Texas Winter 2013-2014

[orangeblood]

IMO, Last night's DGEX (extended NAM) looks much more reasonable for both storms later this week - one piece of energy moves across the state on Thursday and then the Upper Level Low passes overhead on Saturday - taking a path directly through central Texas. Both storms bring widespread winter precip to a big portion of the state because the DGEX doesn't erode the cold air nearly as much as the GFS


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.pcp120.gif


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

Have to agree here, it's one of the losses of a cold winter. Texas gulf shelf waters are cold and less likely to return moisture/warmth come spring for severe weather. Cold winters often translate to cool springs thus reducing severe outbreaks. The last stat I still need to dig into but it's a trend over the years, I'll try to post numbers/correlation in the spring thread next month.

[dhweather]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

If there is a Stage 4 does new home construction have to stop or something? Only asking because I should have a new home break ground in March..

Honestly I don't know. I do know that car washes will be all but killed, only greens can be watered at golf courses, industry shall reduce usage by a certain percentage. it's not going to be pretty.

[gboudx]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

If there is a Stage 4 does new home construction have to stop or something? Only asking because I should have a new home break ground in March..

No they won't stop new home construction. They won't allow permits for pools and they put further restrictions on landscape watering, car washing, golf courses, and more. You can read more about it at the link below, starting on page 3-9. Keep in mind that this is for the NTWMD, so I'm don't know if other Metroplex water districts will go Stage 4.

http://www.ntmwd.com/downloads/plans/pl ... rought.pdf

[Ntxw]

Was just saying that it is trending warmer by a little. Yes we are still in the 30's for a long stretch.

No worries run to run variables are normal. The models have been beaten by the air masses on almost all the cold waves we've had so far this season by a good 3-5 degrees. As Portastorm said yesterday follow them at our own risks . Earlier this weekend they didn't even have such a prolonged stretch of cold, only cfsv2 and ens saw it until now.

[texas1836]

Making matters worse, I'm anticipating a relatively dry spring. Stage 4 drought, here we come!

From what I've heard, it's already here but just hasn't been announced yet. The NTMWD had a meeting a couple weeks ago and decided to implement Stage 4, but hasn't publicly announced it. This is "rumour" at this time, but I heard it from a friend who's friend is an attorney who sits on the NTMWD board meetings. But still more permits are given for further housing developments putting further strain on a dwindling resource.

They are going to have to stop the growth. Hate it, the construction industry is just now recovering from the 2008 crash, and now this. Too many people and not close to enough water.

I've been telling people that for years. Those who keep building are the problem, then complain they can't water. It really doesn't matter how much rain we get anymore, the lakes are sucked dry much quicker now, due to all the new building. Rain is alway our primary watering source, rain barrels are my secondary.

[wxman22]

12z GFS looks interesting on this weekends cold core low...

[Portastorm]

Was just saying that it is trending warmer by a little. Yes we are still in the 30's for a long stretch.

No worries run to run variables are normal. The models have been beaten by the air masses on almost all the cold waves we've had so far this season by a good 3-5 degrees. As Portastorm said yesterday follow them at our own risks . Earlier this weekend they didn't even have such a prolonged stretch of cold, only cfsv2 and ens saw it until now.

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect. Some work well some weeks or days and then don't work so well. They are tools for the forecasters ... they do not create weather and become self-fulfilling prophecies! Why do you think a seasoned and respected professional like wxman57 frequently tells us to not trust models until you get within several days of an event ... and even then, sometimes it is within 48 hours of the event?!

In some respects it is just like how this forum should be used. Don't just show up on a page, see a post, then respond without understanding what has been said leading up to that post. Read the previous few pages ... get the context of the conversation because that is what this is folks ... an ongoing conversation. Do you jump in the middle of a conversation with friends or co-workers without first knowing what's being discussed and what has been discussed? The same goes here.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is cold for Dallas-Ft. Worth later (21F) this week but no precip. About 10 degrees less cold in Houston and no precip. My web server is down and I can't post the meteograms at the moment. It is now indicating some snow for D-FW next Sunday. I think it's just teasing you. I don't expect much more than temps in the mid to upper 30s and light rain here in Houston later this week.

[dhweather]

Joe B tweets



GFS has irresponsible 8 day snow total.Disregard until it has Seal of Approval from weather info authority(sarc)

[dhweather]

12Z GFS is cold for Dallas-Ft. Worth later (21F) this week but no precip. About 10 degrees less cold in Houston and no precip. My web server is down and I can't post the meteograms at the moment. It is now indicating some snow for D-FW next Sunday. I think it's just teasing you. I don't expect much more than temps in the mid to upper 30s and light rain here in Houston later this week.

Here you go:

[Meteorcane]

Was just saying that it is trending warmer by a little. Yes we are still in the 30's for a long stretch.

No worries run to run variables are normal. The models have been beaten by the air masses on almost all the cold waves we've had so far this season by a good 3-5 degrees. As Portastorm said yesterday follow them at our own risks . Earlier this weekend they didn't even have such a prolonged stretch of cold, only cfsv2 and ens saw it until now.

It's disappointing to see that some here continue to live and die with every model run. One of my hopes for Storm2K has always been that folks read and learn. It appears some are reading but they're not learning much. Computer models are to be taken in context with many things, including what is happening real time with the weather. Computer models have biases and none are perfect. Some work well some weeks or days and then don't work so well. They are tools for the forecasters ... they do not create weather and become self-fulfilling prophecies! Why do you think a seasoned and respected professional like wxman57 frequently tells us to not trust models until you get within several days of an event ... and even then, sometimes it is within 48 hours of the event?!

In some respects it is just like how this forum should be used. Don't just show up on a page, see a post, then respond without understanding what has been said leading up to that post. Read the previous few pages ... get the context of the conversation because that is what this is folks ... an ongoing conversation. Do you jump in the middle of a conversation with friends or co-workers without first knowing what's being discussed and what has been discussed? The same goes here.

Excellently stated, run to run variations (especially in dynamic winter regimes) are expected, and naturally these variations become larger the further out in time you go out in the model. Variations within the short term (24-48 hours) are much more significant because they likely imply correction/adjustment after data assimilation of observational data however, variations with systems a week+ in advance could very well be due to random noise/chaos theory/butterfly affect, which all essentially describe the propagation and magnification of errors with time. That fact is one of the reasons I like probabilistic/ensemble forecasting, because in the longer range imo it provides better guidance than a deterministic forecast.

Then there is also the point you mentioned, i.e. non-random errors or biases, which are indeed present in even highly sophisticated models like the ECMWF, GFS, etc. Unlike the random errors, however, these are quasi-correctable as if for example you have noticed a certain model always forecasts temperatures 5 degrees too high in a particular location during a particular event, you can apply a reasonable correction to the raw model temperature forecast.

Aside:I say quasi-correctable because as weather forecasters learned early on in the days of analog forecasting, the atmosphere never is in the exact same state twice. Yes there are patterns that repeat themselves (many atmospheric phenomena are wave-like or periodic) but the cold-front that passed two years ago is not the same cold front occurring today, so even if the atmospheric setup looks remarkably similar to previous events in which say the model forecasted temperature 5 degrees too warm you can't definitively say that the temperature during this event will be 5 degrees warmer than the model output. You can (and probably should) use that knowledge in your forecast, but you can't say it with certainty.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS for Houston

[dhweather]

For giggles, 12Z GFS extended

[ronyan]

I'm not seeing anything close to a 10 degree increase in temperatures on that meteogram for Houston...someone is wishing for spring to come early. It's about 1F warmer overall than the 0z from last night.

[Meteorcane]

I'm not seeing anything close to a 10 degree increase in temperatures on that meteogram for Houston...someone is wishing for spring to come early. It's about 1F warmer overall than the 0z from last night.

I don't want to put words in dhweather's mouth but I think he was implying the temperature for Houston was generally 10 degrees warmer than Dallas, not 10 degrees warmer than Houston's 0z temps.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything close to a 10 degree increase in temperatures on that meteogram for Houston...someone is wishing for spring to come early. It's about 1F warmer overall than the 0z from last night.

I don't want to put words in wxman57's mouth but I think he was implying the temperature for Houston was generally 10 degrees warmer than Dallas, not 10 degrees warmer than Houston's 0z temps.

Correct. The Dallas-Ft. Worth meteogram had a low of 21 there this Thursday morning while the Houston meteogram has 33 for our low Thursday. That's 13 degrees less cold than Dallas.

[ronyan]

I'm not seeing anything close to a 10 degree increase in temperatures on that meteogram for Houston...someone is wishing for spring to come early. It's about 1F warmer overall than the 0z from last night.

I don't want to put words in wxman57's mouth but I think he was implying the temperature for Houston was generally 10 degrees warmer than Dallas, not 10 degrees warmer than Houston's 0z temps.

Correct. The Dallas-Ft. Worth meteogram had a low of 21 there this Thursday morning while the Houston meteogram has 33 for our low Thursday. That's 13 degrees less cold than Dallas.

Ah, I didn't catch that, sorry for the confusion. It's very common for DFW to be 10-12 degrees F colder than us, especially with a cold air mass coming down the Rockies. These cold rain events are the worst, here's to hoping the GFS trends down a few degrees.

[TheProfessor]

more precipitation would be great as well.

[dhweather]

The GFS has a whopping .24 (liquid) for Mesquite through 192 hours. I fear the drought situation, I'm afraid it will be 2006/12 bad.