Pacific Northwest Weather

[cloud9]

I'm not an expert, I just love the weather

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard... I just sent you a PM

[andycottle]

From what Tim had said about the long range weather, think it was, I too am not any major cold weather antime soon. And infact looking at todays 06z and 12z GFS, it appears that the Jet Stream keeps on with nonal flow in the short and long term with just a few 'bumps' here and there. Looks like a decent High pressure may try and set up over the upper Western States somewhere around Feb, 5th. Though that is subject to change, and as snow-wizzard in doing....Im not ready to write off winter either.

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

1/20/05 LK Goodwin WA
1:27:16 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 56.5
Humidity (%) 81.3
Wind (mph) S 3.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.95
Dew Point: 51.0 ºF

[Brian_from_bellingham]

CPC talked about an amplified high pressure system in the west. Any idea where it is supposed to set up? Any chance it will retrograde to 150W?

They do call for cooler the normal weather, but did not mention the northwest in the discussion, nor mention any arctic air, but did say the Rockies would get colder. Often our part of the world is one where there is the most uncertainty.

[AnthonyC]

Just to let people know, February tends to be the "snowiest" month for the lowlands. If there's ever a chance of lowland snow throughout the winter season, February is the most likely month. February is also a month of extreme. I think TT-SEA is being too pessimistic, but I also think Snow_Wizzard is being too optimistic. Looking at latest models, seems a zonal flow will try to take shape in the middle of next week. By the end of the month, 500 mb heights are down to 528, which isn't conduscive for lowland snow. But it would probably bring the snow level down to 1000-1500 feet, which is awesome for the mountains. And what about the beginning of February? Looks like a zonal flow, although there's a clump of arctic air bottled up in northern British Columbia. But latest models want to build a ridge over the Pacific Northwest, sending that cold air east. Only time will tell. Another thing...today's ALOT cooler than yesterday...it actually feels like February instead of May today. Currently 50 F with cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Looks like another heavy does of rain this weekend. I JUST WANT SNOW AND ARCTIC COLD!! lol.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Anthony is right, and since the Dec 1996 snowfall, our biggest snowfall happened in Feb, and March. Feb 2001 we had a foot of snow at my house, and in March 2002 we had up to 8" here.

[AnthonyC]

R-Dub,

How are the video recordings coming along? Any word from King 5? Just keep me informed, but no rush man!!

Anthony

[W13]

Wow, a lot cooler than yesterday here. We are sitting at 52 F, compared to yesterdays high of 64 F, today feels like a normal, January day ... almost.

Rain is starting to fall again, up to 0.06" so far.

[W13]

Latest NWS Forecast Discussion:

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS WRN WA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE OPEN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS
EVENING...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AND PRECIP SHOULD END. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRI MORNING...DRYING OUT THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OUT AROUND 150W WILL START TO PUSH
WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WRN WA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN
SHOULD FIRST PUSH ONTO THE NORTH COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE PUGET SOUND INTERIOR TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE TRAIN OF
MOISTURE SHOVES NOSES ONSHORE...IT SHOULD TURN UP STATIONARY ON
SATURDAY AND START TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AS THE MOISTURE FETCH STARTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AND WE GET THE ADDED INGREDIENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL MAX OUT. THE 18Z ETA SHOWS A MAXIMUM 12-HOUR
RAINFALL RATE OF OVER 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REPRISE FLOODING
CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...THIS UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT LOOKS SIMILAR IN
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE TO THE RAINFALL EVENT OF A FEW DAYS AGO...SO
WOULD LOOK FOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF FLOODING. WILL UPDATE THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
CONSIDER ANY NEW FLOOD WATCHES.

FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF OUR COAST WILL SIT AND
MEANDER WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES GETTING EJECTED UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY...PERHAPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE OVER WRN WA...BRINGING AN
EVENTUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS. HANER

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard...

Looking more closely at the Palmer records it is amazing how the annual snowfall totals have come down so sharply in the last 20-30 years.

Global warming?? Influence of population growth in Seattle on the climate??

It makes me strongly believe that harsh winters and huge snowfall totals are a thing of the past here (at least in our lifetime).

You were born 50 years too late!!

[andrewr]

Remember when settlers first got here in Seattle they described it as mild. Then obviously something changed in the 1860's to a colder pattern and it's probably going back into a mild one. Then in the next who knows how many years, Palmer will be averaging more snow than the 30's through the 80's. The exciting part is when is the pattern going to shift. It will sometime, lets just hope it's sooner rather than later.

[W13]

Wizzard...

Looking more closely at the Palmer records it is amazing how the annual snowfall totals have come down so sharply in the last 20-30 years.

Global warming?? Influence of population growth in Seattle on the climate??

It makes me strongly believe that harsh winters and huge snowfall totals are a thing of the past here (at least in our lifetime).

You were born 50 years too late!!

Or, could it be H.A.A.R.P.? (for those of you not in the know, H.A.A.R.P. is a program started by the U.S. Government to try and control the Earth's weather. Could they be succeeding?

http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/ (the offical site of H.A.A.R.P.)

[snow_wizzard]

That is correct...In the 1850s the reputation for the so called Italian skies and all of that got started. I don't know if that was really an accurate comparison or not...but anyway. In the 1860s we had some winters that would be considered harsh even by midwest standards today. That was followed by rather mild in the 1870s, but the 1880s and 90s were tremendously snowy. Even more snowy than the infamous 1950s. There is no doubt it is all part of a natural cycle. I am quite excited by the fact we have been in this current mild period for almost 30 years, so a change should occur very soon, if it has not already begun. I guess we can only hope, but I think it is very likely that colder and snowier winters should be seen very soon. Even many of the local experts say we are due to switch back to our cold climate phase. This part of the country has the most dramatic climate phases of anywhere in the US. The difference between our cold phases and mild phases is like the difference between night and day. That even shows up in things like the little ice age and the Younger Dryas cold phases. Evidence points toward Western Europe, SE Alaska, Western Canada, and the Pacific NW as being the most profoundly effected by these cold periods. That is due to the fact that marine influence becomes less of a factor during the colder periods.

If you look at the Seattle records from 1938 - 1945 you will find that we had a very warm period then also. In fact 1939 - 41 was even more mild than what we have been seening. After that, the bottom fell out beginning in 1946.

By the way...Covington had a low of 44 and high 53 today...cooler than almost anywhere. After the next round of warm rain this weekend, the models show a sharp drop back to near normal by early next week. A sharp cold front will come through Sunday night and turn the precip to snow in the mountains. Step 1 toward us seeing more cold weather.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

So, SnowWizzard, what do you think is the cause of these natural cycles? I hope you are right and that it is not the global warming that we hear so much about. I have heard talk of the PDO and 20-30 year cycles, and that supposedly we may have entered or will enter the negative phase of the PDO.

When they have had these very snowy and harsh winters, is it just that we get more set ups similar to the one we just had, with high pressure at 150W and northerly flow (which is often dry), or is there a totally different kind of pattern that we have not seen, and is the atmosphere in general just colder? It seems now so hard to get arctic weather, and so many times it hints at coming our way and then heads east instead. I just wonder what made it so much easier for the cold to get here in the past.

Where have you heard other experts say that we might start to get colder? I would love to read some articles if they are online, it is very interesting.

[Cumulonimbus]

Wizzard:
I will be the very 1st person to congratulate you when the flakes fall and we get snow next month. This discussion is very interesting and all you are correct. The pattern DOES change and certainly has done so many times in the past. Becoming part of the "older" generation makes me indeed wish I had been born earlier and had seen the "big time" snow and cold here. I was born in Wisconsin so I do remember winters there. Going out on a frozen lake and listening to the ice crack and rumble as it shifted around is something I will never forget. I moved here when I was 10 and still miss the midwest a LOT. If you want to see a REAL thunderstorm..go back to the midwest or at least east of the Rockies.
I have heard of the cold and snow and moved here as the last of it occurred. 1968-1969 I was living at sea level on Bainbridge Island and an arctic front moved south out of BC on the morning of Dec 27th. By the morning of Dec 30th the temperature at my parents place outside showed 0(ZERO) degrees. If any of you have looked at the weekly weather maps you can see how the temps plummeted. The map for Dec 30th shows 7 degrees in Seattle. A very strong and very wet low moved northeast from the Hawaiian Islands and before the snow turned to rain we got 15 inches. And then it warmed up and rained until Jan 11th. And then the darndest thing happened which I have not seen since. The polar vortex which was located in the far northeastern part of BC began to move SOUTHWEST and ended up in southern BC just above the central part of the state nearthe border. At the same time a strong high built up at about 150 degrees(sound familiar??) and both remained fairly stationary for about 2 weeks. A low was located off the sw tip of Vancouver Island. Heights aloft were very low and cold air dropped to the surface. Another arctic front moved south well into Oregon on the 20th and the temp in Seattle did not go above 32 degrees for 10 days. I am not sure but that record still stands today I believe. It snowed for almost 2 1/2 weeks. Lows would top the ridge, slide down the BC coast and move into western Oregon. It just snowed and snowed and snowed and most of it was POWDER because highs were only about 25 and lows in the teens. We had 45 inches at the airport(which had one of the lower totals) and with the storm in Dec we had a total of almost 60 inches of snow that winter. I have not seen one even close to that since. And the funny thing about THIS winter is that everyone has been comparing the pattern to....1968-1969. And we ALMOST hit the jackpot 2 weeks ago. Had that arctic air moved SOUTH instead of east-southeast can you imagine what would have happened last weekend thru Monday?? Talk about deeply disappointed.
I have also read that temps in the 1800's were so cold that people skated COMPLETELY ACROSS the rivers in Portland.
Can it happen again..sure it can and probably will. I just hope I love long enough to see it. One should always have hope and I do. But until the cold air gets well entrenched here I am just taking a day at a time.
I think it was 3 years ago..maybe 4 that we had a very similar winter in regard to lack of precip and snow in the mountains. The following winter...Mt Baker broke the worlds record for snowfall.
I repeat...I will be more than happy to congratulate you when it snows wizzard so BRING IT ON!(and more than 1 or 2 inches please)

Alex

[R-Dub]

I did a little more checking today at work of our weather records. I counted the number of closures the golf course had, from 1991 to present. When the golf course I work at closes, it either means that there is snow cover, and or the high temps does not get above 34 degrees. Here is the count.....

Winters of........

'91-'92 5 days closed
'92-'93 53 days closed
'93-'94 20 days closed
'94-'95 31 days closed
'95-'96 28 days closed
'96-'97 24 days closed
'97-'98 6 days closed
'98-'99 9 days closed
'99-'00 2 days closed
'00-'01 13 days closed
'01-'02 14 days closed
'02-'03 1 day closed
'03-'04 14 days closed
'04-'05 16 days closed so far

Just found it kind of interesting, 1992-1997 were quite good winters, then it fell off, but the last couple years have gotten colder again. Its a cycle type of thing. Just like in the '80's First part of the '80's were mild, then 83-85 were great, then 86-88 were mild, then 89-93 were great winters, and so on. I think the rest of this winter will be good, and next winter will be awesome. Nothing scientific, just my observations

[AnthonyC]

Whatever happened to the days when afternoon high temperatures were stuck in the upper teens, lower 20s and overnight lows dipped into the single digits? Whatever happened to the days when the entire lowland region would receive 3-6 inches of snow, have 5-7 days of brutal cold and then slowly warm up? It seems like our climate has changed drastically over the past 5-10 years. My physics teacher spoke an interesting discussion today. We were briefly talking about snow/cold weather in Western Washington. He said the "old days" were great; it would snow four, five inches and then freeze for the next week...closing school for three, four days at a time. He also brought up 1990 because many people were interested. He said that event was historic because it snowed 8 inches one day...everyone was sent home from school early...and then school was shut down the rest of the week. He says he hasn't seen it that cold since. It just seems it takes alot more things to fall into place before we see arctic air/snow in the lowlands. I remember when arctic cold meant 15-20 F with snow. Today, arctic cold for the lowlands means afternoon highs at freezing with overnight lows in the teens. That's NOT arctic cold, that's plain cold.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Anthony... I agree.

I think a small effect from global warming has big effects on a city like Seattle that is not truly a cold weather place.

I think small shifts in the global pattern have huge impacts here. Hence the return to warmer winters.

I believe with a few exceptions... this is the pattern for the rest of our lifetime. Maybe even warmer still.

[R-Dub]

I am going on the side of snowwiz on this one, I think its a pattern cycle thing, more then a global warming issue. My feeling is we are just starting to cycle back to the cold side now. Pineapple express, cold air, the swings have been fairly dramatic. I think we are just seeing the start of some wild weather that will happen over the next 10 yrs plus!!!