Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

The GEFS/ GEPS ensembles are trending toward a more neutral AO in early februrary , its currently positive but does look like it will be weakening from positive to closer to neutral going into the later half of the first week of february, good step in the right direction

[txtwister78]

The GEFS/ GEPS ensembles are trending toward a more neutral AO in early februrary , its currently positive but does look like it will be weakening from positive to closer to neutral going into the later half of the first week of february, good step in the right direction

Correct, which is why down here it's going to be a more volatile/complex model watch and potentially model busting (forecasted warmer Feb to something much colder) depending how that all plays out versus the Midwest where the cold tap won't be much of an issue courtesy of the EPO.

[kassi]

I can't believe how long some of the snow lasted in Beaumont. Our snowman finally saw its demise sometime late yesterday. He shrunk a little each day, but survived until Saturday! Insane! I was shocked every day how much snow was still around. On Friday, Walmart still had humongous piles everywhere. Early Saturday, I saw many snowmen (obviously not of their former selves) and snow still on the ground in many yards. I have never seen anything frozen last that long in Beaumont. Crazy stuff!

[Brent]

I can't believe how long some of the snow lasted in Beaumont. Our snowman finally saw its demise sometime late yesterday. He shrunk a little each day, but survived until Saturday! Insane! I was shocked every day how much snow was still around. On Friday, Walmart still had humongous piles everywhere. Early Saturday, I saw many snowmen (obviously not of their former selves) and snow still on the ground in many yards. I have never seen anything frozen last that long in Beaumont. Crazy stuff!

Truly a once in a lifetime storm down there.. people decades from now will talk about it

[Cpv17]

I can't believe how long some of the snow lasted in Beaumont. Our snowman finally saw its demise sometime late yesterday. He shrunk a little each day, but survived until Saturday! Insane! I was shocked every day how much snow was still around. On Friday, Walmart still had humongous piles everywhere. Early Saturday, I saw many snowmen (obviously not of their former selves) and snow still on the ground in many yards. I have never seen anything frozen last that long in Beaumont. Crazy stuff!

For me it’s really sad seeing all the snow melt away.

[Stratton23]

Just for the fun of it, im gonna just throw out a wacky prediction and say we get a major winter storm that will bring more snow/ice to the state sometime between feb 5-15th, no harm in trying to guess haha! I remember in 2017 we had 3 snow events, so its not impossible that we cant get another winter weather event for texas and the deep sourh

[Brent]

I saw a few snow flurries this afternoon with the sun out

[Sambucol2024]

Just for the fun of it, im gonna just throw out a wacky prediction and say we get a major winter storm that will bring more snow/ice to the state sometime between feb 5-15th, no harm in trying to guess haha! I remember in 2017 we had 3 snow events, so its not impossible that we cant get another winter weather event for texas and the deep sourh

I feel like most of Texas will get an ice storm before February is over.

[gpsnowman]

Smoking some ribs for the Super Bowl February 9. Thats right around the time frame of the next potential cold wave. My R2D2 smoker does not perform well in the cold sometimes but if snow is involved I would have no problem baking them in the oven. Go Chiefs!!!

[opticsguy]

I can't believe how long some of the snow lasted in Beaumont. Our snowman finally saw its demise sometime late yesterday. He shrunk a little each day, but survived until Saturday! Insane! I was shocked every day how much snow was still around. On Friday, Walmart still had humongous piles everywhere. Early Saturday, I saw many snowmen (obviously not of their former selves) and snow still on the ground in many yards. I have never seen anything frozen last that long in Beaumont. Crazy stuff!

There are still two piles of snow (in the shade) surviving from the 9th. (North of McKinney). Snow from the 2010 storm was gone in 2 days

[rwfromkansas]

Got back last night from the quick rescheduled Christmas at my family in Kansas due to their blizzard. And it was amazing how much snow was still on the ground AND roads. I was shocked. My hometown only got a little from the later rounds that hit southern KS more. Luckily there were still some grass patches of our dogs, who loved running around in (really on top) of the snow.

It has been so cold up there, the ground must be protecting snow from melting, even with temps in the mid-30s to around 40. Even the icy patches on the driveway next door refused to melt during the day despite temps above freezing. It was something I have never seen, even growing up there. The snow just didn't melt much despite warming up. The top layer of the snow was also hard. You could literally step on top of 10 inch drift areas and your foot would barely go in if at all. So strange! Really fascinating event. Shows how different things can be with a bitter cold spell.

I hope we can get some here IMBY again....

[Ntxw]

It's been pretty cool to see everyone note the staying power of the snow. It helps that overall January has been consistently below normal for much of the US. There are other factors, but it helps not to be 2-3 days of cold and 4-5 days well above normal for the snow to stay. Also it tends to have staying power in December and January.

Cold air will try to push at the lower levels post Feb 5th. Between the 8th and 12th there possibly could be systems to pull a little more and be of note. The further south and east you are the harder it will be for the cold air to make it. AO remains largely positive, NAO consistently positive, PNA is neutral to slightly negative. It will be hard to get cold into the northern gulf in that kind of teleconnection pattern.

[Ntxw]

If we're looking for an analog (it's the one showing up) is February 1989. Starts as Aleutian ridge with very similar teleconnections noted above. It was a shallow air mass and there was definitely some kind of ice storm in there. It was a brief but sharp cold snap, though we're not going to see the 1078mb (record) up in Alaska and Canada. That would be the ceiling if using analogs.





MJO not perfect but decent match as well.

[txtwister78]

Ensembles continue to delay cold further south in the long range (such as it is). Warmth trying to hold on a little longer. 80's looking more likely by the weekend into next week. Severe weather threats this week across WC & Central TX. A lot to track at least.

[Stratton23]

80’s? Heck to the no! Looks like ill be cranking my AC all the way down to 60 degrees for the foreseeable future,

[txtwister78]

I love it! January was cold overall. Nothing wrong with a little early Spring and a chance to cash in on some rain as well across areas that need it.

[Stratton23]

I wouldn’t mind the warmth if it didnt come with the mosquitoes and humidity , looks like ill be setting the up stairs AC here to a more alaskan like feeling!

[GunnySgtGandalf]

What are thoughts about potential for severe weather mid-week?

[txtwister78]

What are thoughts about potential for severe weather mid-week?

Right now, greatest threat exists over West Central Texas Wednesday evening extending into Central/SC TX Thursday morning into early afternoon per SPC. Hail and wind threat possible. Good news is tornado threat for now looks to be low.

[Quixotic]

February and March 1989 both had surprise sleet/snow storms. Did some great sledding.