Texas Winter 2025-2026

[gpsnowman]

Good grief

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G72ok1lW0AIdEty?format=png&name=medium

This is sickening. Say goodbye to a lot of snowpack.

[Brent]

Good grief

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G72ok1lW0AIdEty?format=png&name=medium

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

[Ntxw]

Good grief

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G72ok1lW0AIdEty?format=png&name=medium

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

DFW has not had a below normal December in 12 years. 2013. Not one, and the new averages went up in 2021, which nudged the baseline up and we couldn't even do that.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Good grief

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G72ok1lW0AIdEty?format=png&name=medium

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

DFW has not had a below normal December in 12 years. 2013. Not one, and the new averages went up in 2021, which nudged the baseline up and we couldn't even do that.

Ntwx, in all seriousness, what should we watch for that would signal a change moving forward? Im kinda intrigued in the pdo, which has weakened substantially from where it was

[Ntxw]

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

DFW has not had a below normal December in 12 years. 2013. Not one, and the new averages went up in 2021, which nudged the baseline up and we couldn't even do that.

Ntwx, in all seriousness, what should we watch for that would signal a change moving forward? Im kinda intrigued in the pdo, which has weakened substantially from where it was

MJO 1/2/3 or fading 7 into cod. -EPO plunge coupled with -AO would really boost confidence. Source is cold we just need delivery teleconnections.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Gary Lezak of the recurring cycle idea seems to be a little depressing, emphasizing the lack of snow over CO, limited deep cold intrusions so far. But, he does indicate that there is a pattern that will produce eventually.

Eventually= always 2 weeks out. LOL

[Brent]

Heck I heard even the ski resorts are struggling to our northwest. Tahoe way down from normal for sure

Endless snow in Iowa doesn't do us any good

[Stratton23]

GFS really wants to retrograde that - WPO ridge over Alaska , presumably that would be a - EPO signature

[Brent]

I see nothing good in time for Christmas right now... Maybe a weak front if we're lucky(im talking like probably still above normal)

Hopefully January will be better

[Stratton23]

Just looked at overnight ensembles, AO/ EPO are both trending in the right direction, GEFS now goes negative with the AO

[DallasAg]

Heck I heard even the ski resorts are struggling to our northwest. Tahoe way down from normal for sure

Endless snow in Iowa doesn't do us any good

This is very true. A lot of the Utah and CO resorts had to delay opening this year. My place in Crested Butte is off to a very rough start. Normally by now most of the mountain would be open and they'd be somewhere north of 60" for the season. Instead, we've had one decent snow (this past Saturday) that dumped about a foot and that's been it. Lots of brown in areas, and nothing in the forecast. Maybe the AR that's pummeling the PacNW will eventually ride the flow and make it into the Rockies, but what we really need for good beneficial snows there is a southwest fetch and with the ridge parked where it is that doesn't look likely.

Strange start to the winter in so many areas. Plenty of cold to be had in the right areas, and some folks in a narrow corridor are cashing in on snow. Still early though. And a warm Christmas will be good for the kiddos who get bikes I guess. #brightside.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Cancel

[Brent]

It's kind of funny actually that Sunday may be below freezing all day here we actually haven't had one of those yet... 36 is the coldest high from the 1st so it's very likely the coldest day of the season so far

That and Christmas is 14 days away. It's insane how far away it is and yet everyone including me is convinced of some historic torch like nobody has ever seen

[TeamPlayersBlue]

But more interesting news is im seeing that the GFS maybe getting an AI version or the AI- GFS becomes available december 17th, thats going to be very interesting to see how it does along side the euro AIFS

Pumped about this. I watch the euro AI very closely. I feel like It does well a bit further out then the physics models.

[wxman57]

57 has a warm bias in our defense

Warm bias? That's absolutely false. I can occasionally tolerate a temperature below 85F. Below 80, though, that's freezing!

Curious what you keep the tstat on in the house lol

Last night, we turned it down to 69 so the heater would not come on. Window open about 8" to allow fresh air in (with outside air temperature in the upper 50s and falling to 43 near sunrise). After waking, I turned the thermostat to 73 and started a space heater running in my office with the door closed. The little heater on my desk blows warm air on me and eventually gets the room temperature to about 79-80 degrees (it's up to 76 deg after 1 hour with outdoor temp up to 50). In summer, we keep the thermostat at 78 degrees, and the little heater is stored in my closet. We always open the bedroom window at night if the temperature will drop below about 60 degrees. Otherwise, it's too humid in the house. We even opened it about a half inch when the temperature dropped into the lower teens. At 55-60 degrees, we open both sides of the window fully.

As for the weather around Christmas, the GFS has given up on that fantasy Arctic outbreak and ice event for Texas. Only a weak cold front similar to recent fronts, which matches the ECMWF.

[wxman57]

Good grief

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G72ok1lW0AIdEty?format=png&name=medium

I knew we couldn't have a cold December anymore

DFW has not had a below normal December in 12 years. 2013. Not one, and the new averages went up in 2021, which nudged the baseline up and we couldn't even do that.

Houston is running 6.2F below normal this December. You're welcome to take some of our cold up there.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx

Oh, and currently, DFW is running 4.9F below normal for the first 10 days of December:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=fwd

[wxman57]

But more interesting news is im seeing that the GFS maybe getting an AI version or the AI- GFS becomes available december 17th, thats going to be very interesting to see how it does along side the euro AIFS

Pumped about this. I watch the euro AI very closely. I feel like It does well a bit further out then the physics models.

Well, I hope the EC AIFS is right. It currently has temps in the mid to upper 70s on Christmas day from Houston to D-FW. Operational EC has mid 70s across Texas on Christmas. GFS has upper 70s Houston and lower 50s D-FW. However, every single run of the GFS has a completely different solution at both the surface and aloft for Christmas. The GFS can't handle the fast zonal flow. EC and EC-AIFS are doing better.

[Brent]

Now I'm seeing posts about severe weather for Christmas

[wxman57]

Now I'm seeing posts about severe weather for Christmas

Someone must be believing one of the runs of the GFS to think there will be severe weather for Christmas. Compare the GFS and EC 500 mb flow for the evening of the 25th. GFS has a trof approaching TX (severe weather producer), while the EC has a ridge planted right over Texas (no significant weather). Euro has been quite consistent in its forecasts.

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025121106&fh=366

ECMWF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025121100&fh=360

[wxman22]

Quick shot of cold air this weekend up here before things warm up. With low 20’s for lows Saturday night. May be stuck in the 30’s all day Sunday. The Euro AI shows a high of only 34F Sunday here.