Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM has snow as far north as Nacogdoches.

For us I20 peeps, the DGZ around midnight looks really good on there, but NAM has a very dry layer at around 875mb which kills most from reaching the ground. RGEM does not have the 875mb dry slot that other models have. If we can get rid of the I20 dry slot we are in business as everything else looks good for some light snow up here.

[BradKingK]

NAM has snow as far north as Nacogdoches.

For us I20 peeps, the DGZ around midnight looks really good on there, but NAM has a very dry layer at around 875mb which kills most from reaching the ground. RGEM does not have the 875mb dry slot that other models have. If we can get rid of the I20 dry slot we are in business as everything else looks good for some light snow up here.

It'd be nice to see at least a light dusting, especially with all of this wonderful cold air in place.

[txtwister78]

Huge test case for this model tonight/into tomorrow morning (HRRR) because it continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast.

[Stratton23]

The HRRR will be incorrect, everyone in se texas will wake up to 2-5 inches of snow, take my statement to the bank , that model will fail

[SoupBone]

Huge test case for this model tonight/into tomorrow morning (HRRR) because it continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-nO1lN6SqgyI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/se/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-vnov4ZclMZo.png

This would be a major bust for all of the other models if this does verify. Someone is going to lose in the model wars with this event.

[Stratton23]

GRAF model is locked in over down town and it has been consistent in its placement

[Ntxw]

The panhandle always seems to sneak in for these events . Snow squall warning along that higher level front, near blizzard conditions.

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS AMARILLO TX
125 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025

TXC233-341-357-393-202015-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SQ.W.0002.250120T1925Z-250120T2015Z/
125 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
Hutchinson County-Moore County-Ochiltree County-Roberts County-

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Hutchinson County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Northwestern Roberts County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Southwestern Ochiltree County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Southeastern Moore County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 215 PM CST.

* At 124 PM CST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from 13 miles southeast of Spearman to near Dumas, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Intense bursts of heavy snow. Gusty winds leading to
blowing snow and visibility rapidly falling to less than
one-quarter mile. Wind gusts up to 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous
within minutes.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like moisture/precipitation again just outside the metro. Hopefully the low level moistens up/is moist enough for any of that to fall

[orangeblood]

Huge test case for this model tonight/into tomorrow morning (HRRR) because it continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-nO1lN6SqgyI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/se/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-vnov4ZclMZo.png

Probably another good test case for NBM too, whats the latest with it ?

[txtwister78]

Huge test case for this model tonight/into tomorrow morning (HRRR) because it continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-nO1lN6SqgyI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/se/total_snow_10to1/1737396000/1737507600-vnov4ZclMZo.png

This would be a major bust for all of the other models if this does verify. Someone is going to lose in the model wars with this event.

It's rare that the HRRR "loses" at this range. Globals more likely to be wrong than short-range high-resolution guidance but then again this is winter weather near gulf region so who in the hell knows (lol). Good news is we won't need to wait long to find out but regardless we still have a way to go it would appear with some of our weather models as its noteworthy to have to grapple with these differences less than 18-24 hours out.

[TropicalTundra]

The panhandle always seems to sneak in for these events . Snow squall warning along that higher level front, near blizzard conditions.

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS AMARILLO TX
125 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025

TXC233-341-357-393-202015-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SQ.W.0002.250120T1925Z-250120T2015Z/
125 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
Hutchinson County-Moore County-Ochiltree County-Roberts County-

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Hutchinson County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Northwestern Roberts County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Southwestern Ochiltree County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Southeastern Moore County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 215 PM CST.

* At 124 PM CST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from 13 miles southeast of Spearman to near Dumas, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Intense bursts of heavy snow. Gusty winds leading to
blowing snow and visibility rapidly falling to less than
one-quarter mile. Wind gusts up to 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous
within minutes.

[txtwister78]

You can add the RAP as well into the HRRR camp

[IcyTundra]

This was NWS Houston's snowfall forecast at 12 PM CT today. Bust potential is there for sure but they are sticking to their guns for now.

[wxman57]

Houston we have a problem. Jim Cantore is in Houston.

Yeah, we're safe now. He should go to Galveston or New Orleans for heavier snow

[IcyTundra]

Houston we have a problem. Jim Cantore is in Houston.

Yeah, we're safe now. He should go to Galveston or New Orleans for heavier snow

What does your forecast look like right now? I'm guessing higher snowfall totals in Galveston County than Harris County with dry air being an issue the further north you are?

[SoupBone]

Houston we have a problem. Jim Cantore is in Houston.

Yeah, we're safe now. He should go to Galveston or New Orleans for heavier snow

Your wall will not work here, you have no power, Cold Miser.

[txtwister78]

https://i.ibb.co/zNZT17F/Ghwe-XZOWAAATMz-N.png

This was NWS Houston's snowfall forecast at 12 PM CT today. Bust potential is there for sure but they are sticking to their guns for now.

This gets updated every hour so doesn't necessarily reflect current model runs like latest RAP and HRRR. I think NWS is putting more weight obviously in some of the WRF members but as we get closer and the hourly HRRR/RAP refuses to budge or worse continues to trend south, the bust potential rises quickly in my opinion.

[Stratton23]

Comsidering the HRRR is already off on temperatures, im not giving much weight to that model

[TomballEd]

I'd be looking more at total precip and less at snowfall forecasts. That and I don't dismiss the early 18Z guidance because they don't give me as impressive of a snowstorm as I want.

[txtwister78]

Comsidering the HRRR is already off on temperatures, im not giving much weight to that model

Temps won't be the issue. It will be the position of the low in the gulf and how quickly that moves away from the coast and as a result pulls moisture/QPF away further inland.