Texas Winter 2013-2014

[DonWrk]

Very interesting days ahead of us. I love the tricky forecasts. You get to see the mets really work and see who was right and who was wrong!

[TheProfessor]

Now this is rare, i don't check the weather channel often but i decided to check it and it has my high tomorrow at 32 degrees. the thing that surprised me is that their temperatures are almost always above NWS FWD. Anyways if they happen to be right that would mean a quite a bit of ice or snow for me. Also because the cold front has moved through already, it won't take as long for snow to accumulate tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

Deformation band, maybe that word will catch on with the weather service soon. Shift it's current model position by 30-50 miles, depedent on where the low moves, and you got yourself a surprise event.

I believe earlier in the week this storm was in Kansas courtesy of the GFS

NWS Lub actually has a graphic on how the heaviest and could shift. I hope it shifts another 50 miles or so to the southeast. That way most of North Texas will be in the 5 inch band.

[iorange55]

Pete Delkus playing catch up on Facebook...

Snow and ice!?! Looks like it could be a mess tomorrow!! The freezing line has moved into the Metroplex! I'll have a full update shortly.

[SouthernMet]

Could get pretty dicey in NW tx & southern OK tomorrow as they are expecting 3-6 inches of snow on top of a glazing of ice.
For those esp on the NW side of the dfw metroplex, stay tuned, because the cold front coming through ahead of schedule (as always) may have thrown temps off a bit for our low temps tonight, which will continue to drop throughout the day tomorrow.

NWS says they will issue a WWA sometime today.
Time to start watching short term trends, HRRR/RAP & real-time features.

[SouthernMet]

Btw Red Raider Fan thanks for copying my avi

[ndale]

EWX has put a chance of "rain and sleet" in my Thurs night and Fri forecast. We will see how that changes, still kind of far out there.

[gpsnowman]

Please no ice storm tomorrow. People will going to Super Bowl parties. And then go to work and school the next day, maybe. Plus, if there is ice around, what does that do to the temps on Monday? School delays or cancellations? Just a pretty snow is needed! Maybe a snowy surprise is in store for DFW. Looks like at least an icy mess for a big area. Question is, where?

[SouthernMet]

Please no ice storm tomorrow. People will going to Super Bowl parties. And then go to work and school the next day, maybe. Plus, if there is ice around, what does that do to the temps on Monday? School delays or cancellations? Just a pretty snow is needed! Maybe a snowy surprise is in store for DFW. Looks like at least an icy mess for a big area. Question is, where?

Remember - initially there will be a warm nose aloft keeping it from being an all snow event.. Sometimes (around thanksgiving) the warm nose will prevent winter precip all around. Although that doesn't look like the case..

the Fort Worth nws is doing a good job imo, showing a potential for sleet/freezing rain tomorrow morning then maybe changing to snow with 1-3inches to the NW.

And to answer your question monday morning lows are mid-upper 20's not too cold, but cold enough to freeze whatever may be in the streets. Cancellations may not be needed but delays are possible.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect as the week ahead progresses we will see two chances of Winter Weather across our Region before the week is done. The next Pacific short wave looks a bit stronger and with a new snow cover across the Central/Southern Plains, the chances only increase of less air mass modification. The Wednesday into early next Saturday strong Arctic short wave looks to offer significant forecast challenges as much colder air entrenches most of the Region and a strong Coastal low develops on Thursday. Over running moisture and the cold core nature of that 5H disturbance is going to give the guidance fits until around Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of S Central/SE Texas into Louisiana may not escape the wintry mischief during the late week time frame. The models are notorious for under estimating the depth of the Arctic cold air mass and usually play catch up this far S in such a pattern. Good luck N Texas tonight. It looks like a very interesting week ahead as we are in climatology 'Prime Time' across our Region for Winter Storms all the way to the NW Gulf Coast.

[SouthernMet]

I just don't want anyone to get caught off guard like Atlanta...

When you see TV mets telling people to expect rain less than 24 HOURS out, with the Super Bowl Sunday & schools/work monday----- but you have the National Weather Service warning that travel may be at risk with a quick moving ice/snow storm, issuing WSW/WWA. It's just not good communication, you have to atleast warn your viewers of the possibility of a winter weather event, just so they can be prepared and be on the safe side.

[Ntxw]

Please no ice storm tomorrow. People will going to Super Bowl parties. And then go to work and school the next day, maybe. Plus, if there is ice around, what does that do to the temps on Monday? School delays or cancellations? Just a pretty snow is needed! Maybe a snowy surprise is in store for DFW. Looks like at least an icy mess for a big area. Question is, where?

Remember - initially there will be a warm nose aloft keeping it from being an all snow event.. Sometimes (around thanksgiving) the warm nose will prevent winter precip all around. Although that doesn't look like the case..

the Fort Worth nws is doing a good job imo, showing a potential for sleet/freezing rain tomorrow morning then maybe changing to snow with 1-3inches to the NW.

And to answer your question monday morning lows are mid-upper 20's not too cold, but cold enough to freeze whatever may be in the streets. Cancellations may not be needed but delays are possible.

The difference with this event is there is a potent 5h low overhead to cool the column. The snow to rain gradient will be tight but will be quick to change over. I don't think sleet/ice will be the dominant feature for prolonged periods. You are either raining or mostly snow under the deformation band.

[TheProfessor]

the 12z GFS and Euro will be very important. I predict that if the models continue to trend colder and wetter than NWS FWD will probably issue a winter storm watch for Denton,Collin,Tarrant,and the counties northwest of them and maybe Dallas county as well. Anyways the clouds at my house have a snowy look to them.

[Tammie]

Steve McCauley has freezing rain starting in Denton tomorrow morning at 8:00, while Pete Delkus has all snow. Interesting discrepancy between the two local mets.

[Portastorm]

NWS Weather Prediction Center believes the models have a good handle on the shortwave coming out of the Rockies. Don't look for any surprises in terms of it being stronger than what anyone anticipated or widely changing qpf values. This looks to be a "what you see is what you get" kind of deal. The key ultimately will be the track of the shortwave and that will define the winners and losers tomorrow in North Texas.

Good luck to my friends up north ... and just remember ... if it's snowing at your house tomorrow, take pictures and share with the rest of us!

Meanwhile, the longer range models still looking very good for a significant winter storm late next week for much of the state.

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 1 February 2014 9:31 CST

Good morning,

A complicated weather pattern has set up across the area. Additional changes are coming to northern and central Texas, but most of us will see some sort of precipitation. Exactly what type of precipitation falls will determine the areas that see impacts. This email will attempt to describe the areas, but the graphics which are attached may help. This email is going out early, thanks to Skywarn commitments. We may have additional information sent later this afternoon.

BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, elected officials, transportation officials/public works and other public safety officials should be prepared for the potential of wintry impacts for Sunday and early Monday, especially those along/north of I-20 and west of I-35/35W. Winter weather advisories are possible later today. Closely monitor updates, graphics, and additional information throughout the weekend.

AMOUNTS AND AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN: Areas of rain will begin Sunday, either in the late morning or early afternoon. In areas to the northwest (NW of a line from Breckenridge to Denton to Gainesville), there will likely be a quick transition to snow, with around 2” possible. Along I-20, from Eastland to the DFW Metroplex and then north to Paris, will be the transition zone. In this area there will be a tight gradient of areas that see nothing but a cold rain, to those receiving a mixture of rain, snow, and possibly some sleet. This will be the area of transition, and will need to be monitored closely on Sunday and early Monday.

TIMING: Sunday from 10AM to 6 PM. Refreezing of roads (if any) will occur after midnight Monday morning.

IMPACTS: Travel appears to be the biggest impacts. Slick spots on roads, and especially bridges and overpasses are likely on Sunday. The usual spots could be problematic, including Ranger Hill and I-35 between Sanger and Gainesville. Any remaining moisture will refreeze Monday morning, likely leading to slick spots. In areas that receive a rain/snow mix, there could be some ice accumulations on trees and power lines.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate on occurrence of snow or a mixture of rain/snow. Low confidence for the amounts and locations. Despite the low confidence in amounts and locations, any winter precipitation will produce impacts.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There appears to be some potential for banded snowfall (bursts of higher accumulations in a small area) that would allow for higher amounts. The most likely area for this appears to be west of I-35/35W and north of I-20.

This system has a lot (but not all) in common with the late November storm system that produced light amounts of wintry impacts in the northwest, and left much of the urbanized areas with nothing but a cold rain. This is possible once again. This system has little in common with the early December system, as the upper level system is much faster in this case.

It appears that only a few areas will receive moderate or major impacts. However, this is a dynamic system where the impacts are entirely dependent on subtle features (such as where the temperature is 30 degrees or less), so this system should be monitored closely.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is trending colder during the Wednesday into Friday time frame. It is also noteworthy the the GFS develops a Coastal Low over night Thursday into Friday near Brownsville and is a bit more progressive with the upper air disturbance tracking E across Northern Mexico. There are also 'hints' of phasing with yet another upper air short wave dropping SE from the Great Basin. While we are still a good 5 to 6 days out, expect changes in this very challenging forecast as the week moves forward. We will see.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 04 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 08 2014


...WET PATTERN TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ICE, AND SNOW ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES...

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE ONTO A COMMON THEME AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH COLD AIR BANKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES,
AND A MOIST STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE
RAIN AND SNOW AS THE IMPULSES COME ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES RECEIVING RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR
FRONT, AND SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE FIRST BIG
IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH A RELOADING OF ENERGY
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.


CISCO

[aggiecutter]

70% chance of sleet tomorrow night for the Texarkana area, with a low of 28. However, the big ticket item for my area appears to be Thursday night-Friday.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has just a little freezing rain in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area with sleet to the NW and snow up along the Red River northward into OK. This airmass is not that cold compared to earlier this week. I don't think you'll get any snow in the D-FW area this weekend.

[TheProfessor]

12Z GFS has just a little freezing rain in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area with sleet to the NW and snow up along the Red River northward into OK. This airmass is not that cold compared to earlier this week. I don't think you'll get any snow in the D-FW area this weekend.

Why must you always ruin the fun?