Texas Winter 2017-2018

[hamburgerman7070]

Southtexastorms, do you think we will have to wait for the mjo to get to the colder phases for us to have any remote chance at winter weather here? If so, then we have a ways to go. I would like to see Pacific ridge retrograde enough to shake things up
around here. The funny thing is the euro ens has the pna remaining negative throughout

[South Texas Storms]

Southtexastorms, do you think we will have to wait for the mjo to get to the colder phases for us to have any remote chance at winter weather here? If so, then we have a ways to go. I would like to see Pacific ridge retrograde enough to shake things up
around here. The funny thing is the euro ens has the pna remaining negative throughout

Yeah I think we need to be patient. February still looks to have a decent shot of producing winter weather across the region. Our best chance might be from February 10-25.

[Cpv17]

Southtexastorms, do you think we will have to wait for the mjo to get to the colder phases for us to have any remote chance at winter weather here? If so, then we have a ways to go. I would like to see Pacific ridge retrograde enough to shake things up
around here. The funny thing is the euro ens has the pna remaining negative throughout

Yeah I think we need to be patient. February still looks to have a decent shot of producing winter weather across the region. Our best chance might be from February 10-25.

I was happy to see the 18z GFS have several decent chances of rain for a good part of Texas over the next couple weeks. Hope that verifies.

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies are pretty blah, below normal precipitation and above normal temps for most of Texas into March.

It looks our best chances would be mid to late February as there is a period that looks to be potentially favorable. The ever present western ridge relaxes some in the mean, so there should be some favorable members during that period.

[SGJ]

Newest Euro Weeklies are pretty blah, below normal precipitation and above normal temps for most of Texas into March.

It looks our best chances would be mid to late February as there is a period that looks to be potentially favorable. The ever present western ridge relaxes some in the mean, so there should be some favorable members during that period.

I think I saw a post from Steve McCauley that said his Stat Method was telling him that parts of North Texas would have precip a week from today? I need to look - I'm in Wylie and we've not gotten winter weather for 3 years now...so I'm not holding my breath.... but his Stat Method has a pretty good record so.... I thought I'd bring it up in case someone else read that and might be able to expand. (I'm a weather enthusiast with very little weather knowledge to back it up!) Thanks!!

[Brent]

Newest Euro Weeklies are pretty blah, below normal precipitation and above normal temps for most of Texas into March.

It looks our best chances would be mid to late February as there is a period that looks to be potentially favorable. The ever present western ridge relaxes some in the mean, so there should be some favorable members during that period.

I think I saw a post from Steve McCauley that said his Stat Method was telling him that parts of North Texas would have precip a week from today? I need to look - I'm in Wylie and we've not gotten winter weather for 3 years now...so I'm not holding my breath.... but his Stat Method has a pretty good record so.... I thought I'd bring it up in case someone else read that and might be able to expand. (I'm a weather enthusiast with very little weather knowledge to back it up!) Thanks!!

This is what he posted, limited moisture unfortunately, probably something like the other events have been this winter up here

Although north Texas will not be in the core of the Arctic Air, the Stat Method continues to forecast a widespread hard freeze by Monday morning with limited moisture resulting in a light wintry mix for at least the north and northeastern sections of north Texas.

[missygirl810]

Newest Euro Weeklies are pretty blah, below normal precipitation and above normal temps for most of Texas into March.

It looks our best chances would be mid to late February as there is a period that looks to be potentially favorable. The ever present western ridge relaxes some in the mean, so there should be some favorable members during that period.

I think I saw a post from Steve McCauley that said his Stat Method was telling him that parts of North Texas would have precip a week from today? I need to look - I'm in Wylie and we've not gotten winter weather for 3 years now...so I'm not holding my breath.... but his Stat Method has a pretty good record so.... I thought I'd bring it up in case someone else read that and might be able to expand. (I'm a weather enthusiast with very little weather knowledge to back it up!) Thanks!!

This is what he posted, limited moisture unfortunately, probably something like the other events have been this winter up here

Although north Texas will not be in the core of the Arctic Air, the Stat Method continues to forecast a widespread hard freeze by Monday morning with limited moisture resulting in a light wintry mix for at least the north and northeastern sections of north Texas.

Hey, it is better than nothing!!!! lol

[Brent]

I think I saw a post from Steve McCauley that said his Stat Method was telling him that parts of North Texas would have precip a week from today? I need to look - I'm in Wylie and we've not gotten winter weather for 3 years now...so I'm not holding my breath.... but his Stat Method has a pretty good record so.... I thought I'd bring it up in case someone else read that and might be able to expand. (I'm a weather enthusiast with very little weather knowledge to back it up!) Thanks!!

This is what he posted, limited moisture unfortunately, probably something like the other events have been this winter up here

Although north Texas will not be in the core of the Arctic Air, the Stat Method continues to forecast a widespread hard freeze by Monday morning with limited moisture resulting in a light wintry mix for at least the north and northeastern sections of north Texas.

Hey, it is better than nothing!!!! lol

I had a frozen windshield on NYE lol

and about 20 wind blown snow pellets 2 weeks ago

Need to do better than that

[missygirl810]

This is what he posted, limited moisture unfortunately, probably something like the other events have been this winter up here

Although north Texas will not be in the core of the Arctic Air, the Stat Method continues to forecast a widespread hard freeze by Monday morning with limited moisture resulting in a light wintry mix for at least the north and northeastern sections of north Texas.

Hey, it is better than nothing!!!! lol

I had a frozen windshield on NYE lol

and about 20 wind blown snow pellets 2 weeks ago

Need to do better than that

Well, you have a point there my friend lol. That is about all we have seen as well. I think we saw more right before Halloween lol.

[Brent]

Delkus just called the GFS, the only sort of snowy model here next week, the "worst" model

[Yukon Cornelius]

If it’s not gonna be cold then bring on spring.

[Ntxw]

If it’s not gonna be cold then bring on spring.

The sooner that comes the sooner the hot summer comes. And we already know a hot one is looming. Drought is first sign of it. The analogs and persistent dry conditions say get ready for 30-40+ 100F days. In Texas any kind of widespread drought will feed the cockroach ridge of death.

[CaptinCrunch]

Delkus just called the GFS, the only sort of snowy model here next week, the "worst" model

Delkus is probably the worst weather personality in DFW. Notice I said personality and NOT weatherman.

[Brent]

If it’s not gonna be cold then bring on spring.

The sooner that comes the sooner the hot summer comes. And we already know a hot one is looming. Drought is first sign of it. The analogs and persistent dry conditions say get ready for 30-40+ 100F days. In Texas any kind of widespread drought will feed the cockroach ridge of death.

yeah, this will be my 4th summer here... and we've been too lucky. I'm also feeling a really bad summer if we don't start getting more moisture up in here, whether it's frozen or liquid

[Ntxw]

yeah, this will be 4th summer here... and we've been too lucky. I'm also feeling a really bad summer if we don't start getting more moisture up in here, whether it's frozen or liquid

Even more worrisome is the widespread nature all across the southern US. You bridge the Sonoran and Bermuda highs you get attacked from both sides. When one ridge relaxes the other ridge kicks in. A lot of ground feedback this summer it may be. Our lakes have not felt it yet but if the Pacific doesn't help us this spring, it's not going to be pleasant.



Saving grace for now is the PDO is still positive.

[Ntxw]

On a less depressing note

CMC



GFS



Now we just need the seasonal south trend suppression in this case to help

[bubba hotep]

On a less depressing note

CMC



GFS



Now we just need the seasonal south trend suppression in this case to help

The MJO moving into P7 could favor a bit more of a SW dig, that isn't too far off. We just need some help with the timing of moisture return and vort pass.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS bringing the heat in the long range, just for once please be right lol

[Brent]

lol is that 3 winter storms in 3 days on the LR GFS? Mostly ice but hey..

[Yukon Cornelius]

If it’s not gonna be cold then bring on spring.

The sooner that comes the sooner the hot summer comes. And we already know a hot one is looming. Drought is first sign of it. The analogs and persistent dry conditions say get ready for 30-40+ 100F days. In Texas any kind of widespread drought will feed the cockroach ridge of death.

Drought is here. It’s Severe to Extreme drought up this way already.