Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TrekkerCC]

Estimated 3.75" - 4" in Richardson, TX using my makeshift ruler.

[Anthony]

Here's the view from work here in SA:



Took video, i'll edit and upload later.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Winter Storm Warning!!!

[opticsguy]

I just woke up and looked outside (N. Dallas near Addison). 3" easily. It looked like a dry slot was forming W of I-35 on the radar, but it's filling in, so we may not be done.

This is the day most of the private jets are supposed to arrive for SB XLV. KADS was supposed to go to 24 hour tower operation to handle the traffic.

[SouthernMet]

And here it is... FTW NWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
414 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-041800-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0003.110204T1014Z-110204T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...
ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI
414 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TODAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CAUSING AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY
HAZARDOUS...AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY. KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED

[ravyrn]

Winter Storm Warning!!!

I've been looking at TWC radar and patiently waiting for 6" to start popping up on the 24hr snowfall on the interactive map. Surely it'll start popping up in the next hour or two. I'm slightly out on the westside of the heavy stuff in Little Elm and we have about 3.5 inches now. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 6" reports in the next 2 hrs from areas to my east and southeast.

[ravyrn]

NWS Ft Worth just updated their graphic again

[SouthernMet]

Concensus is N of I-20 and E of I-35 3-6" with the mesoscale banding setting up.

[Kelarie]

When I went to bed last night NWS was saying less than an 1", right now everything is covered by white and more is coming down. There is more than an 1" outside. Back to Winter Wonderland for TXK.

[somethingfunny]

Er, that's nice of them to update the forecast totals to 3-6", but there's already 6" on the ground in some areas and it's not over yet...not close to over, I don't think.

This is like last February all over again, constantly playing catch up.

I have 5" on the ground now.

[ravyrn]

Concensus is N of I-20 and E of I-35 3-6" with the mesoscale banding setting up.

Based upon the accumulation graphic provided by NWS Ft Worth, do you think they're still being too conservative? I think that 6" area should stretch further east and south based upon reports and that band pumping into the area.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[ravyrn]

Er, that's nice of them to update the forecast totals to 3-6", but there's already 6" on the ground in some areas and it's not over yet...not close to over, I don't think.

This is like last February all over again, constantly playing catch up.

I have 5" on the ground now.

Yeah I'm interested to see what the highest local accumulation total will be tomorrow. 8"-10" could be possible.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[goCoogs]

Watching the 4:00 am news here in Houston. There are accidents all over the city. A 13 car pileup at 290 and Senate. Police are only responding to accidents if there is an injury. Otherwise they are leaving it to the tow truck drivers to clear. Urging people to dial 311 for accidents with no injuries.

[MSUDawg]

I'm on the southwest edge of the 6" circle and have 2.5" in centreport... I want my other 3.5"

[aubrn34]

I just took pics. 4.5" on my car, 5.5" in a little snow drift under my car.

[TrekkerCC]

NWS Ft. Worth Office Discussion is out:

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH 2 TO 4+ INCHES
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. AN INITIAL HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS
HEAVY BAND SEEMED TO FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGING THETA-E
GRADIENT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN
LOCATIONS NEAR THE METROPLEX IN ABOUT AN HOUR. AFTER THIS...MUCH
LIGHTER SNOW HAS PERSISTED WITH VISIBILITIES AT LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 3/4 AND 3 MILES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
KILLEEN. BEHIND THIS LINE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUES
WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING
HAS LED TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR DALLAS...HUNT
AND KAUFMAN COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A SHERMAN TO DENTON TO
DALLAS LINE. STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES
FOR THESE AREAS.

AFTER 12Z...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE HRRR MODEL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
/NAM..GFS...ECMWF/ HAVE HANDLED THIS EVENT POORLY OVER THE LAST 7
DAYS AS THEY HAD A HARD TIME DETERMINING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FOR THE UPPER LOW. MODELS TEND TO UNDERDO MOISTURE WITH A SYSTEM
LIKE THIS AND THE HRRR MODEL HAS HANDLED SHORT TERM TRENDS FAIRLY
WELL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS
WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP SHOULD
CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA BY NOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
NEAR PARIS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 20S WITH CLOUD
COVER AND PLENTY OF SNOW COVER. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP WITH A SLOW WARM UP. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
ANY CHANGES.

ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BEYOND THIS FRONT WITH SOUTH FLOW
RETURNING BY MONDAY EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEXMOS APPEARS TOO WARM WITH ITS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL BLEND THE COLDER ECMWF AND MEXMOS FOR THE EXTENDED BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

Incredible that the model of choice for this event is a short range experimental model (the HRRR). What an incredibly poor job that the GFS, NAM, etc has done with this event.

[ravyrn]

Pink starting to show up on the past 24hr snowfall option on TWC's interactive radar map. Pink = 6" starting to pop up around Terrell and Kaufman. This should quickly expand northwest.

[SouthernMet]

Concensus is N of I-20 and E of I-35 3-6" with the mesoscale banding setting up.

Based upon the accumulation graphic provided by NWS Ft Worth, do you think they're still being too conservative? I think that 6" area should stretch further east and south based upon reports and that band pumping into the area.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Well I think the 3-5" swath should be extended southward to all of Ellis counties and Kaufman counties. Now the 6" swath looks decent maybe a slightly further east towards Mckinney and rest of Dallas county. As for further accum, isolated 8" cannont be ruled out SE of a Mckinney-Lewisville-North Dallas line. But locally 6" looks reasonable across the WSW area. NWS has trended slowly better and better it took them a while but I think they have a fairly good handle on the situation atm so to answer your question I don't think they are being drasticly conservative.

[SouthernMet]

Intrested in a Porta specific report as Austin got some light snow and decent amounts of accumulative ice as well and obviously causing major problems for the Austin morning commute.

EDIT: Am think the activity intensifying from Graham to Mineral Wells w of Stephenville will be the last accumulating snowfall band for DFW(1-2") other than light snow/flurries.

[ravyrn]

Well I think the 3-5" swath should be extended southward to all of Ellis counties and Kaufman counties. Now the 6" swath looks decent maybe a slightly further east towards Mckinney and rest of Dallas county. As for further accum, isolated 8" cannont be ruled out SE of a Mckinney-Lewisville-North Dallas line. But locally 6" looks reasonable across the WSW area. NWS has trended slowly better and better it took them a while but I think they have a fairly good handle on the situation atm so to answer your question I don't think they are being drasticly conservative.

Yeah I can definitely agree with that. In hindsight, I was basing part of my opinion on TWC's interactive radar map, and radar hasn't necessarily done a great job with this system.