Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

That's the second met I've seen from Alabama mention arctic air and it's harder for them to get it(they got basically nothing in 2021)...

[txtwister78]

That's the second met I've seen from Alabama mention arctic air and it's harder for them to get it(they got basically nothing in 2021)...

No SE ridge (at least for now) and so the arctic cold doesn't meet any resistance as it overwhelms much of the country. Going to be a question of where the storm track sets up if these ensembles play out as advertised now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just took a stroll down memory lane in the 2020-2021 Winter Weather Thread. Those GFS extremes really did come true.

What a crazy storm and cold to have experienced.

I had forgotten just how cold and for how long it got.

Were you around for the 1983 or 1989 freezes? They were both colder and longer lasting. Single digits in Houston with highs in the low 20s. Below freezing for 5 days the week of Christmas.

I vaguely remember the blast of ‘83. It was my first memory in Longview.

1989 is what hooked me to weather and why I have my name ThunderSleetDreams. I’ve told the story on here a lot but it was 75 and storming and a hour later it was 25 and Thunder Sleet with lightning then a severe Thunder snow cell dumped 4 inches in a matter of minutes on top of ice. It was a white Christmas!

[Stratton23]

If i remember correctly, the GFS was the first model even in long range to sniff out the February 2021 arctic outbreak

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/GmtwSmI7GlI?feature=shared

Here's a gem I found in my family video that was converted from VHS to DVD that I pulled and made digital for YouTube.

I'm the older one.

My mom giving the forecast, now I know where I get it from!

The snow gear was for visiting family in Iowa and Colorado. I had to ask my mom why we had that for Texas.

[txtwister78]

If i remember correctly, the GFS was the first model even in long range to sniff out the February 2021 arctic outbreak

Correct, as was the ICON in the medium range. Euro was out to lunch for a while before it caught up. Doesn't handle arctic air very well down the plains into Texas.

[Brent]

Yes I famously remember the Euro being out to lunch in 2021 til pretty late in the game(like obvious)

[Ntxw]

The ensembles are a good tool to sniff out periods of cold outbursts. When you get them all to show consistent below normal temperatures across the board then you're probably looking at some kind of outbreak in the works. GEFS, EPS, GEPS all point to a turn to colder after the calendar flips.

[Ntxw]

Yes I famously remember the Euro being out to lunch in 2021 til pretty late in the game(like obvious)

Euro busted pretty good on just about most of the big outbreaks. It was absolutely bad during the shallow cold air dump in late Jan and early Feb of 2023. One of its biggest strengths is scoring really high at 500mb, but sometimes that's too much of a good thing as the surface can be disconnected with that flow.

[Iceresistance]

If i remember correctly, the GFS was the first model even in long range to sniff out the February 2021 arctic outbreak

I think it was the GEFS that made us notice. We didn't trust the GFS in that kind of range

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Yes I famously remember the Euro being out to lunch in 2021 til pretty late in the game(like obvious)

Euro busted pretty good on just about most of the big outbreaks. It was absolutely bad during the shallow cold air dump in late Jan and early Feb of 2023. One of its biggest strengths is scoring really high at 500mb, but sometimes that's too much of a good thing as the surface can be disconnected with that flow.

We had a SSW in beginning of February 2021 and we got real cold from it and stormy with the troughing further west

[Golfisnteasy7575]

That's the second met I've seen from Alabama mention arctic air and it's harder for them to get it(they got basically nothing in 2021)...

No SE ridge (at least for now) and so the arctic cold doesn't meet any resistance as it overwhelms much of the country. Going to be a question of where the storm track sets up if these ensembles play out as advertised now.

I think it's good to have some resistance to develop a good barclinic zone. That's why troughing is good further west to pop somewhat of a se ridge but not alot

[Ntxw]

That's the second met I've seen from Alabama mention arctic air and it's harder for them to get it(they got basically nothing in 2021)...

No SE ridge (at least for now) and so the arctic cold doesn't meet any resistance as it overwhelms much of the country. Going to be a question of where the storm track sets up if these ensembles play out as advertised now.

I think it's good to have some resistance to develop a good barclinic zone. That's why troughing is good further west to pop somewhat of a se ridge but not alot

There used to be a different way to get snow. You would have little SE ridge, -AO and eastern trough. Then the STJ would cut underneath and the marginal snow events happen. That's been rare these days though because the northern jet (polar jets) have been strong. DFW's two largest snowstorms in Jan 1964 and Feb 2010 happened this way.

[gpsnowman]

Yes I famously remember the Euro being out to lunch in 2021 til pretty late in the game(like obvious)

Euro busted pretty good on just about most of the big outbreaks. It was absolutely bad during the shallow cold air dump in late Jan and early Feb of 2023. One of its biggest strengths is scoring really high at 500mb, but sometimes that's too much of a good thing as the surface can be disconnected with that flow.

We had a SSW in beginning of February 2021 and we got real cold from it and stormy with the troughing further west

If I am not mistaken, I believe the SSWE that year took place in early January and the lengthy lag time resulted in our Feb 2021 event, along with perfectly timed blocking elsewhere. Perhaps I am shaky on the memory.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has the signal of pretty big system coming in for the new year.

[Brent]

0z GFS has the signal of pretty big system coming in for the new year.

That matches the ensembles here... January 2nd-4th. Initial cold front is NYE or January 1st

[Cpv17]

0z GFS has the signal of pretty big system coming in for the new year.

6z GFS does as well.

[Sambucol2024]

0z GFS has the signal of pretty big system coming in for the new year.

6z GFS does as well.

Does it resemble the February 2021 event that took out the power grid in Texas?

[txtwister78]

0z GFS has the signal of pretty big system coming in for the new year.

6z GFS does as well.

Does it resemble the February 2021 event that took out the power grid in Texas?

Important to remember that Feb 2021 was a benchmark event in weather. In other words, a rare and hopefully once in a lifetime type event. Doesn't mean we can't see super cold temps and winter weather obviously, but the magnitude of that event overall was so high/impactful that it probably won't be repeated for quite some time thankfully.

Down here however, it doesn't take a whole lot of cold and winter weather to add to the record books so everything involving both is meaningful and noteworthy on its own.

[Brent]

Well apparently a suburb is testing the snow plows

Interesting timing

TWC app has some light snow the night of the 2nd into the 3rd