Texas Winter 2014-2015

[hriverajr]

What folks in Central, West Central, and South Central Texas need to realize -- and Bob touched on this in his blog -- this system is much more dynamic than any other which has hit us this winter season. It's the same system which spurred severe storms in Southern California and is helping copious amounts of snow to fall on Flagstaff, Arizona. The "energy" from this system will likely be further south and that is why concern should be growing for our part of the state.

At a minimum, the 12z GFS showed .22" of FREEZING rain for Austin. That's more than enough to create havoc here.

Just looking at the system via satellite, It's footprint is huge. The associated trough extends down to the latitude of Guadalajara, Mexico, associated moisture fetch even farther south. It's going to be interesting.

[downsouthman1]

What folks in Central, West Central, and South Central Texas need to realize -- and Bob touched on this in his blog -- this system is much more dynamic than any other which has hit us this winter season. It's the same system which spurred severe storms in Southern California and is helping copious amounts of snow to fall on Flagstaff, Arizona. The "energy" from this system will likely be further south and that is why concern should be growing for our part of the state.

At a minimum, the 12z GFS showed .22" of FREEZING rain for Austin. That's more than enough to create havoc here.

Just looking at the system via satellite, It's footprint is huge. The associated trough extends down to the latitude of Guadalajara, Mexico, associated moisture fetch even farther south. It's going to be interesting.

I was just seeing that too looking at a WV loop.

[Texas Snowman]

Looking more and more like Portastorm and the PWC headquarters will get in on the winter weather action as we wind the 2014-15 winter season down.

With that in mind...

[Texas Snowman]

As long as this storm doesn't just completely vanish off the map, I'd say that it looks like we're going to make at least 400 pages on this thread this winter.

I'm not sure anyone thought that was possible the last week of January.

[weatherdude1108]

What folks in Central, West Central, and South Central Texas need to realize -- and Bob touched on this in his blog -- this system is much more dynamic than any other which has hit us this winter season. It's the same system which spurred severe storms in Southern California and is helping copious amounts of snow to fall on Flagstaff, Arizona. The "energy" from this system will likely be further south and that is why concern should be growing for our part of the state.

At a minimum, the 12z GFS showed .22" of FREEZING rain for Austin. That's more than enough to create havoc here.

Just looking at the system via satellite, It's footprint is huge. The associated trough extends down to the latitude of Guadalajara, Mexico, associated moisture fetch even farther south. It's going to be interesting.

I was just seeing that too looking at a WV loop.

".22" is worthy of "Winter Storm Warning" criteria, right? If 0.25" ice or more is predicted, isn't that "Ice Storm Warning" criteria? When EWX will issue the warnings (if any) remains to be seen.

[downsouthman1]

".22" is worthy of "Winter Storm Warning" criteria, right? If 0.25" ice or more is predicted, isn't that "Ice Storm Warning" criteria? When EWX will issue the warnings (if any) remains to be seen.

If this gets officially forecast, I presume it would be issued tomorrow afternoon.

[weatherdude1108]

As of a 2:18pm graphic by EWX, Where I live is in the "Icing Likely" category.

Downtown and points south towards PWC looks like "Icing Possible."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ewx&gc=6

[SouthernMet]

downsouthman1, WSW are normally issued 48 hours prior to an event.

[downsouthman1]

downsouthman1, WSW are normally issued 48 hours prior to an event.

Maybe. But they've been during the event lately for EWX or within 12-24 hours prior for a WWA. I can't see them launching early today.

[srainhoutx]

FWIW...HGX believes the NAM/Euro are too slow with the front and the GFS is closer to reality, but likely too slow as well. Main take away today, expect changes tomorrow as the progression of the front gets a bit closer to reality, but do not expect more than Highlights from the WFO's due to all the uncertainty as of today.

[somethingfunny]

The front is always faster than expected. My only question is about moisture.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED FOR A FEW DAYS WHILE THE REST OF THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL KICK A SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTH WITH LOCAL WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY WARMING
TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BREEZY BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MOST OF
THE DAY. INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN
IN THE EVENING...THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE FEEL THE NAM SERIES IS TOO SLOW WITH WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT AND
HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ONCE IT PASSES AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ABOVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS/RAIN GOING MOST OF
THE DAY. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD DEEPENS...RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN TO ALL SLEET.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IT AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO
END...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THIS EVENT. WE EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO BEGIN ALONG THE RED RIVER
AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE METROPLEX SHORTLY AFTER
MIDDAY AND AROUND WACO/KILLEEN/PALESTINE BY SUNSET.

THE MAIN AREA OF OUR CONCERN IS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE WITH FOCUS
ON WACO/KILLEEN TO ATHENS/PALESTINE...WHERE WE THINK SLEET COULD
ACCUMULATE UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN UP TO 1/10 INCH. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE AROUND 700MB AND THE
RIGHT- REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THIS
REGION. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/ICE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS AN EVOLVING SYSTEM
AND THE ACTUAL LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SLEET AND ICE WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SOME AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED.

AS FOR THE METROPLEX...ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW...PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON MIX-MASTERS..
OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES...FOLLOWED BY ROADWAYS SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY OF THE SLEET AND DURATION WILL GOVERN HOW FAST
IMPACTS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. IF AROUND
ONE-TENTH OR MORE OF SLEET ACCUMULATES BY DARK...THEN IMPACTS
WOULD LAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 75

&&

[TXdaddy217]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=sjt&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=226&map.y=89#.VPTHgLA3PIU

The latest forecast for the San Angelo/Abilene area. Predicts the dreaded THUNDERSLEET on Wednesday.

I don't see that.

My bad You have a good eye. They must have changed the wording of the forecast. It originally said 50% chance of sleet with thunder possible. Don't really need that anyways with I-20 being such an obstacle course in winter weather.

[downsouthman1]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=sjt&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=226&map.y=89#.VPTHgLA3PIU

The latest forecast for the San Angelo/Abilene area. Predicts the dreaded THUNDERSLEET on Wednesday.

I don't see that.

My bad You have a good eye. They must have changed the wording of the forecast. It originally said 50% chance of sleet with thunder possible. Don't really need that anyways with I-20 being such an obstacle course in winter weather.

You could be right. I see the wording on those things change periodically throughout the day anyway. I believe they're somewhat automated based on some kind of feed.

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUDY SKIES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
INTACT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 02/20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK
AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. WITH AN INCREASED MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...WE/LL MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS COOL
AND MOIST AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOG CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TOMORROW GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
WARM AS WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. WE/LL
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE/LL MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIX GIVEN THE SHALLOW...COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF A DEL
RIO...SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE LINE. AGAIN...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
SAN ANTONIO. BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL
LIQUID.

COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN
A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

[dhweather]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
346 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MOST
LIKELY TO BE SLEET...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.

* LOCATION...THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR
SLEET APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH ARE THOSE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS. HOWEVER...ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS IS LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS EVENT.

* TIMING...WE EXPECT RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEGINNING ALONG THE RED RIVER AROUND MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
...ACROSS THE METROPLEX SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY AND AROUND
WACO/KILLEEN/PALESTINE BY SUNSET.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATION AND IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING DURING
THE AFTERNOON IT WOULD TAKE LITTLE TO PRODUCE DETERIORATING ROAD
CONDITIONS AND SOME TRAVEL DELAYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS AT THIS TIME.

* ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON HOW FAST COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE EARLIER THE COLD AIR IS HERE...THE MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH AND HOW LONG WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THIS
EVENT.

PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

CAVANAUGH

[Brent]

Models keep trending drier, whether it's the correct trend remains to be seen:

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z ECMWF snowfall predictions for Texas starting at 1/4" as requested. Don't take the chart below literally, the EURO tends to ignore temps above the surface being well above freezing.

[Portastorm]

Well, on the plus side it does seem like EWX is now "on board" regarding what most of the models are showing. On the not-so-plus side, it sure would be nice to see some kind of public statement issued like NWSFO Fort Worth is doing to at least alert the public that a major winter event may be on the horizon.

If changes in guidance are minimal overnight or if they show even greater amounts of precip, I surely hope EWX hoists a Winter Storm Watch with their 4 am forecast update tomorrow. Standard time frames for watches this winter in NWS Southern Region seem to be 24-36 hours.

[downsouthman1]

Models keep trending drier, whether it's the correct trend remains to be seen:

That's an accumulated snow map. But this is not expected to be a snow storm.