Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold air buildup shown in Canada on the GFS is impressive to say the least. I would find it very hard to believe that we would not (at the minimum) see at least a small piece of that get shunted southward toward the southern plains at some point. This whole setup continues to look like it has real potential IMO.

[Ntxw]

12z ECMWF has cold air coming through at 144 hours crossing Texas with a winter storm up in Oklahoma and Kansas.

[txagwxman]

That is an ice/snow storm on that panel.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man, the GFS has ALOT of cold up in Canada at around 156 and beyond. 1058 mb high near siberia

[Ntxw]

There is a lot of cold air as you said building and a set up prime for cross polar flow which hasn't truly happened so far this winter. Even at a minimum I find it extremely difficult to believe that it won't come barreling down. Much of the country is already socked in cold with Canada being above normal for some time. Shift that idea up in Canada to a cold regime and you have yourself trouble.

[Portastorm]

I wish we had access to a finer grid model of the UKMET. While I'm excited to see txagwxman refer to an ice/snow storm per that model, I'd like to know (for selfish reasons!) how far south that frozen precip threat might extend.

BTW, I agree with the other posts above ... Euro and Canadian and UKMet (three of the four top scoring models this winter) all show some kind of cold air dump early next week. GFS is out to lunch.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

I wish we had access to a finer grid model of the UKMET. While I'm excited to see txagwxman refer to an ice/snow storm per that model, I'd like to know (for selfish reasons!) how far south that frozen precip threat might extend.

BTW, I agree with the other posts above ... Euro and Canadian and UKMet (three of the four top scoring models this winter) all show some kind of cold air dump early next week. GFS is out to lunch.

Even the Japanese and NOGAPS models are on board for early next week. I think the time frame to watch out for, at least in Texas, is after the storm Sunday and Monday. The cold air should become more established across the eastern 2/3rd's of the country by then.

[jasons2k]

I was hoping this current blast would be the last real cold for the winter. I skated by last night without wrapping anything, but I think I may need to tonight.

If the cold next week materializes, maybe that will be the last hard freeze threat. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet but at least it is now closing-in on March. The meteorological spring can't get here fast enough for me.

[Nederlander]

I was hoping this current blast would be the last real cold for the winter. I skated by last night without wrapping anything, but I think I may need to tonight.

If the cold next week materializes, maybe that will be the last hard freeze threat. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet but at least it is now closing-in on March. The meteorological spring can't get here fast enough for me.

I agree with you there.. while i would love to see another snow event in southeast texas, its a little depressing sitting here hoping and hoping, but with each passing storm, nothing happens. I would rather move on to spring weather if the cold we see down here is dry cold..if its below freezing, its dry.. if its low to mid thirties, we get soaked in rain.. just doesnt seem fair

[srainhoutx]

I was hoping this current blast would be the last real cold for the winter. I skated by last night without wrapping anything, but I think I may need to tonight.

If the cold next week materializes, maybe that will be the last hard freeze threat. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet but at least it is now closing-in on March. The meteorological spring can't get here fast enough for me.

Me too Jason. Just cut the dead frawns off the 15 ft Pygmy Date Palm in the back yard by the pool. Still have a some green shoots in the top center thankfully. Also did my Crepe Mrytle pruning as well. I did have to cut down my Haas Avocado that I started from a seed 3 years ago.

[attallaman]

GFS ensembles are not as cold next week...
BUT was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

When the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[jasons2k]

Me too Jason. Just cut the dead frawns off the 15 ft Pygmy Date Palm in the back yard by the pool. Still have a some green shoots in the top center thankfully. Also did my Crepe Mrytle pruning as well. I did have to cut down my Haas Avocado that I started from a seed 3 years ago.

I'm sorry to hear about your avocado. I'm not touching anything until we get thru February (at least). The dead fronds offer extra insulation...

I usually prune March 1st but I might wait a bit longer this winter, especially with Jeff saying we may have some freeze threats into March.

[gboudx]

GFS ensembles are not as cold next week...
BUT was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

When the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Ever see Animal House?

[srainhoutx]

Me too Jason. Just cut the dead frawns off the 15 ft Pygmy Date Palm in the back yard by the pool. Still have a some green shoots in the top center thankfully. Also did my Crepe Mrytle pruning as well. I did have to cut down my Haas Avocado that I started from a seed 3 years ago.

I'm sorry to hear about your avocado. I'm not touching anything until we get thru February (at least). The dead fronds offer extra insulation...

I usually prune March 1st but I might wait a bit longer this winter, especially with Jeff saying we may have some freeze threats into March.

Sort of wanted to wait as well, but our schedule is so full that today needed to be the day. At least I'll be able to wrap the Palm if needed. Getting ready to change the garden around anyway, so time for a fresh start. It does seem that we will have some late freeze threats for SE TX this year.

[Weatherdude20]

GFS ensembles are not as cold next week...
BUT was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

When the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Its a joke !

[Portastorm]

This has to be the "line of the day" from any AFD out of a NWSFO. This one comes courtesy of the Houston/Galveston office from their afternoon AFD just issued:

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PORTION YET AS WE`D PROBABLY JUST BE SWATTING AT FLIES THIS FAR OUT. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A COUPLE OF MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

[Weatherdude20]

[Ntxw]

This is my final call regarding to the effect of the last winter storm in north Texas. Oncor (Electric company responsible for power lines etc) stated that the snowstorm effecting North Texas was the fourth worst storm in it's history regarding disruption of power and damage. It was also the worst winter storm (compared to the numerous ice storms it's had to deal with in the area in past times). This is a far cry from the delightful, harmless an inch to two inches situation (perhaps it was road wise) but it had a far reaching effect than just that. That's really saying something giving the type of severe weather (derecho's, supercells) that north Texas sees quite often yearly. With all of the tools given to the NWS they didn't do a good job regarding that storm.

02.15.10
Oncor Restores Power to Majority of Customers Affected by Winter Storm
oncor -

Oncor completed restoration to all customers affected by the winter storm tonight, closing a historic chapter in the company’s storm restoration history. The February 2010 storm will go down in the record books as the fourth worst storm in Oncor’s history and the worst winter storm ever. With 500,000 plus customers affected, the storm presented many challenges, including the impact of heavy snowfall on trees and hazardous working and travel conditions. Some isolated outages remain and will be restored before midnight. Please contact Oncor’s toll-free number, 1-888-313-4747, if your power is still out after midnight.

Latest 18z GFS. Has a double hit storm similar to what JB has thought. Hope it's a good trend that it's deciding not to hold back the cold air.

144hr



150hr

[txagwxman]

18z has a little bit of something next Tue N. TX.

[msstateguy83]

iam NOT trying to over hype anything at all just state my strong feelings i think the ok/n.tx region is in for another
historic bout of weather within the next 6-14 days... just looking at the models pretty good agreement of back to
active pattern next wk looking @ the latest 18z gfs it even seems to be starting to get on board now, also looking
to be getting more of the srn track w/the jet by earlyer next wk.. i would almost bet areas from i-40 in ok south
to i-20 near the metroplex get another historic snow storm in this coming peroid. also if the air up in canada which
is showing up about 5-6 days out makes it down south like i suspect we could see some record breaking cold temps
which we have not seen in quite sometime. stay tuned the never dull winter 09/10 continues

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