Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Definitely been an uptick in chatter regarding the mentioned period above. Feb looking better for sure.

[Charleswachal]

wondering if we are going to get an early start to severe season down in SE texas

[cstrunk]

QPF signal is strong and increasing even for central/south/west Texas, where they need it. Unfortunately it's increasing in eastern Texas where we don't really need it. I agree that the eastern half of the state may be dealing with some flooding issues in the coming weeks.

[Charleswachal]

QPF signal is strong and increasing even for central/south/west Texas, where they need it. Unfortunately it's increasing in eastern Texas where we don't really need it. I agree that the eastern half of the state may be dealing with some flooding issues in the coming weeks.

GFS shows 10 to 12 inches of rain for the Houston metro area. That will lead to significant flooding for sure

[Tammie]

EPO says hold my beer…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188292809 ... J0be-HnN-w

[rwfromkansas]

Driving up to Kansas for my rescheduled family holiday from the early January blizzard and lots of snow on the ground still. Nice!

Frozen ponds.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles are definitely starting to burst the dam with arctic air the first week of February, i dont want to come off sounding alarming or anything, but the kind of 500 mb setup im seeing on ensembles could really unload frigid air ( potentially colder than our last dump of arctic air) of course we just continue to watch how this evolves over the next week or so, but the trend is definitely getting much colder again

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are definitely starting to burst the dam with arctic air the first week of February, i dont want to come off sounding alarming or anything, but the kind of 500 mb setup im seeing on ensembles could really unload frigid air ( potentially colder than our last dump of arctic air) of course we just continue to watch how this evolves over the next week or so, but the trend is definitely getting much colder again

This is the best news I’ve heard all day along with the Texans firing their OC and both OL coaches.

[txtwister78]

Good news is its still in the 10–12-day range, so it gives us plenty of time to watch trends but for today at least, models have gone with a colder look but that could still change just as they had us looking warmer several days ago.

[Cpv17]

Good news is its still in the 10–12-day range, so it gives us plenty of time to watch trends but for today at least, models have gone with a colder look but that could still change just as they had us looking warmer several days ago.

I’m not confident enough yet to put my signature on it that’s for sure, but it does look to be going in a positive direction if you want cold. I normally let all of my friends and family know 1-2 weeks ahead of time when I feel confident about it, but I’m just not there yet with this one.

[txtwister78]

Good news is its still in the 10–12-day range, so it gives us plenty of time to watch trends but for today at least, models have gone with a colder look but that could still change just as they had us looking warmer several days ago.

I’m not confident enough yet to put my signature on it that’s for sure, but it does look to be going in a positive direction if you want cold. I normally let all of my friends and family know 1-2 weeks ahead of time when I feel confident about it, but I’m just not there yet.

Yeah when it's still 300 hours out we shouldn't be confident at that range really. That's not to say there aren't some signals out there outside of just a few models runs pointing to a potential return of cold weather but those same signals could very well reverse in a few days so right now best to wait for some consistency from ensembles/teleconnection trends and once that occurs, then we can probably begin to have a little more confidence next week.

[Stratton23]

Its also looking like the MJO is going to skip the warm phases and potentially head back toward phase 8 and 1, that’s interesting

[Cpv17]

Its also looking like the MJO is going to skip the warm phases and potentially head back toward phase 8 and 1, that’s interesting

Yeah, I just saw something about this as well.

[txtwister78]

Its also looking like the MJO is going to skip the warm phases and potentially head back toward phase 8 and 1, that’s interesting

Yeah that could have ramifications for later into February but as it looks right now it's definitely not amplifying into the warmer phases that some models had shown a week ago. The analogs for February after a cold January may have some merit if that trend continues.

[bubba hotep]

Just think if that was all snow!

[wxman22]

0Z ICON

[Brent]

TWC is really cold around February 5-6th here wow

Granted it's just an app but to be that cold that far out is crazy

[Cpv17]

TWC is really cold around February 5-6th here wow

Granted it's just an app but to be that cold that far out is crazy

What’s it showing for you?

[Brent]

TWC is really cold around February 5-6th here wow

Granted it's just an app but to be that cold that far out is crazy

What’s it showing for you?

Highs in the 30s. I don't think it's ever shown that beyond 10 days out this winter. it usually leans more toward climo and then trends colder if it's legit

The EPS definitely shows it too same thing there it usually isn't that extreme at the end of the run basically

[txtwister78]

Watching the potential for some severe weather late next week across SC TX. Euro looked similar as well on the 12z run. Above all, much needed rain hopefully on the way.