IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE 30 POPS IN AND MENTION
RAIN/SNOW. PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Ntxw]

Hmm deformation zone and high ratios, where have we heard that before? Hopefully this thing will cut itself off a bit tighter. If so could be a fun day tomorrow across the metroplex and SE counties.

Still hoping Portastorm get his 1-3 inches! It will be very close!!!

[SouthernMet]

15Z SREF Continues trends.. Along with 21Z RR..
So NAM,RR,SREF,HRRR short range models with good track records within 24 hours show that obviously we have a decent amount of lift for 1-3" in DFW.

Other global models still depict light snow/flurries with light accum in DFW but congrats to the short range models that sniffied out a alternative scenario

The overall conclusion...(Including ALL models) Is that the bulk of the heavier precip will be east of I-35 in TX. The winners in this one as NTX pointed out should be NE of line from Georgetown to Waco to Tyler. But as Ft Worth NWS said watch that defromation zone development.

[gboudx]

Delkus just showed 1-3" on the east side of the metroplex, tonight and tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

Hmm deformation zone and high ratios, where have we heard that before? Hopefully this thing will cut itself off a bit tighter. If so could be a fun day tomorrow across the metroplex and SE counties.

Still hoping Portastorm get his 1-3 inches! It will be very close!!!

Ntxw, one of the local mets in SA said that the snow chance is dropping every hour and is now close to zero. Is that true? I thought it wasn't supposed to start until after 7 in SA?

[iorange55]

Ntxw, one of the local mets in SA said that the snow chance is dropping every hour and is now close to zero. Is that true? I thought it wasn't supposed to start until after 7 in SA?

He said that? I wouldn't say it's zero models are still showing a chance there and up towards Austin. Maybe he has extra data or something, though.

[CaptinCrunch]

Delkus just showed 1-3" on the east side of the metroplex, tonight and tomorrow.

Delkus is about 1 county to far East on this one, I say 1 inch or less west of FTW, 1-2 in the metro area, and maybe 3 inches east of Dallas.


NOT AN OFFICAL FORECAST.............................

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, one of the local mets in SA said that the snow chance is dropping every hour and is now close to zero. Is that true? I thought it wasn't supposed to start until after 7 in SA?

I wouldn't say zero. There was never a high chance for SA as it was. Most models showed flurries to a dusting at best, most of it would be closer to Austin and to the east/ne. Be patient, let the radar play out and we'll have a better handle Hope for the best, don't have too high of an expectation. Snow in South Texas is extremely hard to come by.

[Tejas89]

What time should we start seeing the radar light up for north Texas? Need to know if I should stop for extra coffee on the way home.

[South Texas Storms]

This is his facebook post: "As the hours go by our snow chances are dwindling down close to ZERO - little moisture, and a poor lifting mechanism in a weak upper-level low, spells scattered flurries at best. The jet carrying the abundant Pacific moisture is WAY east of here... and moving east. Snow showers scattered over the western part of the state (underneath the upper low) are disappearing too."

Does anyone agree with his statement? I'm worried my family there will see nothing...

[angletontx2]

i knew us in SE texas would get screwed again...this reminds me of a song, how about..turn out the lights the party's over?...everyone sing along! lol

[iorange55]

This is his facebook post: "As the hours go by our snow chances are dwindling down close to ZERO - little moisture, and a poor lifting mechanism in a weak upper-level low, spells scattered flurries at best. The jet carrying the abundant Pacific moisture is WAY east of here... and moving east. Snow showers scattered over the western part of the state (underneath the upper low) are disappearing too."

Does anyone agree with his statement? I'm worried my family there will see nothing...

Hmph that has me stumped. Anyways, the event wasn't even supposed to start this early....but he is the pro. I disagree with him, but that doesn't mean much.

[downsouthman1]

This is his facebook post: "As the hours go by our snow chances are dwindling down close to ZERO - little moisture, and a poor lifting mechanism in a weak upper-level low, spells scattered flurries at best. The jet carrying the abundant Pacific moisture is WAY east of here... and moving east. Snow showers scattered over the western part of the state (underneath the upper low) are disappearing too."

Does anyone agree with his statement? I'm worried my family there will see nothing...

Hmph that has me stumped. Even for the western part of the state. The event wasn't even supposed to start this early....but he is the pro. I disagree with him, but that doesn't mean much.

Water vapor loops are showing moisture starting to pool ahead of the ULL.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[cheezyWXguy]

So what does this mean for us in north texas? I keep hearing about how the state is being robbed of moisture but totals for our area keep being gradually increased.

[iorange55]

If indeed this dwindles into nothing the HRRR model is going to suffer a huge bust.

[Ntxw]

From the local news, schools in the N TX are once again closed including Dallas and Fort Worth.

[South Texas Storms]

iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon ‎...oh, and the National Weather Service Office here has been one of the worst I've ever seen... most of them hug the models like its their mommy too".

This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...

[BigB0882]

That was uncalled for. Where does he get his information from if not the models, a crystal ball?