Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #661 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:00 pm

If we go for 5 more years without seeing it get really cold, I will buy off on the global warming stuff. I am still pretty confident it is only a cycle. Even an expert I know at NOAA thinks we are on the edge of a shift to our cold climate phase. Keep in mind...when it shifted into the cold phase in 1946 it was swift and dramatic. Two of our most amazingly warm winters to this day were 1939 - 40, and 1940 - 41. Those two were WARM! It is too soon to give up now, but like I say 5 years from now, I would be worried.

R-Dub · #662 Postby **R-Dub** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:00 pm

This is a great site that shows monthly averages for seattle that goes way back. As you can see, there have been very mild winters way back along with very cold winters, its always been kind of a mixed bag here.

http://fyp.ngdc.noaa.gov/idb/servlet/Sh ... elect+Data

Don't forget these temps are in celcius!

Also look at Feb temps, many Febs were colder then Januarys

W13 · #663 Postby **W13** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:36 pm

http://blogs.msdn.com/oldnewthing/archi ... 49895.aspx

Read that, it is a post making fun of Seattle drivers and new people. Quite funny actually. :lol:

andycottle · #664 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:00 am

Hey have a question for you all. Do you think there might some histrical climate data on the net, for here in Woodinville? Say...dating back to oohhh 1900`s or 1950`s up through 2002, 2003..?

-- Andy

R-Dub · #665 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:01 am

Thats funny Justin, very true!! You can tell many people here are transplants (no offense TT :lol:

) but if people freak out when driving in the rain, you know they are from cali or somewhere were the roads are dry 95% of the time. (not to mention the fact that every week there is land being cleared in my area, and spec houses put up) I think it should be a law to take a two month driving course that requires driving on a closed track that is watered down, if you want a licence in WA. Think of all the traffic problems that would be solved if people just knew how to put down there cell phone, and latte, and learned how to drive on something other then dry pavement!!

Can you tell I am a little agitated by all the people moving here, north snohomish Co is looking more and more like Lynnwood all the time :grr:

It seriously takes over a half hr to drive through Smokey point.......SMOKEY POINT!!!! 15 yrs ago Smokey Point consited of a store, tavern, and a fruit stand.

Okay I am done ranting now

Also regarding the news, the last time they had a real reason to freak out, it was DEC 1996, No winter storm since has come close to the devistation that happened that yr. They had good reason to have a lot of coverage then.

AnthonyC · #666 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:12 am

It's true...some local media stations went overboard with this latest "arctic blast with winter". Q13 news was ridiculous. The arctic cold/snow was their top story for almost two weeks. They were airing the same story almost every night, just different locations. Kiro 7 was pretty bad too. And Andy Wappler was an idiot throughout this entire event...he kept getting my hopes up the night before calling for 2-4 inches of snow, and then nothing would happen. King 5 had a solid foundation through the entire event...actually, Jeff Reiner did an awesome job. From the beginning, he stated this wasn't going to be a major snow event for the lowlands. He would call for maybe an inch, while other stations were saying 3-6 inches. All in all, this latest event was a big disappointment. It seemed nothing fell into place.

Anthony

andycottle · #667 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:14 am

Viewing tonights 00z GFS...looks like the weekend is Still appearing pretty wet...with sunday being the wettest of the days. Saturday looks to feature some showers, but maybe a few dry periods inbetween the rain. How ever come sunday, that day is looking REALLY wet with 24hr & 36hr precip totals ending 06z sunday evening being in the 1.25 to 1.50" for the Wa. Coast and North Sound/interior areas and possibly as much as 1.75 to maybe 2.00" for far southern portions of Vancouver Island...such as around Victoria area. And for Central and South sound areas...precip totals are showing .50 to .75" worth of rain. So will proably see more flooding again. -- Andy

andrewr · #668 Postby **andrewr** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:31 am

The NWS discussion mentions tonight that:

BEYOND MON...A STRONG JET OVER THE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A
SERIES OF FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.

What sort of "relatively mild" temperatures are we looking at here? Upper 40's?

snow_wizzard · #669 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:07 am

Andy...There are records for Bothell for 1948 - 1960 (or thereabouts). You can find them at the Seattle Public library or online. It would cost you about $50.00 to dowload the daily records from the net. At the Seattle Library they are in the Washington State climatic summary books. A couple of eye popping highlights in the Bothell records are the -10F reading in Jan 1950, a low of 35 on July 4, 1949, and an amazing low of 20 at the end of April in 1951. Not exactly good garden weather!

As for early next week, I am a bit surprised that the NWS is not playing up the fact that much cooler air will be coming in by Monday. The snow levels could fall to about 2500 feet. I would say highs dropping into the mid 40s or so in lowlands.

On the long range, I do want to introduce the possibility that the Pacific ridge may retrogress in two steps instead of one. The latest 0z shows the current ridge will break down, and then then rebuild at about 135W in the 10 - 15 day period. That would be too close to get us really cold, but it would still spell below normal temps. It is also possible the ridge will rebuild at more like 145W which would be far enough west to give us cold and snow. If the current 0z run is correct, and the ridge rebuilds at 135, I would expect it to retrogress again by mid Feb to about 150W...the ultimate position. Either way we get cold, but how soon is the question. It is interesting to note that our last cold snap was a two part retrogression, so it may well do that again.

~Brennan~ · #670 Postby **~Brennan~** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:31 am

Hey all it's me Brennan again. Finally I have been able to get onto this thing. I registered last week but the activation link never got sent to my e-mail and I could not cancel my account. Thanks to Snowwizzard I was able to use one of his e-mail accounts... It's quite late, 11:28 so I won't post tonight. I look forward to talking to you all soon. It has been a long time since the Alamanac forum was shut down. I hope it re-opens sometime soon as well. There is something about the format of that forum that I like... It is very simple... Well whatever, talk to everyone tomorrow. :-)

andycottle · #671 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:46 am

Snow-wizzard,

Is there anywhere where on the net where I get weather data/records for my area or Bothell, with out having to pay a fee? -- Andy

TT-SEA · #672 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 9:17 am

O.K... the 06Z run of the GFS continues the zonal theme with a few ridges in between. No gigantic western ridge like in the 00z run.

Definitely no hope for lowland snow in that run!!

I am doubting more and more every day. If we want to get a real arctic blast it will have to happen in the first half of February... and that is becoming very unlikely.

The PNA monitor now shows a slight dip negative and then back to positive!!

W13 · #673 Postby **W13** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 9:24 am

~Brennan~ wrote:Hey all it's me Brennan again. Finally I have been able to get onto this thing. I registered last week but the activation link never got sent to my e-mail and I could not cancel my account. Thanks to Snowwizzard I was able to use one of his e-mail accounts... It's quite late, 11:28 so I won't post tonight. I look forward to talking to you all soon. It has been a long time since the Alamanac forum was shut down. I hope it re-opens sometime soon as well. There is something about the format of that forum that I like... It is very simple... Well whatever, talk to everyone tomorrow.

Welcome back Brennan! 8-)

R-Dub · #674 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 9:51 am

Great to see you Brennan! 8-)

The PNA expert is back

here are my current conditions........

1/21/05 LK Goodwin WA
Cloudy
6:50:18 AM CURRENT
Temperature (ºF) 50.7
Humidity (%) 99.1
Wind (mph) E 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.07
Dew Point: 50.4 ºF

Brian_from_bellingham · #675 Postby **Brian_from_bellingham** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:18 am

The PNA forecast is not as negative as I would like it to be, but both the Ensembles and the MRF forecast show it to be between -1 and -2 by late January, and then start to go back up, but not positive as of early February, but maybe heading that way after that. The AO forecast is for it to be slightly negative, but nothing dramatic.

Welcome Brennan, good to see you here. I hope you enjoyed the snow we had for 10 days.

cloud9 · #676 Postby **cloud9** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:09 pm

Happy to see the gangs all here :jump:

Brian_from_bellingham · #677 Postby **Brian_from_bellingham** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:49 pm

SnowWizzard, this scientist that you know from NOAA, I bet he cant say anything public, since it seems like they have to go with the "global warming" line or be ostracized. Maybe they are right, and like you, if it continues to be warm over the next 5 years, I might start to really believe in it.

Anyway, what is his reasoning that we will get cooler? Is it just our time in the natural cycle of things, or does he see something specific?

TT-SEA · #678 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:49 pm

Quiet day on this thread.

Maybe that is because its SO beautiful outside.

63.4 degrees at my house right now with partly sunny skies. Another nice day for May... and REALLY nice for January!! Looks like tomorrow could be equally as nice.

The rain on Sunday looks pretty light overall... nothing like earlier in the week.

And the models are still not showing ANY chance of lowland snow for the forseeable future.

Every day my doubts over winter returning grow... and I become more confident about a normal February with the snow level around 2500 feet and occasional lowland RAIN.

AnthonyC · #679 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:52 pm

Viewing the latest long-range GFS models, arctic air isn't looking good. By February 2nd, an amplified ridge is positioned at the 130W line...not conduscive for arctic air to filter through Western Washington. Under this situation, near normal temperatures would prevail. Like Snow_Wizzard said, if that amplified ridge retrograded to 145-150W, it would be another story. But until I see some consistency with the GFS models, I know nothing's set in stone. A good zonal flow develops in the middle of next week, bringing snow levels down to 2500 feet with abundant mountain snow. Seattle may stay mostly dry during this zonal flow because of the Olympic rainshadow and a westerly flow...which is great orographic lift for the mountains. There's a small trough over the Pacific Northwest at the end of January, but it's nothing to write home about. Hopefully tomorrow's long-range models indicate something different...maybe the amplified ridge at 150W?! lol. Oh yeah...WELCOME BRENNAN!!

Anthony

Currently 61 F!!! A nice day!!!

R-Dub · #680 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:10 pm

Today with the sun out, and a light breeze, not to mention 60 degrees, definatily felt like late spring!!! Even had that spring smell in the air! Thinking about putting my small fishing boat in the water and throwing a line in!! 8-)

1/21/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:07:36 PM CURRENT
Partly Sunny
Temperature (ºF) 60.0
Humidity (%) 80.3
Wind (mph) E 2.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.02
Dew Point: 54.0 ºF

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