Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

Winter 2.0 returns, arguably the best cross polar flow look we've had all winter!!!

[TomballEd]

GEFS suggests the cold air stays near the Canadian border. Houston stays in/near above normal heights the entire 16 day period.

[HockeyTx82]

GEFS suggests the cold air stays near the Canadian border. Houston stays in/near above normal heights the entire 16 day period.

At ths point I'm trusting them more then any model.

https://www.noaa.gov/heritage/stories/g ... groundhogs

[snownado]

You folks wanting more snow and Arctic are are out of luck. My new work crew of expert masons have significantly reinforced the Canadian and Red River walls as part of my "Make America Warm Again" project. I see nothing too exciting in the latest models. Just normal winter weather.

Good to hear!

[Stratton23]

It is worth noting that the EPS/ GEPS guidance did way better than the GFS/GEFS with our last round of arctic air, so id give them a little more weight than usual in this pattern , even cosgrove said the Euro guidance has generally performed better overall this winter

[Portastorm]

Could be seeing some strong storms here in the Austin area late Wednesday into early Thursday, although NWS Austin/San Antonio believes the more significant threat lies to our northeast/east. This is a snippet from their morning AFD:

Elevated convection just ahead of the front could be strong to
marginally severe with possible large hail. The potential for more
robust surface-based convection is limited but if occurs, those
chances are better to the northeast and east of the local area. Any
of these strong storms to marginally severe have the potential to
produce heavy rain. Storm totals range from half an inch to one inch
along and east of a Rocksprings to San Antonio to Hallesttsville
line. Areas west of that line are forecast to get from a few
hundredths to a bit more than four tenths of an inch.

Frankly, I am very excited about the prospects of 1" of rain for us. That would be fabulous!

[snownado]

Could be seeing some strong storms here in the Austin area late Wednesday into early Thursday, although NWS Austin/San Antonio believes the more significant threat lies to our northeast/east. This is a snippet from their morning AFD:

Elevated convection just ahead of the front could be strong to
marginally severe with possible large hail. The potential for more
robust surface-based convection is limited but if occurs, those
chances are better to the northeast and east of the local area. Any
of these strong storms to marginally severe have the potential to
produce heavy rain. Storm totals range from half an inch to one inch
along and east of a Rocksprings to San Antonio to Hallesttsville
line. Areas west of that line are forecast to get from a few
hundredths to a bit more than four tenths of an inch.

Frankly, I am very excited about the prospects of 1" of rain for us. That would be fabulous!

It is a decent setup for at least elevated / non-severe hailers though (including up here in DFW).

[rwfromkansas]

Winter 2.0 returns, arguably the best cross polar flow look we've had all winter!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738022400/1739318400-3rng1KjjFOU.png

And it's only at hour 360.

[Harp.1]

For what it’s worth, the CMC is bringing down the cold at the end of its run….

[wxman57]

Winter 2.0 returns, arguably the best cross polar flow look we've had all winter!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738022400/1739318400-3rng1KjjFOU.png

I don't see any cross-Polar flow in that graphic. Flow tracks north out of the Gulf of Alaska, across Alaska, then southeast to the contiguous US states. It doesn't even travel north of 80N. My wall will hold, regardless.

[Stratton23]

The wall will collapse

[txtwister78]

GFS/CMC differences at the 500. CMC definitely with mega blocking where you need it (Alaska/Western Canada) with the trough centered over the Rockies pushing cold down into Texas. GFS completely opposite.

[txtwister78]

Ensembles (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) for the most part show continued warmth stretching into the long range. Perhaps a brief cool down around the 8th or 9th. Not seeing it right now if you're looking for cold to return anytime soon. Even the folks that some cited on here (BAM weather) have gone pretty quiet as of late but in a post early this morning acknowledged the warmth resisting the - EPO signal (which for now looks to be temporary with signs that may move to more neutral territory in the long range).

In addition, the problem for folks who want more cold is the longer this thaw drags on, the less likely (doesn't mean it can't happen) you're going to get the type of cold needed for a real return to winter/winter precip across more areas of the state. As February moves forward our norms for temps continue to rise and so arctic air hitting in mid January tends to be more impactful than cold in mid to late February relative to our averages.

[Stratton23]

Good news is im setting my thermostat to 60 degrees so at least it will be winter all year long here! I dread the misery ahead

[South Texas Storms]

Ensembles (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) for the most part show continued warmth stretching into the long range. Perhaps a brief cool down around the 8th or 9th. Not seeing it right now if you're looking for cold to return anytime soon. Even the folks that some cited on here (BAM weather) have gone pretty quiet as of late but in a post early this morning acknowledged the warmth resisting the - EPO signal (which for now looks to be temporary with signs that may move to more neutral territory in the long range).

In addition, the problem for folks who want more cold is the longer this thaw drags on, the less likely (doesn't mean it can't happen) you're going to get the type of cold needed for a real return to winter/winter precip across more areas of the state. As February moves forward our norms for temps continue to rise and so arctic air hitting in mid January tends to be more impactful than cold in mid to late February relative to our averages.

Yep I'm still confident that we've already seen the coldest temperatures of the year. Any additional cold blasts likely won't be as strong as our last one. For those who love winter weather, I hope you appreciated our January. It was a good month!

[Wthrfan]

You folks wanting more snow and Arctic are are out of luck. My new work crew of expert masons have significantly reinforced the Canadian and Red River walls as part of my "Make America Warm Again" project. I see nothing too exciting in the latest models. Just normal winter weather.

This is awesome! MAWA!

[Stratton23]

GFS took a small step toward the CMC with a slightly more poleward ridge trying to poke up into alaska, Im sticking with my guns and saying we get one more big shot cold air between the 10-15th, after that im retreating to siberia to escape the misery coming

[Quixotic]

February is our snowiest month. Even March isn’t completely out of the question. Say we got six week window left. Current look is canonical La Niña but get enough cold built up and there should be an opportunity. Watching MJO phases. Noting that cold has returned to Alaska which isn’t good for us.

[mmmmsnouts]

If another burst of cold is just going to lead to an ice storm, we can go right to spring. Don't need anything dangerous and nerve wracking like that.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) for the most part show continued warmth stretching into the long range. Perhaps a brief cool down around the 8th or 9th. Not seeing it right now if you're looking for cold to return anytime soon. Even the folks that some cited on here (BAM weather) have gone pretty quiet as of late but in a post early this morning acknowledged the warmth resisting the - EPO signal (which for now looks to be temporary with signs that may move to more neutral territory in the long range).

In addition, the problem for folks who want more cold is the longer this thaw drags on, the less likely (doesn't mean it can't happen) you're going to get the type of cold needed for a real return to winter/winter precip across more areas of the state. As February moves forward our norms for temps continue to rise and so arctic air hitting in mid January tends to be more impactful than cold in mid to late February relative to our averages.

Yep I'm still confident that we've already seen the coldest temperatures of the year. Any additional cold blasts likely won't be as strong as our last one. For those who love winter weather, I hope you appreciated our January. It was a good month!

Yawn. You put me to sleep.