Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

DFW airport is jackpotting right now, areas just to the south and west of there radar estimates 2-3" already.

Old daily rainfall record was 0.93" so this one makes the record books.

Might be a tiny bit of a stretch, but 2.98" gets DFW to Top 10 wettest January territory.

At least 1.83"+ for the day so far, looks doable.

Edit: 2" now.

It should be noted, the rain gauge is on the far NE side of the airport.

It seems the SE part of the DFW is over 3" per radar estimates.

[Edwards Limestone]

What’s new. DFW flooding again while SC TX continues our plunge deeper into stage 4 drought conditions.

Maybe the drizzlethon will get us to 0.25” total.

[snownado]

What’s new. DFW flooding again while SC TX continues our plunge deeper into stage 4 drought conditions.

Maybe the drizzlethon will get us to 0.25” total.

Even here so far, it's kind of feast or famine.

Most of Denton County and NW Collin County has been shut out from much of the rains

[Ntxw]

Old daily rainfall record was 0.93" so this one makes the record books.

Might be a tiny bit of a stretch, but 2.98" gets DFW to Top 10 wettest January territory.

At least 1.83"+ for the day so far, looks doable.

Edit: 2" now.

It should be noted, the rain gauge is on the far NE side of the airport.

It seems the SE part of the DFW is over 3" per radar estimates.

Isn't the official recording site at DFW airport on the southeast side off runway 17c?

[snownado]

At least 1.83"+ for the day so far, looks doable.

Edit: 2" now.

It should be noted, the rain gauge is on the far NE side of the airport.

It seems the SE part of the DFW is over 3" per radar estimates.

Isn't the official recording site at DFW airport on the southeast side off runway 17c?

I stand corrected.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/curious ... he-runway/

[Stratton23]

Some big changes in the overnight models, cold air is starting to win on the overnight runs, CMC is a hard battle vs the se ridge but the arctic air starts to penetrate north texas, its like a battle hammer, GFS is keeping very persistent - EPO polarward blocking in alaska throughout the entire run, also flattens the se ridge and is pressing the cold more south over time, need to watch the mext few days for trends because thats quite a big change from the last several days

[rwfromkansas]

Is this really supposed to last all night? I mean they talk about it going until noon tomorrow. Goodness.

Already almost up to an inch. Backyard is a pond.

Unless this builds west, I'm thinking this will end quicker rather than later. I was hoping for an all nighter rain event. Either way rain is wonderful.

There is nothing like sleeping to a gentle rain all night.

But, any rain is welcome. Over an inch IMBY.

[txtwister78]

Not brutally cold but a definite switch from what models had been advertising the past few days.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 yup, AO/ NAO are both trending in the right direction, also seeing a flatter se ridge on the GEFS, that definitely helps the cold air push south with a little less resistance
Euro run coming in now is definitely trending toward -AO with a more amplified - EPO ridge and a flatter se ridge

[Ntxw]

DFW and much of N TX still raining, lots of rebuilding convection.

[DallasAg]

DFW and much of N TX still raining, lots of rebuilding convection.

https://i.imgur.com/MDpeFUs.gif

4.04" IMBY (North Dallas) with another wave to go.

On Radar it looks like some healthy returns showing up for parts of the Hill Country. Hope they're slow-moving, efficient rain-makers for you all!

[HockeyTx82]

Has this been shared here before?

https://youtu.be/Oh9ZwvSuHQo?feature=shared

[TomballEd]

Bowing sector seen on KGRK radar just E of Austin. Dewpoints near 70F, this would be near surface based or surface based and a possible low end severe wind threat.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
714 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

TXZ173-192>194-301400-
Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
714 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Williamson, northeastern Travis, northeastern Bastrop and
northwestern Lee Counties through 800 AM CST...

At 714 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manor, or 8 miles west of Elgin, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Taylor, Elgin,
Lexington, Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Windemere, Hutto, Manor,
Thrall, Fedor, Granger Dam, Coupland, Hornsby Bend, Webberville,
Knobb Springs, Laneport, and Waterloo.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Man, this weekends/early next weeks forecast is depressing.
Mid 70s to almost 80 doesn’t belong in winter.

[TomballEd]

If there isn't snow involved I prefer my temperatures above 50F in the morning. 70s and 80s don't bother me.

I'll take 20F if you can give me accumulating snow.

First severe warning.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
752 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Milam County in central Texas...

* Until 830 AM CST.

* At 752 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thorndale, or
8 miles west of Rockdale, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Rockdale and Alcoa Lake around 800 AM CST.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1884955378930110970

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 thats quite the bold prediction from bastardi, on weatherbell he actually does a daily 5-15 minute video talking about stuff like that, interesting to see his video today after saying that

[Harp.1]

What could he possibly be seeing to make him say that???

[cajungal]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1884955378930110970

And what data does he have to back this up? Anyone can make a statement like that but doesn’t mean it will happen. Extremely hard to get snow into Houston after Valentine’s Day

[Ntxw]

What could he possibly be seeing to make him say that???

Tropical forcing becomes a little more favorable mid month. AKA MJO, the models will gradually look better and better as we swing past the unfavorable phases. If you watch his videos he's been betting that this will shift the pattern.



Feb 1989 is an analog to follow, possibly displaced with the MJO a little more delayed this year than that year but quite similar.