Texas Winter 2012-2013

[HockeyTx82]

So whose has their coffee brewing and popcorn in the microwave?

[somethingfunny]

So whose has their coffee brewing and popcorn in the microwave?

I'm not there yet. I don't normally go to bed for a few more hours anyway, so we'll see what the radar looks like then.... and then I might make some coffee.

[bella_may]

Is it just me or does anyone else think the temps could be much cooler than expected?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Could be interesting with the band forming in SE NM. We will see what comes of it. I will be up for a couple more hours to see if anything fun will develop overnight.

[Ntxw]

Hmmm where's weatherguy425? Snow should be arriving in Lubbock soon!

[Turtle]

This is from the Shreveport NWS @ 9:30 PM:

RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILLCLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

My lows are bumped up to 44F now. The HRRR did show some snow for my area but I think it will be all rain.

[somethingfunny]

Who remembers this depressing update from Fort Worth earlier?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS AND COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE SNOW
POTENTIAL...WILL LEAVE 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND ALONG THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
YESTERDAY AND TODAY INDICATE THAT THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
DECREASE AS THE UPPER AXIS ARRIVES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY.
ALSO...MOISTURE FLUX AND 850-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THIS
SYSTEM IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. 75

Well... look at what's popping up in our southeastern counties! Are moisture levels higher than anticipated?



Here is FWD's latest discussion:

937 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM IN THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
CHANGES TO REDUCE POPS AND MINIMIZED COVERAGE SEEM REASONABLE
WHEN COMPARED TO THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS.

AN AREA OF SNOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT/S NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SNOW INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THEN EAST ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 AND ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT
FORECAST...WHICH REINFORCES THE FORECAST OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION...AND FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE METROPLEX.
IF THE MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THEN MORE SNOW WOULD DEVELOP AND FALL...
BUT WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 75

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

We expect to see some pretty artistic snowmen from down there!!!

(thinking positive here)

[somethingfunny]

It'll have to be a two-dimensional drawing of a snowman; if I'm lucky I'll use the hood of my car as a canvas.

The leading edge of that snowband is really booking toward the east. I'm estimating somewhere between 60-80 mph based on the radar loops. Assume each of those counties is about 30 miles across, and I've been posting 70-minute loops....

[somethingfunny]

From Facebook:

The models actually did do a pretty good job at picking up the post frontal showers and storms. See my posting from Friday for shower/storm chances for Sunday night...pretty good match. Also, the snow blob coming out of west TX and E NM was also a pretty good match. What I don't see matching is this widespread snowfall from our latest model...makes no sense to me.
10 minutes ago · Unlike · 5

I agree, the NWS forecast will verify - as in, those flurries will happen across the area they painted with 20-30% chances. It won't be more than that, but that possibility which was suggested is coming true. We've just gotta watch the southern end of that snowband as it moves eastward, where will it set up at the end? The US 380 corridor? I-20? US 82 or, God forbid, US 70? And why don't we have any due east-west corridors south of I-20? I feel so sorry for crosscountry travellers who would like to avoid DFW traffic! Maybe I'm studying this radar map a little too closely.



The dewpoint at Dallas Love Field has crashed. We had 32 last hour, and 15 now. That's dangerously dry for a delicate little snowflake...

[ludosc]

Steve McCauley on Facebook about a hour ago...

Well, after looking at all the data, I still cannot figure out what this model is seeing, and I haven't a clue why it is going for significant snowfall in our area. But at the same time I am wondering something: Since I have been downplaying the snow chances here in the metro all week, am I subconciously avoiding the notion that it could possibly snow this much by tomorrow morning simply because I hate changing my forecast so drastically at the last minute?

Calling Dr. Freud ... Calling Dr. Freud

[somethingfunny]

I think that the virgablob developing out by Wichita Falls will serve to moisten the atmosphere ahead of the main snow band. The forecast still looks to be on track in my opinion - a dusting for the northwestern counties and just flurries for the rest of us... but this is starting to look impressive:

[somethingfunny]

Wichita Falls got actual snow!

Images from Wichita Falls tonight, via Twitter:







And the snow band keeps trucking along:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

TXZ091-092-100>102-101100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-
323 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...SHORT TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

YOUNG...JACK...MONTAGUE...WISE AND COOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM
CST.

A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM SPOTTERS REPORT THAT THIS
BAND OF SNOW PRODUCED UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IN UNDER AN HOUR
AROUND WICHITA FALLS BEFORE 3 AM CST.

BECAUSE THIS BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING QUICKLY...COUNTIES INCLUDED IN
THIS ADVISORY SHOULD NOT SEE MORE THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW AS THIS
BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 281 IN JACK COUNTY AND HIGHWAY 287 IN MONTAGUE COUNTY.

LOW VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN 15 MINUTES.
DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRIEFLY
CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS INCLUDED WITHIN THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER ONCE SNOW STOPS FALLING...MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO MELT
BY SUNRISE.

$$

CAVANAUGH

[ludosc]

just took this video outside...

from just west of downtown Fort Worth...was pretty but it didn't last long...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35ox7dLquJ4[/youtube]

[HockeyTx82]

Snowed here in Corinth for the last 20min or so. Slight dusting on cars and low cut grass areas. Very nice to see.

On a side note I left a window open last night by accident and forgot to turn on the heater. Needless to say I look like this right now

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Snow on the ground in Richardson.

[ravyrn]

Out of Little Elm, TX (20 miles north of Dallas):
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oir14pFJTgI&feature=g-crec-u[/youtube]

Also a couple of pics:


And a special pic for our resident Heat Miser:

[iorange55]

Well down here on "the hill" we're seeing a little flurry action, just enough to make the roofs slightly white. Not the one or two inch amount the short-range models were predicting!

Looks like the NWS was right again for the most part...darn them!

EDIT: Also, great picture ravyrn!

[ravyrn]

Well down here on "the hill" we're seeing a little flurry action, just enough to make the roofs slightly white. Not the one or two inch amount the short-range models were predicting!

Looks like the NWS was right again for the most part...darn them!

EDIT: Also, great picture ravyrn!

Yeah we were just a little too far south, and the snow band also thinned out some just as it arrived at the metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Woke up to a coating of snow here in Irving. Decided to do this!



Since I got some I'm sure the airport did too, no shut out!