Texas Winter 2017-2018

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, I read somewhere on twitter about supposedly a strong jet will energize a potential winter storm across the south and east. It's something to do with the Pacific setup. I believe.

[Brent]

No snow on the Euro, not much rain either... brief cold early next week(similar to today) otherwise not much to see

[Ralph's Weather]

26 this morning. It had been a boring couple weeks so fingers crossed for early next week. I may start model watching again today to get a handle on trends.

[Yukon Cornelius]

26 this morning. It had been a boring couple weeks so fingers crossed for early next week. I may start model watching again today to get a handle on trends.

24 here. Pretty consistent cold mornings but warmer than forecasted highs, at least here.

[bubba hotep]

GEFS with about as cold of a 5 day mean as you'll ever see in the long range.

[orangeblood]

Yep, projected anomalies of -10 to -20 in the 10-15 day range is a strong indicator this pattern could overwhelm.....The GEFS Mean has been performing much better in the 10-15 range than the others. The Euro Op and ENS have been really bad - I think you have to throw that model out at this time

[Ntxw]

Euro continues to play catch up on the MJO. Forecast points are raising amplitude relative to what it thinks.

Euro vs GFS from earlier. Normally one would side with Euro MJO but it is doing poorly in real time.

[Ntxw]

By the way the Euro has not handled the MJO forecasts well. It's been on its heels trying to catch up on the amplitude on a side note. I went back some pages and it has well underestimated the MJO strength.

This was the forecast awhile ago.

http://i67.tinypic.com/euea7d.jpg

This is verification and where it's going.

http://i63.tinypic.com/33myelg.gif

Something to think about

From previous post



...stay the course

[orangeblood]

Massive bust by the Euro....GFS has handled MJO much better. I believe a stall/slow down in Phase 7 would be more favorable for the Central US over the Eastern US ? I know Phase 8 this time of year is more east

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do we want the mjo to stay amped in phase 7? Is that better for us? Gefs is having better handle on mjo in this part of the world from what I understand. Like I mentioned last night, I read about a strong stj may develop soon, but obviously that's still early

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do we want the mjo to stay amped in phase 7? Is that better for us? Gefs is having better handle on mjo in this part of the world from what I understand. Like I mentioned last night, I read about a strong stj may develop soon, but obviously that's still early

You want it amped and you also want to slow it in 7. Both allows cold to pull westward with the mean trough. It is hard to get STJ with a Nina, not sure I buy that without convection east of the dateline

[orangeblood]

Ntxw, do we want the mjo to stay amped in phase 7? Is that better for us? Gefs is having better handle on mjo in this part of the world from what I understand. Like I mentioned last night, I read about a strong stj may develop soon, but obviously that's still early

You want it amped and you also want to slow it in 7. Both allows cold to pull westward with the mean trough. It is hard to get STJ with a Nina, not sure I buy that without convection east of the dateline

As you mentioned earlier, there aren't a lot of analogs for an amped Phase 7 at this time of year...the only comp is Feb 1978 but that year had a massive block over Hudson Bay - at 500 mb it looks like a complete Anti-log to this Feb projected pattern haha.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do we want the mjo to stay amped in phase 7? Is that better for us? Gefs is having better handle on mjo in this part of the world from what I understand. Like I mentioned last night, I read about a strong stj may develop soon, but obviously that's still early

You want it amped and you also want to slow it in 7. Both allows cold to pull westward with the mean trough. It is hard to get STJ with a Nina, not sure I buy that without convection east of the dateline

As you mentioned earlier, there aren't a lot of analogs for an amped Phase 7 at this time of year...the only comp is Feb 1978 but that year had a massive block over Hudson Bay - at 500 mb it looks like a complete Anti-log to this Feb projected pattern haha.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/compo ... 0k3znO.gif

I agree that year had a Nino to help. Feb 1989 is another good tool. I think the MJO will dampen past p7 because you need greater than 28C to sustain it but its not there east of the dateline from Nina. WWB (westerly wind burst) is sustaining this MJO in P7



In truth the Atlantic has been no help in a long time.

[hamburgerman7070]

I guess we are going in uncharted territory with this amped mjo, is that correct orangeblood? Meaning we aren't sure what may happen. What I meant earlier is the amped mjo should trigger a period of active stj if correct with depiction of amplitude

[orangeblood]

The only close 2nd I have is March 1997 but it's a month later so not a great comp...what is interesting though is that the 500 mb comps are somewhat similar with the Bering Strait Ridge. Cold, unfortunately, stayed to the north across Canada that year

[Cpv17]

Well this is interesting even though it’s just eye candy lol

[hamburgerman7070]

Dr. Cohen seems to never mention about the euro with potential Events like that. Until euro ens are on board with split, its hard to believe the gfs.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well this is interesting even though it’s just eye candy lol

Dr. Cohen seems to never mention about the euro with potential Events like that. Until euro ens are on board with split, its hard to believe the gfs.

Why would you say that? The Euro has struggled this winter.

[hamburgerman7070]

The reason I mentioned activated stj is a few days ago srainhoustx mentioned about cckw that should get it more active and weaken the niña even more. Perhaps I misunderstood him. He said watch for changes down the road

[orangeblood]

Something else I noticed on the 0Z GFS run....a 585 DM Ridge into Alaska, that is Dec 1983 level