Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7241 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:18 pm

Okay I can't stop laughing :lol: Anchorage only 3 inches???

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7242 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:24 pm

Interesting... The 0Z GFS now shows a major winterstorm for NW/W Texas next week also.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7243 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:36 pm

0Z CMC & ICON, very good agreement between these models and the GFS considering the range. Of course its a long ways out so anything could happen.But interesting non the less.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7244 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:30 am

Overnight ensembles, especially the GEPS/ EPS, are starting to hint at cross polar flow with a trough setting up shop over the western and central US, SE ridge is definitely their, but pretty good - EPO signatures , cold air is getting pushed south on the GEPS, EPS is similar somewhat
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7245 Postby 869MB » Fri Jan 24, 2025 4:02 am

Stratton23 wrote:Overnight ensembles, especially the GEPS/ EPS, are starting to hint at cross polar flow with a trough setting up shop over the western and central US, SE ridge is definitely their, but pretty good - EPO signatures , cold air is getting pushed south on the GEPS, EPS is similar somewhat


I’ll take a look into them on Friday but from what you’re describing, such a pattern may lead to a fairly significant freezing rain event somewhere across the Central or Southern Plains thereafter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7246 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 24, 2025 8:15 am

Funny enough I think this morning might have been the coldest IMBY this year got down to 15
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7247 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 8:54 am

The 6z GFS sure is interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7248 Postby Sambucol2024 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 9:02 am

Cpv17 wrote:The 6z GFS sure is interesting.

What does it show?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7249 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 9:51 am

Sambucol2024 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 6z GFS sure is interesting.

What does it show?


A ton of rain for us in SE TX and it looks like a blizzard towards the Panhandle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7250 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 24, 2025 10:26 am

There likely isn't cold air around for the next system outside of the panhandle for elevation. Good rain producer though. Overall not a lot to note on the overnight guidance, nothing really sticks out.

It's going to be mid February outside of a cold front here and there before anything significant happens I think, if it does.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7251 Postby Sambucol2024 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 10:57 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Sambucol2024 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 6z GFS sure is interesting.

What does it show?


A ton of rain for us in SE TX and it looks like a blizzard towards the Panhandle.

When is it showing this?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7252 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 24, 2025 11:43 am

Heading to CB for a week starting next week Saturday. I selfishly need -PNA for that week. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7253 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 12:00 pm

Things still looking interesting in NW Texas on the 12z runs

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7254 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 12:50 pm

The 12z Euro is now onboard also.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7255 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:04 pm

These kind of systems have a history of producing heavy trowel snow on the backside of the low, even here in the Wichita Falls area. It’s not uncommon at all to get snow up here from these kind of setups.A couple of the snowfall events of the last few years have happened here from these marginal cold core events.

Regardless of winter precipitation though, I’m getting more concerned that there may be some moderate flooding issues next week for a portion of the state if the trends continue. This storm is very Spring like. Similar to a strong storm you would see in March with thunderstorms in the warm sector, and heavy snow on the backside.
Last edited by wxman22 on Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7256 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:11 pm

Not missing out on snow again might have to make a trip to Amarillo if that looks like it will verify.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7257 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:37 pm

thats a very cold pattern on the EPS/ GEPS
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7258 Postby opticsguy » Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:52 pm

Four nights in the teens this week, plus a couple last week (McKinney). My winter proof kale and collards have died. There is still snow on the ground on the north side of the houses, 15 days after it fell.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7259 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 24, 2025 2:20 pm

Gotwood wrote:Not missing out on snow again might have to make a trip to Amarillo if that looks like it will verify.


Sheesh, just saw the snow totals in the panhandle. Take me with you if you go :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7260 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 24, 2025 3:05 pm

What a battle zone setting up for week 2 early February across the Plains!!...SE ridge vs Negative EPO/WPO. Love to see it if you want strong winter storms in our part of the country to start February. Can tell its a dense low level arctic cold push by the Frz Rain output showing up on most every system ejection week 2

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