Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[TwisterFanatic]

Weatherman in Oklahoma says get ready for a Major, Major cold snap. He says right its looks like High not even getting into the 20's and low possible below zero.

[wx247]

Same from the mets around here. I'm ready.

[amawea]

Where are you extremeweatherguy? Looks like this is going to be an extreme event.

[Ntxw]

Where are you extremeweatherguy? Looks like this is going to be an extreme event.

He was last spotted by Santa in central Florida!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where are you extremeweatherguy? Looks like this is going to be an extreme event.

I'm still here, I just haven't been able to get on and post as often. This time of year I tend to be traveling quite a bit, and this year is no exception. I should be settled back in Oklahoma by mid month though, right around the possible peak of this arctic outbreak, so expect to see more of me by then. Definitely looks like it could get interesting across the southern plains!

[wx247]

Bought a new snow shovel today. Hope I didn't jinx myself! They were very cheap today. They must not have access to the long range weather forecasts at Lowe's. The arctic air on the models is very impressive.

[wx247]

This model flipflopping drives me insane. Time to wait for a brand new solution on the 00z models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold snap this week looks quite strong, enough to bring a chance of snow to OKC with high temperatures falling into the 20s and low temperatures falling into the upper single digits/lower teens. Certainly the coldest airmass of the season so far for the southern plains. With that said however, I do think that it could get even colder in the extended. If the longer range ECMWF and GFS trends continue, then sometime around mid-to-late month I would not at all be surprised to see a record cold snap, perhaps the most significant in several years, race southward. Its not a done deal by any means yet, but just check out that brutal cold air the ECMWF has building in NW Canada by the 15th/16th (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS240.gif), and look at what the 6z GFS is showing in the far extended (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif); that's the -4F line almost to the OK/TX border by 1am on the 19th!!

These are still just long range model solutions, and I wouldn't take them too seriously. However, the fact that there has been a trend over the past several days of a similar magnitude cold snap definitely has me interested. Usually when there is a consistent trend like this, something significant tends to play out in the end (though not always as wild as the initial model solutions depict). Based on this, the January 13th-23rd period is definitely worth keeping a close eye on for the possibility of frigid weather; even colder than this upcoming week.

BTW: The most amazing part about all of this is that we are currently in a La Nina winter! I was expecting a warm, dry and boring January, with may be one or two "normal" cold shots and perhaps a snowflake or two if lucky. The fact that we are instead looking at potentially weeks of well-below normal conditions with several winter precipitation threats is absolutely crazy to me. I definitely didn't see this coming.

[BlueIce]

These are still just long range model solutions, and I wouldn't take them too seriously. However, the fact that there has been a trend over the past several days of a similar magnitude cold snap definitely has me interested. Usually when there is a consistent trend like this, something significant tends to play out in the end (though not always as wild as the initial model solutions depict). Based on this, the January 13th-23rd period is definitely worth keeping a close eye on for the possibility of frigid weather; even colder than this upcoming week.

I agree EWG. Check out the new GFS run at 180 hours there is a mass of bitter cold air in Canada, it looks like the ranges are between -25 to -45 F and heading towards the south. The run has not fully completed yet but it looks like it is trending towards the south. This could be a very cold January.



The GFS is also very interesting. Especially for the deep south. Check out the 12z run at 84 hours its shows accumulating snow starting out in Kansas and going all the way to the border of Georgia and Alabama. It continues to increase the amount of snow in the Mississippi to Georgia region showing at 126 hours widespread snow across the region.

There also looks to be plenty of precipitable moisture in the area via the GOM.

84 Hour Precipitable Moisture



84 Hour Accumulations (3.5 days out)


126 Hour Accumulations (5 Days out)

[TwisterFanatic]

I'm supposed to pick up about 2-5 total inches between both systems. Exciting times.

[amawea]

They are forecasting about 2 inches for us along the Ar/Mo border Monday evening. I hope we get a little more.

[BlueIce]

We are having a very decent snow shower at the house right now. It looks like it is starting to accumulate on the grass and the bushes.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wx247]

Yeah, things are looking interesting across unadvised portions of Oklahoma this afternoon. Snow reports are coming in Tulsa and Muskogee at this hour.

[TwisterFanatic]

Just started snowing here about 30 minutes ago. Atmosphere finally moistened up.

[TwisterFanatic]

Got a good couple inches, and supposed to get another 1-3 tomorrow afternoon/night

[wx247]

Wound up with a nice dusting last night. Heavier stuff should come today. Expecting 2-3" (maybe a tad more) today.

[wx247]

I received just a bit over 2" of snow from this system. Now, this morning the thermometer is sitting at 1º. I would hate to see the temp if we actually had a decent snowcover.

Time to move on to the next system... things looks borderline for early next week.

[TwisterFanatic]

Going on 120 straight hours below freezing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z ECMWF looks interesting. If it is correct, then Oklahoma City would receive freezing rain turning to sleet next Thursday/Friday followed by snow on Saturday.

[wx247]

The models are all over the place. Let's have some consensus please. Thanks!