Texas Winter 2024-2025

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Lagreeneyes03 unfortunately yes

Don’t speak in absolutes. It’s a bad look.

And no, we will have more seasonal to cool air before it wraps up.

[Gotwood]

Seems my pilot is unable to evacuate me to Australia, so I'm stuck in SW Houston for this historic snow storm. I do like snow, but I'm dreading having to turn the water to the house off by Tuesday afternoon to prevent freezing pipes in the attic. Hopefully, I can turn it back on for a bit Wednesday afternoon.

I've been reading the AFDs, one written by my former teammate Cameron Self. He talks about a warm nose, but I'm not seeing it. I plotted HRRR soundings from 18Z for Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans, and even Galveston and I see no warm nose during the precipitation. Looks like a snow event for us in Houston. We have all the supplies we need. I even filled four 5-gal cans with gas for the generator, just in case, but I don't expect snow to cause power issues. This is nothing like 2021. Heck, temperatures north of Houston will be warmer than us (less cold) Tue/Wed. It'll be extremely busy at work tomorrow. I can't take any time off this week, I even have to fill in for the day shift Wednesday as a teammate is on vacation. Hopefully, I can take Friday off.

Enjoy my friend! For years we have wished this snow and cold upon you to cool your heated heart and it's finally happening! One question, the heck you do with the thermostat for February? It looks torchy...guess it comes with a price.

So are we done with Winter after this, then?

Following the trends I would assume so.

[Ntxw]

Seems my pilot is unable to evacuate me to Australia, so I'm stuck in SW Houston for this historic snow storm. I do like snow, but I'm dreading having to turn the water to the house off by Tuesday afternoon to prevent freezing pipes in the attic. Hopefully, I can turn it back on for a bit Wednesday afternoon.

I've been reading the AFDs, one written by my former teammate Cameron Self. He talks about a warm nose, but I'm not seeing it. I plotted HRRR soundings from 18Z for Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans, and even Galveston and I see no warm nose during the precipitation. Looks like a snow event for us in Houston. We have all the supplies we need. I even filled four 5-gal cans with gas for the generator, just in case, but I don't expect snow to cause power issues. This is nothing like 2021. Heck, temperatures north of Houston will be warmer than us (less cold) Tue/Wed. It'll be extremely busy at work tomorrow. I can't take any time off this week, I even have to fill in for the day shift Wednesday as a teammate is on vacation. Hopefully, I can take Friday off.

Enjoy my friend! For years we have wished this snow and cold upon you to cool your heated heart and it's finally happening! One question, the heck you do with the thermostat for February? It looks torchy...guess it comes with a price.

So are we done with Winter after this, then?

One more cold snap the closing days of January then the ++AO takes over along with unfavorable MJO. Likely Alaska and WCAN gets cold and the Southeast US will warm much above normal. We will feel that warmth as it expands, above normal maybe week 2 of Feb. Beyond (mid Feb) that will depend on other factors if that WCan cold is able to move south.

[Steve]

Live briefing now NWS Lake Charles is comparing this storm to the 1960's storm for the area they cover.

63? If so I wasn’t quite born yet but that’s #2 all time snowfall in New Orleans to 1895. This event should rival it for them in the Crescent City.

[Stratton23]

The one caviet to a warmer february on the euro weeklies, is that it has the WPO staying negative the entire month of february, that could throw a bit of a wrench into a warmer forecast for february, also has the EPO kind of just staying near neutral the entire month and not big positive or negative, some conflicting signals to say the least

[Steve]

Enjoy my friend! For years we have wished this snow and cold upon you to cool your heated heart and it's finally happening! One question, the heck you do with the thermostat for February? It looks torchy...guess it comes with a price.

So are we done with Winter after this, then?

One more cold snap the closing days of January then the ++AO takes over along with unfavorable MJO. Likely Alaska and WCAN gets cold and the Southeast US will warm much above normal. We will feel that warmth as it expands, above normal maybe week 2 of Feb. Beyond (mid Feb) that will depend on other factors if that WCan cold is able to move south.

Right. Pattern has to reverse and go the other way. It always does. We had some successive mostly mild winters but reasonable shot it’s still gonna get chilly a couple more times before it’s all done. Maybe not like what we are about to see, but the warm will also reverse as it always does.

[TexasBreeze]

There is some gloom and doom on the wxinfinity forum for some models trending drier (nam/ukmet and gfs somewhat). How reliable is this negative trend? Other models look great though.

[Stratton23]

TexasBreeze personally their maybe a south trend, but definitely no reason to be worried about it, these events always surprise folks, the hrrr is probably one of the most important mesocale models to watch right now

[Ntxw]

NAM qpf is usually good inside 24 hours, I'd watch that down south as that will be telling...which is everything right now in terms of how much. It should be running pretty soon.

[sphelps8681]

My area in Lumberton, Tx will be below freezing for 40+ hours from Tuesday morning to Thursday Morning. Ugh.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im excited for my SE Tx family! Going to be awesome. Keep us updated!

I had 6" the other night. Another 3" coming again tonight. I hit -11 last night. Prolly hit -8 tonight. Fun times! Everyone please stay safe.

[txtwister78]

HRRR doesn't look good at all. That would have me skeptical if I was in a forecast office. Not a lot of snow (keeps getting trimmed from the north or moisture further inland). Keeps most of this event freezing rain/drizzle and sleet along the coast.

[txwxwatcher]

Travis Herzog of ABC 13 on his Facebook page a little less than an hour ago:

“Our base case is now 3-6" of snow for Houston. Do you wanna build a snowman? ⛄”

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Not sure if it’s been posted yet, but IAH and HOU will be closed on starting midnight on Tuesday. Will likely reopen on Wednesday.

No word on SAT or AUS.

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

the hrrr can go take a hike

[txtwister78]

the hrrr can go take a hike

Problem is it's one of the better models in the short range and it keeps trending south. Anymore and that snow is going off the coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

TexasBreeze personally their maybe a south trend, but definitely no reason to be worried about it, these events always surprise folks, the hrrr is probably one of the most important mesocale models to watch right now

the hrrr can go take a hike

Yehh…

[txtwister78]

The low in the gulf keeps getting suppressed further south due to the colder/drier air surging in from the north. Snowing out in the gulf. Talk about rare. 0z run compared to 18z run HRRR.

[txtwister78]

Portions of Florida may be for a big surprise if this keeps up. Funny in that before this arctic outbreak began some the social media mets were talking about Florida being the one area to "escape the cold". Not anymore.