Stratton23 wrote:txtwister78 thGs probably true that its overdoing amounts, that being said, we didnt think some areas would see over a foot back in 2004 from that snow event even though that was southwest of houston, it probably is unlikely , that being said what it could be picking up on is a much faster transition to all snow, if that transition occurs faster, i wouldnt be surprised to see some really heavy amounts even exceeding 7-8 inches
Yeah 2004 was a different setup. Different players on the field (weather map wise) and so it's important to recognize the similarities and differences as you watch these models put totals out. In 2004 we had a pretty big upper level low that dropped south way into Mexico similar to last week (but further south) with a coastal low developing in tandem, so moisture was not an issue then. Cold air at all levels is in place no question so we have that but the system coming out of the west is an open wave and pretty flat so it's not tapping into the pacific moisture that 2004 certainly had. The coastal low is really what's providing the moisture, but some models want to push that away from the coast faster as the much colder/drier air filters in from the north so while we have some similarities, this won't be 2004 for many and certainly not 1895. Not even close unfortunately. Btw...the 2004 event was a "surprise" not because of lack of moisture but the low kept trending further south and so models were playing catchup every run. San Antonio was favored to have 7-8 inches and 36 hours later we ended up with a dusting. So it was more the track than lack of moisture further south.
Doesn't mean it won't snow across areas that are under warnings but I think the blends are probably more 2-5 across your region with 1-2 further west toward Austin/SA region.