Texas Winter 2010-2011

[vbhoutex]

I've been a weather watcher for years and I am certainly no expert, but this system for next week could be huge. This is based on the pro mets in DFW, Weather Channel, NWS, Accuweather and other outlets already and confidently discussing this storm. When was the last time a winter strom of this magnitude was touched on this far out. And it is not just today, this storm and its potential has been talked about for a couple of days now. Rarely, if at all, does this happen. Simple musings from a weather novice.

I don't know how the last storm was handled in your area, but down here in SE TX that is how it was for the one we all just had. Very seldom, if ever do we see predictions for snow 4 or 5 days out, which is what we were seeing down here. Of course for that particular event the p-type was a bust since we had ice instead, but they were good on the temps and the timing was only off by a few hours. Here in Houston the current public discussions(OCMs) aren't even alluding to the possibility of winter precip in our area. I think some of that is due to the p-type bust we just had and I think the rest is erring on the side of caution(no embarrassment). And models are not showing as much of, if any chance of, winter precip in our area for this nest event. Of course down here it is even harder to forecast winter events than it is in your area with the Gulf so near. JMHO

[Jarodm12]

based on radar trends i would not be surprised if north texas got 3 inchs of snow tonight.

this is not an offical forecast, im just a monkey on a type writer

[cheezyWXguy]

Well its currently 42 degrees here in plano, when is the colder air supposed to filter in, if at all? If the temp doesnt drop at least another 8 degrees I cant imagine it snowing here today/tonight

[Parker_County1]

I think I will stick to observing the current weather rather than try to predict it.

Last night around 10 the radar was lighting up to the northwest and I thought there might be some snow flurries here by morning. But, no, totally clear skies this morning!

[Ntxw]

Well its currently 42 degrees here in plano, when is the colder air supposed to filter in, if at all? If the temp doesnt drop at least another 8 degrees I cant imagine it snowing here today/tonight

It's supposed to come just ahead of that huge batch of precip according to models. It's one of those cases where the ground probably won't get to freezing (January 9-10 storm). If it snows, it will come down to evaporative cooling. If that doesn't materialize just plain rain.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Well its currently 42 degrees here in plano, when is the colder air supposed to filter in, if at all? If the temp doesnt drop at least another 8 degrees I cant imagine it snowing here today/tonight

It's supposed to come just ahead of that huge batch of precip according to models. It's one of those cases where the ground probably won't get to freezing (January 9-10 storm). If it snows, it will come down to evaporative cooling. If that doesn't materialize just plain rain.

Is the HRRR showing any precip for NTX this afternoon and evening?

[Portastorm]

Due North of you the fans and turbines are picking up.....


-8°C
Light snow

* Feels Like: -17°C
* Wind: N 31km/h <--------
* Wind gusts: 41km/h
* Sunrise: 8:29
* Sunset: 18:03

* Relative Humidity: 79%
* Pressure: 102.75 kPa
* Visibility: 6.4 km
* Ceiling: 2000 ft

Winds from the north, heading due South, and we are predicted to hit -23°C (actual temp) later today (your one blessing is that we aren't as cold as we normally are at this time of year).

You know, Screamer, the last time you told us the fans were "running" up there ... it got pretty darn cold down here!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a good thump for the TX Panhandle/OK. Early indications are some wintry weather across N TX and chilly damp conditions further S to Coastal areas. We will see.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Is the HRRR showing any precip for NTX this afternoon and evening?

It doesn't show a lot and certainly no accumulating snow. Has light rain with possible snow mixing hr 14/15.

Meanwhile, Mr No (GFS), looks about unchanged. Cold front comes through, few inches of snowfall, then outta here Weds.

[DentonGal]

The 12Z GFS suggests a good thump for the TX Panhandle/OK. Early indications are some wintry weather across N TX and chilly damp conditions further S to Coastal areas. We will see.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Is this for today or Wednesday?

[srainhoutx]

Is this for today or Wednesday?

Mid week.

[Portastorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Regarding the Tuesday night-Wednesday "event" ... I can see why NWSFOs in Texas are concerned about the Arctic air coming south more quickly than what the GFS (including the new 12z run) is showing. This is a classic error, as we know, of this model ... not capturing the true speed of a shallow Arctic airmass. The 12z run again holds up the air prior to the upper level energy traversing North Texas. As the pro mets have told us, we won't really have a good handle on who gets what until we see what kind of air is coming south and how quickly it is moving (i.e. 24 hours or less). The GFS has been consistent on the ULL path and that would imply, to me at least, that North Texas and Oklahoma are in the bullseye.

I think for points Waco and north it is "game on" for a winter weather event. My area is dicey and could go either way. I agree that it is unlikely that SE Texas will see anything but cold rain.

[iorange55]

GFS keeps wanting to give us less and less snow. My foot of snow prediction is going down!

[Portastorm]

GFS keeps wanting to give us less and less snow. My foot of snow prediction is going down!

Don't forget how badly some of the models handled precip amounts with the last storm.

[Ntxw]

GFS keeps wanting to give us less and less snow. My foot of snow prediction is going down!

It will come! A lot of it will depend on cold air, more cold air = faster changeover and higher ratio's. Precip will be there. Right now the models are keeping the cold mostly in Oklahoma but we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Canadian bacon is next!

Edit: I think the NWS going bullish might have doomed us all from accumulating snow!

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS keeps wanting to give us less and less snow. My foot of snow prediction is going down!

God, Ill say, the 12z really doesnt look like much...for anybody. This is quite a turn around from yesterday, with its swath of 6-10 inches across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA. Who knows though, maybe things'll turn around.
Edit: actually after looking over it again, it certainly looks like oklahoma gets the bullseye again, at least on this run. So at least someone would be getting a big snowfall, although Im sure theyre pretty sick of it by now

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Due North of you the fans and turbines are picking up.....


-8°C
Light snow

* Feels Like: -17°C
* Wind: N 31km/h <--------
* Wind gusts: 41km/h
* Sunrise: 8:29
* Sunset: 18:03

* Relative Humidity: 79%
* Pressure: 102.75 kPa
* Visibility: 6.4 km
* Ceiling: 2000 ft

Winds from the north, heading due South, and we are predicted to hit -23°C (actual temp) later today (your one blessing is that we aren't as cold as we normally are at this time of year).

You know, Screamer, the last time you told us the fans were "running" up there ... it got pretty darn cold down here!!

I do remember that Portastorm.....however after reading your quote I looked out the window at my very tall ponderosa pine and it isn't moving as much now....



-12°C
Light snow

* Feels Like: -20
* Wind: N 20km/h
* Sunrise: 8:29
* Sunset: 18:03

* Relative Humidity: 78%
* Pressure: 103.36 kPa
* Visibility: 19.0 km
* Ceiling: 1200 ft

My fans need some dust blown out and an oiling it would seem.

[Portastorm]

Some interesting thoughts from EWX this late Sunday morning regarding the Tues night-Wed event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS BASED ON THE 12Z
NAM SOLUTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE MIXING TO THE SFC
IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TRAJECTORY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AND DRY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT HAS
OCCURRED AT OZONA AND COMANCHE. THUS EXPECT THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPCOMING WINTER PCPN EVENT. THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. IF OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH THIS TIMING...WE WILL HAVE TO DO A MAJOR
REVISION OF THE FCST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN REGARDS TO
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Some interesting thoughts from EWX this late Sunday morning regarding the Tues night-Wed event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS BASED ON THE 12Z
NAM SOLUTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE MIXING TO THE SFC
IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TRAJECTORY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AND DRY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT HAS
OCCURRED AT OZONA AND COMANCHE. THUS EXPECT THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPCOMING WINTER PCPN EVENT. THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. IF OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH THIS TIMING...WE WILL HAVE TO DO A MAJOR
REVISION OF THE FCST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN REGARDS TO
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE.

So are they thinking the front will move in faster, or slower?

[Portastorm]

Funny you should ask that! I was thinking the same thing and went back and looked at EWX's early morning discussion. In that one they mentioned they were siding with the Euro which showed a quicker movement of the cold air. They mentioned "early Wednesday." If the 12z NAM is showing the Arctic air arriving in our area by 12z Wednesday (6 am), that would qualify as early Wednesday to me. So ... heck ... I don't know!