Texas Winter 2017-2018

[utweather]

Perfect weather this week for the Austin area. Sunny, highs in the 60s. Little warmer at night later in the week with some increasing clouds. Enjoy the present!

[Ralph's Weather]

Despite it being warm during the day we are still picking up decent freezes at night. Yesterday was 24 and this morning is currently 27.

30 here this morning.

[wxman22]

Gfs has been inconsistent the last 3 runs lol no model is doing well!!! When are y’all going to realize to not model hug and that models have only been good with winter weather like a day or 2 out

Yeah but is anyone actually model hugging? Just because you post images of a model and discuss what the model shows doesn’t mean you actually buy it for all it’s worth. This community is about discussing the different variables and solutions that the weather pattern and models show, discussing and or posting what a particular model shows doesn’t mean that you actually believe it,it’s just talking about the different scenarios that could happen...

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is back with 1060mb+ in WCan. Lets see if it can come down with a storm

[EnnisTx]

Gfs has been inconsistent the last 3 runs lol no model is doing well!!! When are y’all going to realize to not model hug and that models have only been good with winter weather like a day or 2 out

Yeah but is anyone actually model hugging? Just because you post images of a model and discuss what the model shows doesn’t mean you actually buy it for all it’s worth. This community is about discussing the different variables and solutions that the weather pattern and models show, discussing and or posting what a particular model shows doesn’t mean that you actually believe it,it’s just talking about the different scenarios that could happen...

This is true, lot's of knowledge gained by doing so. However I can't wait until I can hug the model thats only one day out and bringing a nice snowstorm with it!

[Ntxw]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

[orangeblood]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

[South Texas Storms]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

Yeah that's what I'm concerned about too. It looks quite dry over the next week at least. Drought continues to build...

[Ntxw]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

We are all well aware of this problem and have addressed it multiple times. Beating the same dead horse isn't going to change it

[Ntxw]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

Yeah that's what I'm concerned about too. It looks quite dry over the next week at least. Drought continues to build...

The +PNA and second year Nina has taken a tough toll on it I agree. Hopefully we can eek out a Nino this summer to change it up but we are probably in for drier than normal conditions for 2-4+ months at least

[Snowman67]

Wxman 57 - Would love to hear your take on the next couple of weeks regarding the potential for cold in Texas. Are you still on board with a cold mid month?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Id give up any potential arctic air to just have days like today all winter. Temp in the low 40s, wind chill in the 30s. Pretty awesome day.

[orangeblood]

Not quite there for early next week on GFS but it was a good trend in right direction. Even the CMC isn't terrible

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

We are all well aware of this problem and have addressed it multiple times. Beating the same dead horse isn't going to change it

Dead horse ?? It's the elephant in the room as to our winter precip drought and one of the most important variables. I'm just attempting to conjure up a discussion as to what we need to look for on medium/long range guidance for any clues to solving that particular variable.

My first thought - we need the Eastern Pacific Ridge axis to shift about 400-500 miles west and that could open up to the gulf just enough to make things interesting around here

[wxman57]

Wxman 57 - Would love to hear your take on the next couple of weeks regarding the potential for cold in Texas. Are you still on board with a cold mid month?

12Z Euro is indicating cross-Polar flow setting up at 240 hrs (Feb. 8th). The GFS has similar flow a couple days later. It's not looking like there will be much, if any, Arctic air in Texas next week. Chances of any winter precip are low because of that, and because the NW flow aloft won't lend itself to much post-frontal moisture with Sunday's cold front.

Any winter precip across NE Texas may have to wait until mid-month, assuming that the cross-Polar flow DOES develop and we DO get a shot of colder air in here around the 14th-15th.

[Ntxw]

How are we going to get moisture out of this projected pattern ? Louisiana and points east can find it out of the Gulf but where will this part of the country find it ?

We are all well aware of this problem and have addressed it multiple times. Beating the same dead horse isn't going to change it

Dead horse ?? It's the elephant in the room as to our winter precip drought and one of the most important variables. I'm just attempting to conjure up a discussion as to what we need to look for on medium/long range guidance for any clues to solving that particular variable.

My first thought - we need the Eastern Pacific Ridge axis to shift about 400-500 miles west and that could open up to the gulf just enough to make things interesting around here

Yes it is well noted. I said multiple times early in winter +PNA may keep popping up this winter back in December despite models trying to dampen it. Without an El Nino, it's no good we all know the risk with that pattern. It is not something that just appeared. Going forward suppression is still the problem. I'm not arguing your point because it is right. I'm not sure what you are alluding to.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wxman 57 - Would love to hear your take on the next couple of weeks regarding the potential for cold in Texas. Are you still on board with a cold mid month?

12Z Euro is indicating cross-Polar flow setting up at 240 hrs (Feb. 8th). The GFS has similar flow a couple days later. It's not looking like there will be much, if any, Arctic air in Texas next week. Chances of any winter precip are low because of that, and because the NW flow aloft won't lend itself to much post-frontal moisture with Sunday's cold front.

Any winter precip across NE Texas may have to wait until mid-month, assuming that the cross-Polar flow DOES develop and we DO get a shot of colder air in here around the 14th-15th.

WE HAVE A DEAL!!!

[Ntxw]

No snow on 18z GFS but chilly to start next week verbatim

[orangeblood]

No snow on 18z GFS but chilly to start next week verbatim

Pacific Ridge has been shifting west over past few runs....also, at this range, I think we'd prefer to see wintry precip in Oklahoma as it typically trends south as we get closer. Of course, if moisture really is available

[Ntxw]

a closed Pacific 500mb ridge is definitely better than an open one

[Quixotic]

:uarrow: a closed Pacific 500mb ridge is definitely better than an open one

Depends on perspective!