Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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northtxboy
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#7381 Postby northtxboy » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:10 pm

Sure has been quiet in here! I bet on Tuesaday this place is going to explode!!!! Cant wait :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7382 Postby newtotex » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:13 pm

So we have a little bit of a lull right now i've got a question. What do you think this springs severe weather season will hold? Will it be more like a la nina or la nino, given the strange weather patter were in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7383 Postby Parker_County1 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:14 pm

Yes, it's very quiet. I guess everybody's tired from this past week! It was difficult to sleep a couple of nights with most of the exciting weather happening during the night.
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#7384 Postby Turtle » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:16 pm

The 00z GFS looks drier for me. Now I'm in the .25 instead of .50 qpf. Well, hopefully this won't become a trend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7385 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:26 pm

GFS still is a little slow with the front much like the 18z, so keeps it a 4-6 inch snowfall. Based on soundings from the 0z run I still believe it will be a rain/quickly changing to snow storm instead of that nasty icy mix in between. Looks pretty cold aloft, at least for OKC and DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7386 Postby iorange55 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:GFS still is a little slow with the front much like the 18z, so keeps it a 4-6 inch snowfall. Based on soundings from the 0z run I still believe it will be a rain/quickly changing to snow storm instead of that nasty icy mix in between. Looks pretty cold aloft, at least for OKC and DFW.


I think so too. I'm sure they'll go back and forth on it. Based on the fact that I think it's slow with it and maybe even a light on precip I think totals will be a little higher than that. NWS has never (not that I remember) jumped on an event like they have with this one.

Might be a big one.


Not an official forecast and all that jazz.
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#7387 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:49 am

I should be online for a couple hours. Keep me posted with the new models if you guys are awake. It sure is quiet in here. One more snow ought to do it for me. Baseball season is soon and so is a trip to Chicago in March. Probably will be freezing there in mid March. I am sure we will get stick in a late winter blizzard. Learning alot from the these dicussions. Mid week storm and then a warm up would be just fine.
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#7388 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:10 am

I've been a weather watcher for years and I am certainly no expert, but this system for next week could be huge. This is based on the pro mets in DFW, Weather Channel, NWS, Accuweather and other outlets already and confidently discussing this storm. When was the last time a winter strom of this magnitude was touched on this far out. And it is not just today, this storm and its potential has been talked about for a couple of days now. Rarely, if at all, does this happen. Simple musings from a weather novice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7389 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:12 am

Canadian and GFS ensembles appear to be trending towards a slower cold front but higher qpf. Looks like another tough forecast shaping up for the middle of the week
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7390 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:15 am

orangeblood wrote:Canadian and GFS ensembles appear to be trending towards a slower cold front but higher qpf. Looks like another tough forecast shaping up for the middle of the week

Isn't it always. North Texas is right at the dividing line of "will it be rain or snow" with each storm it seems.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7391 Postby iorange55 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:35 am

Euro seems to be digging that low. I really hope this isn't an ice event because that would be a dangerous ice storm with all that moisture.
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#7392 Postby jerryh421 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:43 am

Hi, I live north of houston near Lake Conroe. Is there any slight chance I could see wintry precip here next week or any week in the near future or is it over for us?
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#7393 Postby WacoWx » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:52 am

Whoa, just updated myself on the upcoming event next tues/wed for the dfw area, which oddly enough is the day i move to dallas!

The suspense is terrible, i hope it will last.
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#7394 Postby jerryh421 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:54 am

Another thing, I'm fascinated by the weather. You guys are great with all this. Thanks! :D
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Re:

#7395 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:59 am

WacoWx wrote:Whoa, just updated myself on the upcoming event next tues/wed for the dfw area, which oddly enough is the day i move to dallas!

The suspense is terrible, i hope it will last.

What is the new update? And welcome to Dallas! Maybe you should wait until the weekend to move. This next storm could be a doozy.
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Re:

#7396 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:59 am

jerryh421 wrote:Another thing, I'm fascinated by the weather. You guys are great with all this. Thanks! :D


Nothing looks too serious for Houston *yet*. There have been a few runs that have shown possible icing. It will depend on the timing of the cold air. If it comes faster than expect, could pose a threat.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re:

#7397 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:03 am

jerryh421 wrote:Hi, I live north of houston near Lake Conroe. Is there any slight chance I could see wintry precip here next week or any week in the near future or is it over for us?

Welcome to the forum. And I havent looked at the houston area in the models lately, but earlier this morning, I believe one of the pro mets mentioned that the gfs at that time showed the possibility of a brief window of sleet in the northwestern sections of the houston area. I dont know if any of the models are still showing this, but if anything does happen down there, it will likely be light and short lived. Not anything severe.
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Re: Re:

#7398 Postby jerryh421 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:07 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
jerryh421 wrote:Hi, I live north of houston near Lake Conroe. Is there any slight chance I could see wintry precip here next week or any week in the near future or is it over for us?

Welcome to the forum. And I havent looked at the houston area in the models lately, but earlier this morning, I believe one of the pro mets mentioned that the gfs at that time showed the possibility of a brief window of sleet in the northwestern sections of the houston area. I dont know if any of the models are still showing this, but if anything does happen down there, it will likely be light and short lived. Not anything severe.


Okay thanks! Hopefully winter won't be over yet even after next week.
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#7399 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:14 am

Due North of you the fans and turbines are picking up.....


-8°C
Light snow

* Feels Like: -17°C
* Wind: N 31km/h <--------
* Wind gusts: 41km/h
* Sunrise: 8:29
* Sunset: 18:03

* Relative Humidity: 79%
* Pressure: 102.75 kPa
* Visibility: 6.4 km
* Ceiling: 2000 ft

Winds from the north, heading due South, and we are predicted to hit -23°C (actual temp) later today (your one blessing is that we aren't as cold as we normally are at this time of year).
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#7400 Postby missytingarland » Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:21 am

Ok, so I'm up here in Sherman at my mom's and I turn on the weather and they say we're under a winter weather advisory? Is there any chance this front today could turn into more than we thought?
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