Texas Winter 2025-2026

[CaptinCrunch]

wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on christmas if it didnt mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside

After years of persistent holiday December warm modes down here, I'll be doing a trip to Minneapolis next week to visit some family! Get the snow and cold fix in early . Beautiful forecast up there. It will likely get worse here as the years go by probably.

Texas just experienced another top warm November, and October was not far behind.

I hear you on that LOL

I'll be headed to Chicago in February for 3 days of company training and networking. I don't even need to see the forecast, It's cold as balls and snowy in Chicago during February

[gpsnowman]

wxman57 good ole GFS lol, I just despise the warmth because of those mosquitoes, i wouldn’t mind 70 on christmas if it didnt mean the return of those evil little buggers lol, because they seem to especially love me whenever im outside

After years of persistent holiday December warm modes down here, I'll be doing a trip to Minneapolis next week to visit some family! Get the snow and cold fix in early . Beautiful forecast up there. It will likely get worse here as the years go by probably.

Texas just experienced another top warm November, and October was not far behind.

I hear you on that LOL

I'll be headed to Chicago in February for 3 days of company training and networking. I don't even need to see the forecast, It's cold as balls and snowy in Chicago during February

I have a trip to Mexico City in late January. Weather there is cool to warm at that time but always agreeable. I hope I don't miss a snowstorm while I'm away.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is colder than the GFS for Christmas - lows in the mid-40s for Houston vs. lower 70s for the GFS.

[cstrunk]

As much as I'd like to see snow and (occasional) cold in Texas, I'm perfectly fine with 60s/70s. That's like perfect weather. Can enjoy being outdoors and then there's a chill at night where you can sit around and enjoy a nice bonfire.

I'm also selfishly happy to see warm temperatures towards the end of the month (only this year) since I have family traveling in for the holidays, so hopefully we have nice weather.

[Cpv17]

As much as I'd like to see snow and (occasional) cold in Texas, I'm perfectly fine with 60s/70s. That's like perfect weather. Can enjoy being outdoors and then there's a chill at night where you can sit around and enjoy a nice bonfire.

I'm also selfishly happy to see warm temperatures towards the end of the month (only this year) since I have family traveling in for the holidays, so hopefully we have nice weather.

I’m 100% with you on this. Also, throw in an inch or two of rain every couple weeks and I’d have no complaints.

[Stratton23]

Still a lot of fighting going on in the pacific, ive been noticing todays operational runs have been trying to pull back the ridge over Alaska in the 8-9 day range, could be 70’s for christmas, but if that ridge just happens to re establish itself in Alaska, it could be a whole other ball game, rooting for the later, chrismas and warm temperatures do not go together at all

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Still a lot of fighting going on in the pacific, ive been noticing todays operational runs have been trying to pull back the ridge over Alaska in the 8-9 day range, could be 70’s for christmas, but if that ridge just happens to re establish itself in Alaska, it could be a whole other ball game, rooting for the later, chrismas and warm temperatures do not go together at all

When you see the gefs and eps start showing the epo trend negative, i believe we can start getting more excited, but not until then!

[starsfan65]

Still a lot of fighting going on in the pacific, ive been noticing todays operational runs have been trying to pull back the ridge over Alaska in the 8-9 day range, could be 70’s for christmas, but if that ridge just happens to re establish itself in Alaska, it could be a whole other ball game, rooting for the later, chrismas and warm temperatures do not go together at all

I want cold weather on Christmas.

[Brent]

The 18z GFS is at least closer to normal for Christmas up here but it's so far out. Too far out to worry about

I would be prepared for a warm Christmas though. Maybe you'll be surprised instead of disappointed again. I mean you gotta remember where we live. There's been a lot of warm Christmases this century

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt be surprised, we have had so many 80 degree christmases down here over the last 10+ years, doesnt surprise me, but doesnt make me any less disgusted each time, I still am holding on to some hope that models are over doing the warth again, we will see

[starsfan65]

I wouldnt be surprised, we have had so many 80 degree christmases down here over the last 10+ years, doesnt surprise me, but doesnt make me any less disgusted each time, I still am holding on to some hope that models are over doing the warth again, we will see

It will be disgusting to reach 80 on Christmas.

[Stratton23]

Seeing some positive trends in the overnight AIFS ensembles and EPS, definitely not cold yet, but a couple of good trends im noticing tonight at least at the 500 mb height pattern level, in regards to christmas week

[TomballEd]

If there isn't winter precip cold weather is just unpleasant. Give me 80*F and sunny on Christmas over 45*F and cloudy.

[Brent]

Seeing 70s on TV forecasts here the weekend before Christmas is quite wow

For the record yesterday's 61 is the warmest we've been all month and we had fropa overnight with Thursday being the only 60+ in the next week.

No it's not record setting and it's happened many times but the fact we're on track for a cold December and it might just get completely trashed lol

[wxman22]

Cool front just went through here. Winds are gusting up to 40 mph out of the north. One thing I’ve noticed since I moved here. Is that one of the things that makes this area chilly is the almost constant flow of weak fronts rolling off of the Rockies in between the stronger cold fronts.Even when the pattern is warm these fronts usually will make it into the northwestern 1/3 of the state.

[Brent]

The GFS was back to an Arctic front crashing through on Christmas Day btw if only

Reminder it's still 2 weeks out so I'm sure we'll have 400 different solutions by then

[wxman57]

The GFS was back to an Arctic front crashing through on Christmas Day btw if only

Reminder it's still 2 weeks out so I'm sure we'll have 400 different solutions by then

Yes, the GFS is the most inconsistent model. 00Z says warm for Christmas with no front. 06Z says strong Canadian front on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, European model remains consistent with mild temps and no strong front. The zonal flow pattern is not supportive of the 6Z GFS solution.

[Brent]

The GFS was back to an Arctic front crashing through on Christmas Day btw if only

Reminder it's still 2 weeks out so I'm sure we'll have 400 different solutions by then

Yes, the GFS is the most inconsistent model. 00Z says warm for Christmas with no front. 06Z says strong Canadian front on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, European model remains consistent with mild temps and no strong front. The zonal flow pattern is not supportive of the 6Z GFS solution.

Just for the record the 12z Euro yesterday had snow in Joplin on the 23rd the most recent run has average temps(50s) here in Christmas Eve

I mean yes I'm expecting a warmer Christmas but it is day 15. A lot can change by then

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A series of cold fronts will push through the Southern Plains
later this week and into the weekend. The first front (weaker)
will arrive early Friday, with little to no rain chances and
negligible temperature changes. The second, stronger frontal
passage is expected to arrive late Saturday-early Sunday knocking
high temperatures Sunday into early next week back into the upper
40s to mid 50s. Low rain chances are in the forecast across East
Texas in the deeper PWAT airmass during this timeframe. More
widespread precipitation may return to the region in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe of next week as deterministic and ensemble
guidance highlights increasing moisture return ahead of our next
Southern Plains shortwave trough.

[wxman57]

I'm liking the 12Z EC - highs in the mid to upper 70s across Texas Christmas Eve. GFS gave up on the big Canadian front. Every single GFS run is completely different. Bottom line is I don't see any major cold or ice across Texas through Christmas, and likely through December.