Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

For those in the DFW area, To illustrate our frustration levels with facts...this is the longest stretch of almost no measurable snowfall going back over 75 years to 1942-1945. Man, I hope February can deliver

Dang that's sad

[Ntxw]

Euro locks everything with no HP. Quite a showdown setting up

[stormlover2013]

No showdown.

[northjaxpro]

Well, Ntxw, considering the overall large scale pattern and how that has evolved this winter, the GFS has performed quite well since the start of December '17. I would bank still with the GFS .

[Ntxw]

No showdown.

Please eloborate. Your post does not include any information.

As a thread warning, posts as such may be deleted as it applies to rule #14 on Storm2k guidelines and rules. I suggest refreshing them.

[stormlover2013]

Models have only been good 2 days out with winter weather, we are over 5 days away!!

[bubba hotep]

Ugly 5 day avg to end the 12z Euro run...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Well, Ntxw, considering the overall large scale pattern and how that has evolved this winter, the GFS has performed quite well since the start of December '17. I would bank still with the GFS .

It will be interesting for sure given this will be the second time this winter the two models have such extreme divergence northjaxpro. We'll have to see the coming days as to how the players appear. As always the Pacific is the tough part

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, Ntxw, considering the overall large scale pattern and how that has evolved this winter, the GFS has performed quite well since the start of December '17. I would bank still with the GFS .

It will be interesting for sure given this will be the second time this winter the two models have such extreme divergence northjaxpro. We'll have to see the coming days as to how the players appear. As always the Pacific is the tough part

Yes. I agree. But, it looks like the PNA is going to stay positive with the AO staying negative well into February. The GFS has handled this better than EURO to this juncture this winter in terms of the larger scale pattern for North America and the temperatures. EURO did a little better with the moisture for the last Deep South winter storm a few weeks ago. GFS was a tad slower with bringing moisture back in the picture with that system.

K

[hamburgerman7070]

Does anyone know why the big discrepancy in the models? I know the euro lost the -epo. Not sure why that is happening.

[Cpv17]

This is just my opinion, but I believe the GFS will start to back off on the cold air for late next weekend/early next week. I still believe there will be a pretty potent front coming through and I actually believe the temps that the GFS is showing right now could be pretty accurate. I’m saying this because usually as we get in between the 150-200 hour range on the GFS it starts warming up with each passing run. Small increments each time. Then as we get within one or two days it will slowly start correcting itself. This has been the case with the GFS every time so far this winter that I can remember anyway when it’s forecasting an Artic front. I actually don’t think you can shave off 5-10 degrees with what it’s showing right now like a lot of you suggest. I believe that will come into play around Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. That is if it’s actually still saying a front will be coming.

[Ntxw]

This is just my opinion, but I believe the GFS will start to back off on the cold air for late next weekend/early next week. I still believe there will be a pretty potent front coming through and I actually believe the temps that the GFS is showing right now could be pretty accurate. I’m saying this because usually as we get in between the 150-200 hour range on the GFS it starts warming up with each passing run. Small increments each time. Then as we get within one or two days it will slowly start correcting itself. This has been the case with the GFS every time so far this winter that I can remember anyway when it’s forecasting an Artic front. I actually don’t think you can shave off 5-10 degrees with what it’s showing right now like a lot of you suggest. I believe that will come into play around Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. That is if it’s actually still saying a front will be coming.

Shaving off 5-10 degrees mostly applies to within 24-48hrs. Not because it is right or wrong depicting cold, but there is a systematic problem of it being off by that many in real time. It was 13F at DFW a couple weeks ago and it initialized at 22-24F. This has occured in nearly every cold snap this winter at DFW.

You don't even have to look far. 0z GFS had DFW this morning at 44. It was 37 and you can go back everyday this week and find samples.

[Cpv17]

This is just my opinion, but I believe the GFS will start to back off on the cold air for late next weekend/early next week. I still believe there will be a pretty potent front coming through and I actually believe the temps that the GFS is showing right now could be pretty accurate. I’m saying this because usually as we get in between the 150-200 hour range on the GFS it starts warming up with each passing run. Small increments each time. Then as we get within one or two days it will slowly start correcting itself. This has been the case with the GFS every time so far this winter that I can remember anyway when it’s forecasting an Artic front. I actually don’t think you can shave off 5-10 degrees with what it’s showing right now like a lot of you suggest. I believe that will come into play around Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. That is if it’s actually still saying a front will be coming.

Shaving off 5-10 degrees mostly applies to within 24-48hrs. Not because it is right or wrong depicting cold, but there is a systematic problem of it being off by that many in real time. It was 13F at DFW a couple weeks ago and it initialized at 22-24F. This has occured in nearly cold snap this winter at DFW.

I’m pretty sure you know what I’m talking about though. So tell me what’s causing that? You know way more than I do

[orangeblood]

Ugly 5 day avg to end the 12z Euro run...

Really ugly, there appears to be a weakness in the -EPO/ridge in the Gulf of Alaska...this consequently doesn't allow a strong enough push south of the Arctic HPs/keeping the cold air bottled up to the north. Latest Euro matches up with the GEFS and Canadian, GFS Op appears to be the outlier...no Bueno!

[Ntxw]

This is just my opinion, but I believe the GFS will start to back off on the cold air for late next weekend/early next week. I still believe there will be a pretty potent front coming through and I actually believe the temps that the GFS is showing right now could be pretty accurate. I’m saying this because usually as we get in between the 150-200 hour range on the GFS it starts warming up with each passing run. Small increments each time. Then as we get within one or two days it will slowly start correcting itself. This has been the case with the GFS every time so far this winter that I can remember anyway when it’s forecasting an Artic front. I actually don’t think you can shave off 5-10 degrees with what it’s showing right now like a lot of you suggest. I believe that will come into play around Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. That is if it’s actually still saying a front will be coming.

Shaving off 5-10 degrees mostly applies to within 24-48hrs. Not because it is right or wrong depicting cold, but there is a systematic problem of it being off by that many in real time. It was 13F at DFW a couple weeks ago and it initialized at 22-24F. This has occured in nearly cold snap this winter at DFW.

I’m pretty sure you know what I’m talking about though. So tell me what’s causing that? You know way more than I do

That is a good question I have been trying to solve all winter. It's done well with warmer days and highs. But suffered greatly with radiational cooling. Orangeblood is right saying before you can't expect globals to get that right all the time looking at small scales but it is a recurring problem even broadly when cold air moves in.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ugly 5 day avg to end the 12z Euro run...

Really ugly, there appears to be a weakness in the -EPO/ridge in the Gulf of Alaska...this consequently doesn't allow a strong enough push south of the Arctic HPs/keeping the cold air bottled up to the north. Latest Euro matches up with the GEFS and Canadian, GFS Op appears to be the outlier...no Bueno!

Orangeblood, do u have any ideas what's going on? Cold looks to be delayed but maybe not denied.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS Op is really all on its own right now. Euro, Canadian, the Ensembles are much different than the GFS Op. Not good for winter weather lovers here in TX.

[bubba hotep]

The end of the 12z EPS has a flat extended Pacific jet that will flood the US with Pacific air. We need a big system to move off of Asia to buckle the jet or that might be it for winter. The lag time from flat extended Pacific jet to a more favorable pattern can be 10-15 days and that is pushing us into March. It's just one run but not seeing anything encouraging across the ensembles right now.

[TexasF6]

Bastardi still saying it is coming, so therefore, it is coming. More snow for Austin!!! Cold S. Pacific he says, not a warm Arctic causes the air to spill our way? Wxman57? I trust you more than Bastardi anyday.

[Cpv17]

GFS Op is really all on its own right now. Euro, Canadian, the Ensembles are much different than the GFS Op. Not good for winter weather lovers here in TX.

So much for all the February hype then