Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6541 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:09 pm

Stratton23 wrote:RGEM 18z more aggressive and not really suppressed


Yeah that's not unusual for that model. I think like the event last week it's a bit overdone. May have a good handle on where some of the heavier precip will fall but I think the totals are excessive.
1 likes   

Stratton23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2591
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
Location: Katy, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6542 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:11 pm

txtwister78 thGs probably true that its overdoing amounts, that being said, we didnt think some areas would see over a foot back in 2004 from that snow event even though that was southwest of houston, it probably is unlikely , that being said what it could be picking up on is a much faster transition to all snow, if that transition occurs faster, i wouldnt be surprised to see some really heavy amounts even exceeding 7-8 inches
1 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6543 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:15 pm

The Pacific tap looks like it may help with moisture.
3 likes   

txwxwatcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:00 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6544 Postby txwxwatcher » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:29 pm

Houston is in business, with snow expected to be on the ground until as late as Saturday. This is no event limited to accumulation on “grass and bridges” as one suggested earlier today. From Travis Herzog with our local ABC affiliate:

“ SUNDAY 2PM WINTER STORM UPDATE:

This looks like the real deal, y'all!

Over the last 24 hours we have seen virtually all computer modeling converge on Southeast Texas and Houston in particular for historic snowfall amounts.

We now have our first high-resolution look from the HRRR model, and it confirms what the global models have been showing. It only runs out to noon on Tuesday, where it already shows widespread snow totals of 1-3" in Southeast Texas with a band of 3-4" totals centered over Houston and extending eastward into Louisiana. There will be locally higher amounts perhaps double these totals, and the model shows it STILL snowing on its last frame at 12PM Tuesday.

I'll have much more on the timing of all this later here and on live TV at 5:30PM and 10PM, but I wanted to get the word out early that we all need to be prepared to be stuck wherever we rest our heads Monday night until at least Wednesday afternoon, and where the highest totals fall, roads may not be drivable until Thursday or Friday, especially those stretches not in direct sunshine. All the snow should be melted away by Saturday afternoon.

We'll keep you looped in, and the easiest way for you to get the latest info is to join us on live TV or the live stream at abc13.com/live. Full forecast here: abc13.com/forecast”
0 likes   

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6545 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:31 pm

Stratton23 wrote:txtwister78 thGs probably true that its overdoing amounts, that being said, we didnt think some areas would see over a foot back in 2004 from that snow event even though that was southwest of houston, it probably is unlikely , that being said what it could be picking up on is a much faster transition to all snow, if that transition occurs faster, i wouldnt be surprised to see some really heavy amounts even exceeding 7-8 inches


Yeah 2004 was a different setup. Different players on the field (weather map wise) and so it's important to recognize the similarities and differences as you watch these models put totals out. In 2004 we had a pretty big upper level low that dropped south way into Mexico similar to last week (but further south) with a coastal low developing in tandem, so moisture was not an issue then. Cold air at all levels is in place no question so we have that but the system coming out of the west is an open wave and pretty flat so it's not tapping into the pacific moisture that 2004 certainly had. The coastal low is really what's providing the moisture, but some models want to push that away from the coast faster as the much colder/drier air filters in from the north so while we have some similarities, this won't be 2004 for many and certainly not 1895. Not even close unfortunately. Btw...the 2004 event was a "surprise" not because of lack of moisture but the low kept trending further south and so models were playing catchup every run. San Antonio was favored to have 7-8 inches and 36 hours later we ended up with a dusting. So it was more the track than lack of moisture further south.

Doesn't mean it won't snow across areas that are under warnings but I think the blends are probably more 2-5 across your region with 1-2 further west toward Austin/SA region.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6546 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:39 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:txtwister78 thGs probably true that its overdoing amounts, that being said, we didnt think some areas would see over a foot back in 2004 from that snow event even though that was southwest of houston, it probably is unlikely , that being said what it could be picking up on is a much faster transition to all snow, if that transition occurs faster, i wouldnt be surprised to see some really heavy amounts even exceeding 7-8 inches


Yeah 2004 was a different setup. Different players on the field (weather map wise) and so it's important to recognize the similarities and differences as you watch these models put totals out. In 2004 we had a pretty big upper level low that dropped south way into Mexico similar to last week (but further south) with a coastal low developing in tandem, so moisture was not an issue then. Cold air at all levels is in place no question so we have that but the system coming out of the west is an open wave and pretty flat so it's not tapping into the pacific moisture that 2004 certainly had. The coastal low is really what's providing the moisture, but some models want to push that away from the coast faster as the much colder/drier air filters in from the north so while we have some similarities, this won't be 2004 for many and certainly not 1895. Not even close unfortunately. Btw...the 2004 event was a "surprise" not because of lack of moisture but the low kept trending further south and so models were playing catchup every run. San Antonio was favored to have 7-8 inches and 36 hours later we ended up with a dusting. So it was more the track than lack of moisture.

Doesn't mean it won't snow across areas that are under warnings but I think the blends are probably more 2-5 across your region with 1-2 further west toward Austin/SA region.


Yeah, I think Austin NWS is only calling for a couple inches.

That’s plenty for me! I’d be more than happy with two inches.
4 likes   

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6547 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:43 pm

iorange55 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:txtwister78 thGs probably true that its overdoing amounts, that being said, we didnt think some areas would see over a foot back in 2004 from that snow event even though that was southwest of houston, it probably is unlikely , that being said what it could be picking up on is a much faster transition to all snow, if that transition occurs faster, i wouldnt be surprised to see some really heavy amounts even exceeding 7-8 inches


Yeah 2004 was a different setup. Different players on the field (weather map wise) and so it's important to recognize the similarities and differences as you watch these models put totals out. In 2004 we had a pretty big upper level low that dropped south way into Mexico similar to last week (but further south) with a coastal low developing in tandem, so moisture was not an issue then. Cold air at all levels is in place no question so we have that but the system coming out of the west is an open wave and pretty flat so it's not tapping into the pacific moisture that 2004 certainly had. The coastal low is really what's providing the moisture, but some models want to push that away from the coast faster as the much colder/drier air filters in from the north so while we have some similarities, this won't be 2004 for many and certainly not 1895. Not even close unfortunately. Btw...the 2004 event was a "surprise" not because of lack of moisture but the low kept trending further south and so models were playing catchup every run. San Antonio was favored to have 7-8 inches and 36 hours later we ended up with a dusting. So it was more the track than lack of moisture.

Doesn't mean it won't snow across areas that are under warnings but I think the blends are probably more 2-5 across your region with 1-2 further west toward Austin/SA region.


Yeah, I think Austin NWS is only calling for a couple inches.

That’s plenty for me! I’d be more than happy with two inches.


Yeah still a rare event for Houston metro especially so definitely significant in that it's tough to get snow into that region period let alone 3-5 inches potentially
0 likes   

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6548 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:52 pm

Just to give everyone an idea of the trends here. 0z GFS last night to 18z GFS today. Slow trend south...snowing in the gulf.

Image

Image
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1211
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6549 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:55 pm



Based on these trends areas south of I-10 might see more snow interesting. People have been saying all week that areas north of I-10 will be the big winners but moisture might be a bit of an issue the further north you are I guess.
2 likes   

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6550 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:58 pm

IcyTundra wrote:


Based on these trends areas south of I-10 might see more snow interesting. People have been saying all week that areas north of I-10 will be the big winners but moisture might be a bit of an issue the further north you are I guess.


It's a little surprising because when you see that much moisture just offshore in the gulf, you tend to think models will trend north a bit as you move closer to go time, but it appears this cold air punch has some muscle behind it and is winning out and suppressing things further south. For example the WPC graphic a day or two ago for the SE (heavy snow threat) is going to need some serious edits.
1 likes   

TomballEd
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 803
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6551 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:04 pm

Because there is little experience with winter weather this far S to compare Reggie to other models, and the Canadian Regional grid extends only to N Mexico, I don't trust RGEM w/o other high res support.
1 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6552 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:05 pm

TomballEd wrote:Because there is little experience with winter weather this far S to compare Reggie to other models, and the Canadian Regional grid extends only to N Mexico, I don't trust RGEM w/o other high res support.

I didn't blame you on that. It scores some and is a big outlier some.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3192
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6553 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:14 pm

The Philly snow is looking pretty.
4 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6554 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:15 pm

TomballEd wrote:Because there is little experience with winter weather this far S to compare Reggie to other models, and the Canadian Regional grid extends only to N Mexico, I don't trust RGEM w/o other high res support.


I’m with you but you also have a rooting interest, and I hope y’all get what you want.
1 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6555 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:22 pm

From Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control for Southeast Texas:

Winter Storm Warning for the entire region from 600pm Monday to 600pm Tuesday.

Potentially historic snowstorm for SE TX late Monday into Tuesday followed by dangerous cold into Wednesday morning.

Travel will be impossible across the area from late Monday into Wednesday…motorist that attempt to travel may become stranded for an extended period of time.


Global and high resolution guidance continues to indicate the arrival of a strong storm system across the area late Monday into Tuesday behind a push of colder air tonight. Overall trends today have been to limit freezing rain and sleet in favor for more snow and higher snowfall accumulations and pushing the greater amounts of snow further south over our region to include much of the metro area and down to the coast. Precipitation will onset Monday evening between 6-9pm becoming widespread and heavier into Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to show instability for meso scale banding of snow across the area on Tuesday morning with snowfall rates of .50 to 1.0 inch per hour in this heavier bands. Significantly reduced visibility and rapid accumulation will occur under these bands.

Accumulations:

Widespread snowfall of 2-4 inches is expected over much of the area with 1-3 inches across the coastal counties and beach areas. Locally higher amounts of upwards of 6-8 inches will be possible under any banding features. A reasonable worst case scenario (10% chance of happening) is snowfall totals of 8-10 inches across much of the area. Graphics below display this.

Still looking for “very” cold conditions Wednesday morning with nearly the entire area falling into the mid to upper 10’s. This will be extremely dangerous temperatures with damage to even protected infrastructure possible.
4 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6556 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:30 pm

gpsnowman wrote:The Philly snow is looking pretty.


Yeah it’s been a fun game to watch. Snow getting heavier too!

Meanwhile I’m mentally preparing myself for a nothing-burger here in Round Rock. The model trends today from the short range meso models are concerning. :(

Maybe we’ll end up with our old faithful … freezing drizzle. LOL.
2 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

downsouthman1
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:14 pm
Location: Rowlett, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6557 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:The Philly snow is looking pretty.


Yeah it’s been a fun game to watch. Snow getting heavier too!

Meanwhile I’m mentally preparing myself for a nothing-burger here in Round Rock. The model trends today from the short range meso models are concerning. :(

Maybe we’ll end up with our old faithful … freezing drizzle. LOL.
i remember living in the Austin metro area and yup, you could always count on freezing drizzle.
3 likes   
Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.

Stratton23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2591
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
Location: Katy, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6558 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:43 pm

to give an idea of just truely how crazy this could be for se texas and the gulf coast states, panama city beach, florida is under a winter storm watch, now that is something you rarely ever see
1 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1092
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6559 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:46 pm

TomballEd wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.


Yes, I am graduating on May 15 with a BS in professional meteorology and minor in math. That is cool! I actually passed through Laurel when we went to New Orleans for the AMS conference.

I use imgur for all my images I post.


Have any job offers? I used imgur and got a broken picture when I did i}mg} ingur {/img} Staright brackets used.


Not yet. I need to start searching more, but I also have to keep up with assignments right now too.
1 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6560 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:48 pm

Porta, Trust in the Crazy Canadian Kuchera totals, we will! :cheesy:

quote="Portastorm"]
gpsnowman wrote:The Philly snow is looking pretty.


Yeah it’s been a fun game to watch. Snow getting heavier too!

Meanwhile I’m mentally preparing myself for a nothing-burger here in Round Rock. The model trends today from the short range meso models are concerning. :(

Maybe we’ll end up with our old faithful … freezing drizzle. LOL.[/quote]
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 66 guests