Texas Winter 2013-2014

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS continues the trend of the 0z run and says No Mas for end of week winter storm. However, it does have another good rain event for my area. I've already received close to 2" of rain this morning. Lots of cold air has been wasted this winter.

[Ntxw]

I have noted that the system is moving through fairly quickly, also quite a dry slot developing. Remainder of event may be short lived. Sun already out here at Del Rio.

Ah yes, the proverbial dry slot. Bet that has people nervous

[Ntxw]

12z GFS continues the trend of the 0z run and says No Mas for end of week winter storm. However, it does have another good rain event for my area. I've already received close to 2" of rain this morning. Lots of cold air has been wasted this winter.

Yes...sends it to...Kansas! That's a shock right there.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS continues the trend of the 0z run and says No Mas for end of week winter storm. However, it does have another good rain event for my area. I've already received close to 2" of rain this morning. Lots of cold air has been wasted this winter.

Yes...sends it to...Kansas! That's a shock right there.

Yep, even the NWS national weather desk this morning listed numerous reasons why the GFS deterministic runs right now are clueless. Euro ensembles show a much more serious potential for next week.

[hriverajr]

I have noted that the system is moving through fairly quickly, also quite a dry slot developing. Remainder of event may be short lived. Sun already out here at Del Rio.

Ah yes, the proverbial dry slot. Bet that has people nervous

All you have to do is look at the regional radar and extrapolate.

[katheria]

dry air blahhhh....
oh well off to work i go in the morning lol..........

been a interesting winter, not over yet
there's always next year

[ndale]

12z GFS continues the trend of the 0z run and says No Mas for end of week winter storm. However, it does have another good rain event for my area. I've already received close to 2" of rain this morning. Lots of cold air has been wasted this winter.

Yeah, EWX still has a chance of wintry precip in my forecast for Thur/Fri but after the last 2 gfs runs they will probably take it out then by tomorrow when the model runs change again will have a completely different forecast. Looks like it is going to be one of those weeks.

[TheProfessor]

The southern part of the precipitation is starting to strengthen, it is starting to dump .75 inch of what would be rain. which is equaled to about 1.5-2.25 inches of sleet per hour. it looks like this is the band that will impact the metroplex.

[dhweather]

Well, the GFS says we're good for nothing.

Despite that, it's 32.1 in Heath.

[Portastorm]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

VALID 12Z WED FEB 05 2014 - 12Z SUN FEB 09 2014


...STORM PATTERN TO CONTINUE COAST TO COAST THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...


AN ENERGETIC, SPLIT FLOW IS PROGGED BY ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODELS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THE
SECOND-OF-TWO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVES EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NATION
AMONG THE 00Z/02 GUIDANCE WAS EASILY SORTED OUT BY LOOKING AT
MULTI-DAY TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS--WITH THE MIDDLE-GROUND
STANCE OF THE ECENS MEAN HOLDING UP BEST. THE GEFS IS A SLOW
OUTLIER--THE CMCE A FAST, WEAK OUTLIER.

AS PER THE ECENS MEAN, THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF CYCLONES SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS THE GULF STATES, THEN NORTHEAST
ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TELECONNECTS WITH THE NEW DEEP COLD OVER THE ALASKA REGION. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, WITH
RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT AND ITS WAVES TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. ONCE THEY REACH
THE APPALACHIANS, BOTH MAJOR WAVES--DAYS 3 AND 7--LOOK TO BE
SPLIT, MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS, WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD-AIR DAMMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


CISCO

[Wthrlvrmom]

It is a steady 31F at my house in northern Weatherford. It seems quiet with no percip, not even rain at the moment. Is there something making it's way? NWS showed 90% sleet and snow for this afternoon?

[dhweather]

The southern part of the precipitation is starting to strengthen, it is starting to dump .75 inch of what would be rain. which is equaled to about 1.5-2.25 inches of sleet per hour. it looks like this is the band that will impact the metroplex.

It looks like it's exciting around Mineral Wells. Thundersleet?

[Ntxw]

AS PER THE ECENS MEAN, THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF CYCLONES SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS THE GULF STATES, THEN NORTHEAST
ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TELECONNECTS WITH THE NEW DEEP COLD OVER THE ALASKA REGION. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, WITH
RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT AND ITS WAVES TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. ONCE THEY REACH
THE APPALACHIANS, BOTH MAJOR WAVES--DAYS 3 AND 7--LOOK TO BE
SPLIT, MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS, WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD-AIR DAMMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


CISCO

I made an innocent post the other day about Russia's cold crossing the pole. With 570dm rex block over the Aleutian(on it's own an extreme anomaly) that is exactly what is about to happen. I'm afraid the continent is about to be flooded with cold so strong the models are not handling it well at all. Though I shouldn't say all, ENS and Cfsv2 have foreseen it.

In sequence

[Lagreeneyes03]

AS PER THE ECENS MEAN, THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF CYCLONES SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS THE GULF STATES, THEN NORTHEAST
ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TELECONNECTS WITH THE NEW DEEP COLD OVER THE ALASKA REGION. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, WITH
RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT AND ITS WAVES TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. ONCE THEY REACH
THE APPALACHIANS, BOTH MAJOR WAVES--DAYS 3 AND 7--LOOK TO BE
SPLIT, MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS, WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD-AIR DAMMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


CISCO

I made an innocent post the other day about Russia's cold crossing the pole. With 570dm rex block over the Aleutian(on it's own an extreme anomaly) that is exactly what is about to happen. I'm afraid the continent is about to be flooded with cold so strong the models are not handling it well at all. Though I shouldn't say all, ENS and Cfsv2 have foreseen it.

What does this mean for Texas?

[SouthernMet]

looks like precip might finally be forming out ahead of the main band.. dry slot will start to fill in

[TheProfessor]

Radar showing 1.2 inch per hour returns now.

[TheProfessor]

light freezing rain falling now.

[Ntxw]

Looks like something you see in the springtime. Big line with storms popping up ahead of it, maybe we'll see more of these in a couple of months.

[paulb]

Still freezing rain and sleet mix in Paradise (6 miles southeast of Bridgeport).

[SouthernMet]

Fort Worth & Denton 31 degrees with the onset of the precip. let's see how long it takes to drop to the 20's.

Mineral Wells-Decatur-Gainesville line is getting it really bad atm, by looking at the scanners, visibilities, temps & road conditions.