Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

4.75” so far here in Wharton today. Everything is flooded.

[bubba hotep]

Man this place went quiet fast!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Not a lot to say, the northern stream was too aggressive and that won't allow our system to amp up any. At H5 it is shallow and fast but it will stay suppressed not allowing any snow to get into the Mid Atlantic (typically, a system that is good for the Mid Atlantic is also good for N. Texas). The runs from just a couple of days ago were more amped up, slower, different jet configuration, stronger low level jet back into the cold air, etc. Tonight we see a faster flatter system with no strong low level jet kicking moisture back into the cold air, which is allowing dry air to filter in faster (see nothing in OKC).

[Brent]

Man this place went quiet fast!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Not a lot to say, the northern stream was too aggressive and that won't allow our system to amp up any. At H5 it is shallow and fast but it will stay suppressed not allowing any snow to get into the Mid Atlantic (typically, a system that is good for the Mid Atlantic is also good for N. Texas). The runs from just a couple of days ago were more amped up, slower, different jet configuration, stronger low level jet back into the cold air, etc. Tonight we see a faster flatter system with no strong low level jet kicking moisture back into the cold air, which is allowing dry air to filter in faster (see nothing in OKC).

at least we were never forecast to see anything frozen, I cant imagine being in OKC that'd be way worse than this.

Personally I never was convinced about DFW seeing anything meaningful and I could see even the optimism about a surprise floating away especially yesterday

I just hope the next storm has more cold air

[Haris]

I'd call this a borderline border line win.

Airport nearing 3.6". Shattered the record. I myself getting near 2.7" . Not bad.

The runs that showed 4-6" + did not verify for Austin but very decent for december regardless!
(Still raining as of 1030)


Now some snow please!

[Quixotic]

The big take away from this is that this is exactly the right type of track to expect from an enso that is ninoesque. The pacific is the problem. We’ve got no cold air to work with. I fully expect that will change as this year looks more like 02-03 rather than 09-10. The low needs to be established in the aleutians pumping a ridge into AK and western Canada. It’s headed that way we just have to be patient. Once it sets up, we will have beaucoup chances.

[Brent]

The big take away from this is that this is exactly the right type of track to expect from an enso that is ninoesque. The pacific is the problem. We’ve got no cold air to work with. I fully expect that will change as this year looks more like 02-03 rather than 09-10. The low needs to be established in the aleutians pumping a ridge into AK and western Canada. It’s headed that way we just have to be patient. Once it sets up, we will have beaucoup chances.

Thats the main thing its only early December not even really winter yet

The only thing i cant get past yet is we said that last year too and still couldn't get a snowstorm

And i know things are different this year and yes we need patience but its hard to keep waiting

[Cerlin]

The big take away from this is that this is exactly the right type of track to expect from an enso that is ninoesque. The pacific is the problem. We’ve got no cold air to work with. I fully expect that will change as this year looks more like 02-03 rather than 09-10. The low needs to be established in the aleutians pumping a ridge into AK and western Canada. It’s headed that way we just have to be patient. Once it sets up, we will have beaucoup chances.

Thats the main thing its only early December not even really winter yet

The only thing i cant get past yet is we said that last year too and still couldn't get a snowstorm

And i know things are different this year and yes we need patience but its hard to keep waiting

Agreed! Whenever we had that dusting in January of 2017, I got NO snow at my house in frisco, so I haven’t seen snow since March of 2015!!! I’ve been waiting almost 4 years now...I forgot what it was like!

[bubba hotep]

Man this place went quiet fast!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Not a lot to say, the northern stream was too aggressive and that won't allow our system to amp up any. At H5 it is shallow and fast but it will stay suppressed not allowing any snow to get into the Mid Atlantic (typically, a system that is good for the Mid Atlantic is also good for N. Texas). The runs from just a couple of days ago were more amped up, slower, different jet configuration, stronger low level jet back into the cold air, etc. Tonight we see a faster flatter system with no strong low level jet kicking moisture back into the cold air, which is allowing dry air to filter in faster (see nothing in OKC).

at least we were never forecast to see anything frozen, I cant imagine being in OKC that'd be way worse than this.

Personally I never was convinced about DFW seeing anything meaningful and I could see even the optimism about a surprise floating away especially yesterday

I just hope the next storm has more cold air

I never expected any snow in DFW (in fact, I was worried I was being too much of a wet blanket in this thread lol) but I was looking forward to the 2 - 4" of rain. Now, if the models had shown what they showed for OKC in DFW and FWD would've gone out with 4-6" for DFW yesterday and we were looking at 0" today... Holy hell would I be done with this winter!

[Brent]

Not a lot to say, the northern stream was too aggressive and that won't allow our system to amp up any. At H5 it is shallow and fast but it will stay suppressed not allowing any snow to get into the Mid Atlantic (typically, a system that is good for the Mid Atlantic is also good for N. Texas). The runs from just a couple of days ago were more amped up, slower, different jet configuration, stronger low level jet back into the cold air, etc. Tonight we see a faster flatter system with no strong low level jet kicking moisture back into the cold air, which is allowing dry air to filter in faster (see nothing in OKC).

at least we were never forecast to see anything frozen, I cant imagine being in OKC that'd be way worse than this.

Personally I never was convinced about DFW seeing anything meaningful and I could see even the optimism about a surprise floating away especially yesterday

I just hope the next storm has more cold air

I never expected any snow in DFW (in fact, I was worried I was being too much of a wet blanket in this thread lol) but I was looking forward to the 2 - 4" of rain. Now, if the models had shown what they showed for OKC in DFW and FWD would've gone out with 4-6" for DFW yesterday and we were looking at 0" today... Holy hell would I be done with this winter!

yup that's exactly why I'm not nearly as annoyed as I was a year ago, like I said, I've seen the writing on the wall for most of the week now and knew the only chance would be a trip north probably(barring a major surprise), but even that has kind of gone up in smoke now lol

[Quixotic]

The big take away from this is that this is exactly the right type of track to expect from an enso that is ninoesque. The pacific is the problem. We’ve got no cold air to work with. I fully expect that will change as this year looks more like 02-03 rather than 09-10. The low needs to be established in the aleutians pumping a ridge into AK and western Canada. It’s headed that way we just have to be patient. Once it sets up, we will have beaucoup chances.

Thats the main thing its only early December not even really winter yet

The only thing i cant get past yet is we said that last year too and still couldn't get a snowstorm

And i know things are different this year and yes we need patience but its hard to keep waiting

Don’t worry. It’s coming. It’s a west based nino. We are going to get chances this year. I promise. If I’m wrong, drinks on me. It’s already headed that way. Watch the epo. It’s going to tank late December or very early January. This positive spike is temporary.

[weatherdude1108]

I've gotten over 3 inches at my place today, and still pitter pattering now as of this post. Nice! I'll check in morning when it's over.

[bubba hotep]

The big take away from this is that this is exactly the right type of track to expect from an enso that is ninoesque. The pacific is the problem. We’ve got no cold air to work with. I fully expect that will change as this year looks more like 02-03 rather than 09-10. The low needs to be established in the aleutians pumping a ridge into AK and western Canada. It’s headed that way we just have to be patient. Once it sets up, we will have beaucoup chances.

Thats the main thing its only early December not even really winter yet

The only thing i cant get past yet is we said that last year too and still couldn't get a snowstorm

And i know things are different this year and yes we need patience but its hard to keep waiting

Don’t worry. It’s coming. It’s a west based nino. We are going to get chances this year. I promise. If I’m wrong, drinks on me. It’s already headed that way. Watch the epo. It’s going to tank late December or very early January. This positive spike is temporary.

I'm holding you to that! But the fact that there was even a system to track in Dec is a win. West based +ENSO really seems to favor the dry & warm Dec, esp early.

[weatherdude1108]

4.75” so far here in Wharton today. Everything is flooded.

Looks like you finally got decent heavy rains down there.

[Brent]

Thats the main thing its only early December not even really winter yet

The only thing i cant get past yet is we said that last year too and still couldn't get a snowstorm

And i know things are different this year and yes we need patience but its hard to keep waiting

Don’t worry. It’s coming. It’s a west based nino. We are going to get chances this year. I promise. If I’m wrong, drinks on me. It’s already headed that way. Watch the epo. It’s going to tank late December or very early January. This positive spike is temporary.

I'm holding you to that! But the fact that there was even a system to track in Dec is a win. West based +ENSO really seems to favor the dry & warm Dec, esp early.

Saving this quote just in case...

But you're right, even to have a storm that's borderline this early is a good thing and I'm still optimistic about what's to come. I just want a winter storm to actually verify

[Cpv17]

4.75” so far here in Wharton today. Everything is flooded.

Looks like you finally got decent heavy rains down there.

Yeah we’ve gone over 5” now in about a 12 hour window. I don’t remember the last time we’ve had that much rain in such little time. Possibly since Harvey, but we had 6.5” from Harvey in just one hour lol that was the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen.

[Ralph's Weather]

40 here this morning and still lightly raining. So far over 2.5" of rain.

[gpsnowman]

40 here this morning and still lightly raining. So far over 2.5" of rain.

More light rain moving close to DFW this morning with the snow line near Wichita Falls. Maybe our Falls members can report some flurry action.

[gboudx]

Not a lot to say, the northern stream was too aggressive and that won't allow our system to amp up any. At H5 it is shallow and fast but it will stay suppressed not allowing any snow to get into the Mid Atlantic (typically, a system that is good for the Mid Atlantic is also good for N. Texas). The runs from just a couple of days ago were more amped up, slower, different jet configuration, stronger low level jet back into the cold air, etc. Tonight we see a faster flatter system with no strong low level jet kicking moisture back into the cold air, which is allowing dry air to filter in faster (see nothing in OKC).

at least we were never forecast to see anything frozen, I cant imagine being in OKC that'd be way worse than this.

Personally I never was convinced about DFW seeing anything meaningful and I could see even the optimism about a surprise floating away especially yesterday

I just hope the next storm has more cold air

I never expected any snow in DFW (in fact, I was worried I was being too much of a wet blanket in this thread lol) but I was looking forward to the 2 - 4" of rain. Now, if the models had shown what they showed for OKC in DFW and FWD would've gone out with 4-6" for DFW yesterday and we were looking at 0" today... Holy hell would I be done with this winter!

Maybe I’m just the Forum cynic, but even if FWD had forecasted what OKC missed, I still wouldn’t have expected it. I really do live by “I’ll believe it when I see it”. What happened to OKC should be a good lesson for this mindset. It’s never a guarantee.

[Portastorm]

If y'all want to see snow, Lubbock is the place to be this morning.

http://its.txdot.gov/ITS_WEB/FrontEnd/default.html?r=LBB&p=Lubbock&t=cctv

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sitting right at 33. It’s trying to switch over with some sleet and snow mixed in.