Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Thanks y'all! It's been a very informative couple of weeks around here!

I think I'll be buying popcorn and lurking for the upcoming events - as far as I can see all we are forecast to get so far is rain midweek. But I'll be telling my people in DFW to get out and replenish supplies as soon as it's safe!

:popcorn:

Better read this morning's forecast discussion out of EWX ... the "rain" forecast for Austin may be FREEZING rain.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

          ...FEBRUARY BEGINS ON A FRIGID NOTE...

UNLESS YOU LIVE IN A CAVE OR AN IGLOO...YOU ARE PROBABLY AWARE
THAT THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY HAVE BEEN VERY COLD. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF HOUSTON...
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...COLLEGE STATION AND GALVESTON HAVE ALL
AVERAGED ALMOST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE
NORMALS. HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE RECORDED FIVE
CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. THIS HAS
NOT HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY SINCE 1989. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE ALSO
BEEN BRUTALLY COLD WITH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS A
FEW DAYS AGO.

BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE COLDEST AVERAGE HIGH...LOW AND AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY (THROUGH THE 4TH) FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES:

                             HOUSTON

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        36.2 1985            22.2 1951          30.8 1985
        38.5 1996            24.0 2011          32.1 1951
        42.0 1951            25.2 1985          33.0 1996
        42.8 1905            27.5 1996          33.8 2011
        43.5 2011            29.5 1917          39.2 1916


                           HOUSTON HOBBY

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        36.0 1996            20.2 1951          30.9 1951
        39.0 1985            27.0 2011          33.1 1996
        41.5 1951            28.2 1996          34.2 1985
        44.2 2011            29.5 1985          35.6 2011
        47.0 1978            32.0 1966          42.0 1980

                          COLLEGE STATION

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        32.5 1985            15.8 1951          27.0 1985
        35.0 1996            21.2 2011          29.4 1996
        42.0 2011            21.8 1985          29.5 1951
        42.8 1951            23.8 1996          31.6 2011
        42.8 1905            26.0 1918          37.3 1916

                             GALVESTON

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        38.0 1985            26.8 1951          34.0 1985
        39.2 1996            28.5 2011          34.2 1951
        41.8 1951            30.0 1985          35.0 1996
        42.0 2011            30.8 1996          35.2 2011
        45.8 1978            34.2 1917          42.2 1905

EACH OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR 2ND COLDEST AVERAGE
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF THE MONTH. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE 20S. DON`T LET THE COLD START TO THE MONTH FOOL YOU. BACK IN
1996...THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY WERE COLD BUT AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER TEXAS ON THE 21ST...22ND AND 23RD WITH
COLLEGE STATION RECORDING A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES
ON THE 21ST AND HOUSTON RECORDING A RECORD HIGH OF 90 ON THE 22ND.
AHHHH WEATHER...YOU JUST NEVER KNOW.

$$



[txagwxman]

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

          ...FEBRUARY BEGINS ON A FRIGID NOTE...

UNLESS YOU LIVE IN A CAVE OR AN IGLOO...YOU ARE PROBABLY AWARE
THAT THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY HAVE BEEN VERY COLD. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF HOUSTON...
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...COLLEGE STATION AND GALVESTON HAVE ALL
AVERAGED ALMOST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE
NORMALS. HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE RECORDED FIVE
CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. THIS HAS
NOT HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY SINCE 1989. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE ALSO
BEEN BRUTALLY COLD WITH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS A
FEW DAYS AGO.

BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE COLDEST AVERAGE HIGH...LOW AND AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY (THROUGH THE 4TH) FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES:

                             HOUSTON

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        36.2 1985            22.2 1951          30.8 1985
        38.5 1996            24.0 2011          32.1 1951
        42.0 1951            25.2 1985          33.0 1996
        42.8 1905            27.5 1996          33.8 2011
        43.5 2011            29.5 1917          39.2 1916


                           HOUSTON HOBBY

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        36.0 1996            20.2 1951          30.9 1951
        39.0 1985            27.0 2011          33.1 1996
        41.5 1951            28.2 1996          34.2 1985
        44.2 2011            29.5 1985          35.6 2011
        47.0 1978            32.0 1966          42.0 1980

                          COLLEGE STATION

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        32.5 1985            15.8 1951          27.0 1985
        35.0 1996            21.2 2011          29.4 1996
        42.0 2011            21.8 1985          29.5 1951
        42.8 1951            23.8 1996          31.6 2011
        42.8 1905            26.0 1918          37.3 1916

                             GALVESTON

        AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

        38.0 1985            26.8 1951          34.0 1985
        39.2 1996            28.5 2011          34.2 1951
        41.8 1951            30.0 1985          35.0 1996
        42.0 2011            30.8 1996          35.2 2011
        45.8 1978            34.2 1917          42.2 1905

EACH OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR 2ND COLDEST AVERAGE
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF THE MONTH. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE 20S. DON`T LET THE COLD START TO THE MONTH FOOL YOU. BACK IN
1996...THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY WERE COLD BUT AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER TEXAS ON THE 21ST...22ND AND 23RD WITH
COLLEGE STATION RECORDING A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES
ON THE 21ST AND HOUSTON RECORDING A RECORD HIGH OF 90 ON THE 22ND.
AHHHH WEATHER...YOU JUST NEVER KNOW.

$$



My Dad told me when I was little about the Feb 1951 blast...it was BRUTAL.

[txagwxman]

20F Hooks this morning, 20.8F here.

And IAH couldn't break the record--24F there...man made urban warming keeps messing up that therm.

[txagwxman]

Just looking (glancing) at Wednesday...but is that sleet/fz rain for NW Houston after the front passes?

[srainhoutx]

My Dad told me when I was little about the Feb 1951 blast...it was BRUTAL.

Yeah. My Mom and I were discussing 51 yesterday. Her memory is still clear on those late 40's snow events in Houston as well. I'll be scanning some old photos of me in Feb 1960 event and of my Mom in the late 40's events in the near future to share.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS meteogram (and Euro) suggest another snow storm for Dallas area Wednesday. Precip starting as sleet and changing to snow. Could be a good bit:



For Houston, though, just a few hundreths of precip once temps drop below 32 and quite warm 850mb temps, so more freezing drizzle/rain:

[wall_cloud]

A look at the soundings at LCH/CRP points out the obvious reasons why ice was observed and not snow. Initially, the column was saturate at LCH through a very deep layer. However, looking at the CRP 00z sounding shows drying in the mid/upper levels. This drying in the -12 to -18 C layer result in an absence of dendrites (ice crystals) which means you don't see much, if any, snow. Both soundings showed warm layers aloft which would preclude snow despite the presence of any dendrites. The models typically underforecast the strength of the warm nose. Very common model error.

And having to extrapolate over HOU doesn't help. I really with they would add upper air to the HGX office.

you are right. Don't take my post wrong either. It wasn't a criticism but more of a hindsight look back at what occurred. That is very difficult in near real time.

[DentonGal]

Does Wednesday's system have the prolonged cold with it like this last one did?

[txagwxman]

Does Wednesday's system have the prolonged cold with it like this last one did?

No should warm quickly next weekend.

[txagwxman]

6Z GFS meteogram (and Euro) suggest another snow storm for Dallas area Wednesday. Precip starting as sleet and changing to snow. Could be a good bit:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dfwgfs6zfeb5.gif

For Houston, though, just a few hundreths of precip once temps drop below 32 and quite warm 850mb temps, so more freezing drizzle/rain:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs6zfeb5.gif

GFS may underestimate the speed of this front as it usual does.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

6Z GFS meteogram (and Euro) suggest another snow storm for Dallas area Wednesday. Precip starting as sleet and changing to snow. Could be a good bit:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dfwgfs6zfeb5.gif

For Houston, though, just a few hundreths of precip once temps drop below 32 and quite warm 850mb temps, so more freezing drizzle/rain:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs6zfeb5.gif

GFS may underestimate the speed of this front as it usual does.

What are your thoughts on tomorrow's system for DFW north?

[txagwxman]

I really would have like to diagnose everything prior to the event but I was out of town at a conference for the week. Just got home this evening.

NAM busted on the warm tongue, even on the 18z run. GFS had it nailed on the 18z run. RUC also had it on the 18z runs.

We just need a sounding over Houston...

[wxman57]

What are your thoughts on tomorrow's system for DFW north?

There doesn't appear to be much moisture available tomorrow. As the local NWS office says - very light accumulations possible.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What are your thoughts on tomorrow's system for DFW north?

There doesn't appear to be much moisture available tomorrow. As the local NWS office says - very light accumulations possible.

Okay, thank you!
We will find out what mother nature's plans are for the Super Bowl tomorrow.

[vbhoutex]

I really would have like to diagnose everything prior to the event but I was out of town at a conference for the week. Just got home this evening.

NAM busted on the warm tongue, even on the 18z run. GFS had it nailed on the 18z run. RUC also had it on the 18z runs.

We just need a sounding over Houston...

Even Tim Heller at CH 13 talked about the need for soundings here. He said it was part of the reason for the bust. As you state though, and Larry Cosgrove pointed out to me and Kelly, GFS and RUC showed it without the soundings so it can't all be put to the lack of soundings. I do think that anyone that knows weather would agree that we do need those soundings to really make for better forecasting for SE TX and the Gulf Coast. Now the question is what is the next week going to bring us? We're already hearing winter precip possible from some of the local OCMs.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS suggests substantial measurable snow for Dallas-Texarkana and OKC Weds/Thurs.

[Tejas89]

And we are officially above freezing at DFW.

[Metalicwx220]

12z GFS suggests substantial measurable snow for Dallas-Texarkana and OKC Weds/Thurs.

[wxman22]

12z GFS shows another snow event for DFW, and a icing event for Austin and College Station , looks to be a close call for places like Houston and San Antonio, in San Antonio it has temps hovering at about 33 F with .14 qpfs, and in Houston it has over .30 qpfs with temperatures hovering in the low 30s, just above freezing...If the GFS is just slightly underestimating the push of the cold air it could make a major difference between just a cold rain or another ice storm....