Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TexasF6]

Any chances for the moisture and a possible shortwave out of the SW from that Pacific plume and moisture riding out of Mexico producing drizzle for the Austin area tonight?

[Hurricane_Apu]

Changed over to all snow in Lafayette the past half hour and starting to accumulate quickly.
Stunning dendrites, perfect six-pointed stars. I've only ever seen that twice up north... never expected to see it here.

[HurricaneA]

Getting a mix of sleet and a bunch of big flakes here in Alvin. Schools have also been canceled for tomorrow. Best birthday ever

[Rgv20]

Got off work to find my truck coated in ice, we are getting freezing drizzle with a temperature of 30

[EnnisTx]

Well, that 384 hour fantasyland storm is gone.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Got off work to find my truck coated in ice, we are getting freezing drizzle with a temperature of 30

Love it!

[Hurricane_Apu]

Under a convective band and back to heavy sleet... borderline hail... some of the pellets (stones?) are almost pea-sized.

[downsouthman1]

Any chances for the moisture and a possible shortwave out of the SW from that Pacific plume and moisture riding out of Mexico producing drizzle for the Austin area tonight?

Dewpoints too low. The shortwave is spent.

[winterweatherho]

I think that’s been the main disappointment here in North Texas. There have been a few snow showers, but no fat flakes. Last night, I could only truly see the snow if I stepped outside. Those little flakes aren’t the same.

Same here in Cedar Hill.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, that 384 hour fantasyland storm is gone.

If you're talking about the one from the 0z GFS, it was only around for 1 run to begin with. Watch the 500mb pattern. As long as we are talking about systems in the next 2 weeks, the system to watch is the one that comes ashore the west coast at hour 210. That storm has shown up in some form for the last 5 runs of the GFS.

The GFS and Euro Ensembles also show general troughiness in the west with general ridging in the east, which is a good pattern for stronger storm systems. Cold will be the question at that point, but a bowling ball ULL at this time of year with the proper trajectory wouldnt surprise me as a winter weather setup.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ideal cooling tonight. 13 (2010 and 2011) is the coldest since the singles in 1996. The only way single digits may happen in the core is if winds calm completely and no clouds. HP will be overhead for max radiational cooling

Down to 17 here at 7pm wow. I think we break our 29 year streak of no single digits around here. Though still a long way to fall for the I30 corridor to see its first sub zero since 1989, they have had single digits a couple times in the past 10 or 15 years.

[vbhoutex]

Any chances for the moisture and a possible shortwave out of the SW from that Pacific plume and moisture riding out of Mexico producing drizzle for the Austin area tonight?

Dewpoints too low. The shortwave is spent.

Just answered my question concerning Weds. into Thurs.(I think) for SE TX. Thought I saw a possible shortwave lurking in the flow over NM/El Paso direction, but gotta have the dewpoints to get the lift and moisture to work. We won't get above freezing, if we do, till at least noon tomorrow. Been below freezing since 5:30 this am with Winter precip of all sorts in the Houston Metro. Since most people are staying off the roads now we will have almost our entire freeway system shutdown due to ice on all the overpasses in the morning and that will do a flash freeze Thurs. morning also, even on surface streets unless we have a major dry out tomorrow afternoon.

[Ntxw]

GFS and NAM MOS both have DFW down to 11F. That would be coldest since 1996 if verified. We'll have a pretty good clue by midnight. If we are down to teens by then, it has a chance.

[gpsnowman]

Ideal cooling tonight. 13 (2010 and 2011) is the coldest since the singles in 1996. The only way single digits may happen in the core is if winds calm completely and no clouds. HP will be overhead for max radiational cooling

Down to 17 here at 7pm wow. I think we break our 29 year streak of no single digits around here. Though still a long way to fall for the I30 corridor to see its first sub zero since 1989, they have had single digits a couple times in the past 10 or 15 years.

Excellent point Ralph's Weather. Only at DFW has the temp not fallen below 10 since Feb 96. I am sure over the last 22 years areas around DFW including east Texas have fallen into the single digits with all the arctic intrusions all that time. Heck I remember Super Bowl week several rural locations dropped below 10 while the Metro stayed above. It would definitely be cool if the Metroplex got below 10 overnight. Damn heat island.

[Yukon Cornelius]

If we aren’t going to get snow or any type of frozen precip, I might as well get excited about extreme low temps. It’s already 15 with clear skies fairly calm winds. If we don’t hit single digits again tonight, I’ll be extremely surprised.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS and NAM MOS both have DFW down to 11F. That would be coldest since 1996 if verified. We'll have a pretty good clue by midnight. If we are down to teens by then, it has a chance.

Along I-20 in E Tx down to the 14 to 20 range.

[Ntxw]

Ideal cooling tonight. 13 (2010 and 2011) is the coldest since the singles in 1996. The only way single digits may happen in the core is if winds calm completely and no clouds. HP will be overhead for max radiational cooling

Down to 17 here at 7pm wow. I think we break our 29 year streak of no single digits around here. Though still a long way to fall for the I30 corridor to see its first sub zero since 1989, they have had single digits a couple times in the past 10 or 15 years.

Excellent point Ralph's Weather. Only at DFW has the temp not fallen below 10 since Feb 96. I am sure over the last 22 years areas around DFW including east Texas have fallen into the single digits with all the arctic intrusions all that time. Heck I remember Super Bowl week several rural locations dropped below 10 while the Metro stayed above. It would definitely be cool if the Metroplex got below 10 overnight. Damn heat island.

It's not just the heat island, the official thermometer/reading is also not as "loose" with it's readings and is calibrated, finalized at NCEI (NCDC) vs say your run of the mill thermometer at Bob's High School. It fell below 10F even in places within the urban core back in 2011.

[Rgv20]

Was outside about 5 minutes ago but its all Freezing Drizzle....no sleet/flurries

[Ralph's Weather]

Excellent point Ralph's Weather. Only at DFW has the temp not fallen below 10 since Feb 96. I am sure over the last 22 years areas around DFW including east Texas have fallen into the single digits with all the arctic intrusions all that time. Heck I remember Super Bowl week several rural locations dropped below 10 while the Metro stayed above. It would definitely be cool if the Metroplex got below 10 overnight. Damn heat island.

If DFW had gotten snow last night chances would be much higher there. Still possible but 12 or so more likely. HRRR has me down to 5 tonight, DFW at 15 and just west of Texarkana below 0. I can justify that prediction based on snow cover and ideal conditions otherwise also. We are already at or below the NAMs low here.

[TheProfessor]

Whew today was a bit chilly. Squeaked out a high of 9 degrees , we will likely hit 0 tonight if the sky stays clear. Unfortunately it looks like my snowpack is going to start melting Friday. I'm hoping there won't be any flooding.