Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

the GFS is ugly, wheres my shorts

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll take my chances with a cold Canada and a -EPO.

[orangeblood]

Not much change on the 12z EPS, D15 has a giant ridge across the western US centered over the Rockies. There is basically no cold air on our side of the globe with all the cold displaced into Europe and nearby Russia.

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

More accurate solution based on what? The Euro is beating the GFS on the 5-day skill score but at 6 days both models are very close. You seem to be talking about 10-15 days ahead and you're trying to tell me the Euro is more accurate? How do you know? We're not there yet. Granted, the GFS has moved into the Euro camp in showing no cold ... but some of us have also shared information that longer range pro mets have said that the projected amplitude of the MJO into Phase 7 would create problems for the models in that range.

Sorry, a more reasonable solution is the word I should've used. Their MJO forecasts appear to now be converging on a solution. The GFS amplitude it has been forecasting appears to have been inaccurate while the Euro was the more accurate solution over the past few days. They both are deamplifying this MJO by day 5-6 and are converging on a similar pattern in the 8-15. Now, if a pro met or anyone else has a reasonable theory as to why their now very similar MJO, Upper Level and teleconnection indices don't make sense with each other and/or wrong - I would love to hear their thoughts as to why that might be ? I think most are here to learn and/or voice their opinions.

I personally enjoy reading detailed opinions on medium to long range forecasts...reasons behind their forecasts, not just this time frame is going to be cold/snowy or don't pay attention to models beyond 5 days etc. but thoughts/reasoning behind why they think this or that. In my opinion, the more people that voice their opinions and reasonings behind why (in a cordial way of course), the better this already great forum becomes

[Ntxw]

A lot of the general guidance has ahifted the strongest ridging away from north of the Bering Sea towards the other side of the Arctic to the Barents/Kara Sea. I wonder of the latest stratospheric (Scandinavian wave 2 warming) conditions to split, wrecked havoc

[hamburgerman7070]

I have a question. If the cold is really going back overseas, is winter over then since the mjo may get to phase 8,1, and 2 and no cold to work with? I don't know how we can avoid it now.

[hamburgerman7070]

A lot of the general guidance has ahifted the strongest ridging away from north of the Bering Sea towards the other side of the Arctic to the Barents/Kara Sea. I wonder of the latest stratospheric (Scandinavian wave 2 warming) conditions to split, wrecked havoc

Ntxw, would it take some type of warming to save winter at this point? If the cold really leaves us, we are in trouble imo

[orangeblood]

According to the NCEP MJO experts, it appears the MJO enhanced phase will continue moving east across the Western Pacific. If this comes to fruition and there is still cold air hanging around North America, the 2nd half of Feb (similar to 2015) could be our best shot. The worrisome aspect of that is the cold ?, as models are forecasting majority of this bitter cold to escape out across the Northern Atlantic

Snippen from the MJO NCEP discussion:
An active MJO continues as the enhanced phase propagated east from the Maritime
Continent to the West Pacific during late January, while the suppressed phase
entered the western Indian Ocean.
 Dynamical and statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with the
enhanced phase propagating east across the West Pacific and destructively
interfering with La Nina by Week-2.
 Other modes of tropical variability, including Rossby waves or developing tropical
cyclones, may modulate the amplitude and phase speed of the overall MJO
envelope.
 A robust West Pacific MJO event favors the continuation of below-normal
temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. later in February.

[Ntxw]

A lot of the general guidance has ahifted the strongest ridging away from north of the Bering Sea towards the other side of the Arctic to the Barents/Kara Sea. I wonder of the latest stratospheric (Scandinavian wave 2 warming) conditions to split, wrecked havoc

http://i66.tinypic.com/11lqxag.gif

Ntxw, would it take some type of warming to save winter at this point? If the cold really leaves us, we are in trouble imo

It can change. Still looking at 7-10 days on those maps. It doesn't need to get really cold, we need something to dig in the west. This pesky SSTa and +PNA config is troublesome

[hamburgerman7070]

A lot of the general guidance has ahifted the strongest ridging away from north of the Bering Sea towards the other side of the Arctic to the Barents/Kara Sea. I wonder of the latest stratospheric (Scandinavian wave 2 warming) conditions to split, wrecked havoc

http://i66.tinypic.com/11lqxag.gif

Ntxw, would it take some type of warming to save winter at this point? If the cold really leaves us, we are in trouble imo

It can change. Still looking at 7-10 days on those maps. It doesn't need to get really cold, we need something to dig in the west. This pesky SSTa and +PNA config is troublesome

Is the barents sea better for us than where it is now? I believe we may see an undercutting jet under the ridge out west. I've heard that as a possibility

[dhweather]

The torpedo of AFD truth from FWD

Despite a significant reservoir of arctic air across Canada, the
upper level pattern will deflect this cold air and keep it well
to our northeast. We will however experience periodic and frequent
cold fronts as shortwave energy ripples through the region in the
northwesterly flow aloft. The first of these ripples will bring a
low chance of light rain showers Saturday night and Sunday to
areas east of I-35. A cold front will succeed this shortwave by
Sunday with northerly winds and clearing skies. Temperatures on
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday for most areas due to the
increased sunshine and very limited cold advection. Cold advection
may increase by Sunday night per the ECMWF, but regardless, winds
are expected to turn around to the south during the day on Monday
ahead of the next shortwave. This system will result in another
low chance of light rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night east of
I-35 along the next cold front. Again, temperatures behind the
Tuesday front will just dip a few degrees for Wednesday.

The northwesterly flow aloft will prevail next week and into the
following weekend. This is certainly a dry pattern, but the one
sliver of good news is that it`s not a pattern that leads to
excessively low humidity and windy days like a progressive zonal
pattern can. Thus critical fire weather conditions (i.e. Red Flag
Warnings) are not anticipated next week.

[orangeblood]

The torpedo of AFD truth from FWD

Despite a significant reservoir of arctic air across Canada, the
upper level pattern will deflect this cold air and keep it well
to our northeast. We will however experience periodic and frequent
cold fronts as shortwave energy ripples through the region in the
northwesterly flow aloft. The first of these ripples will bring a
low chance of light rain showers Saturday night and Sunday to
areas east of I-35. A cold front will succeed this shortwave by
Sunday with northerly winds and clearing skies. Temperatures on
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday for most areas due to the
increased sunshine and very limited cold advection. Cold advection
may increase by Sunday night per the ECMWF, but regardless, winds
are expected to turn around to the south during the day on Monday
ahead of the next shortwave. This system will result in another
low chance of light rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night east of
I-35 along the next cold front. Again, temperatures behind the
Tuesday front will just dip a few degrees for Wednesday.

The northwesterly flow aloft will prevail next week and into the
following weekend. This is certainly a dry pattern, but the one
sliver of good news is that it`s not a pattern that leads to
excessively low humidity and windy days like a progressive zonal
pattern can. Thus critical fire weather conditions (i.e. Red Flag
Warnings) are not anticipated next week.

Yep, hard truth no doubt...teleconnection indices are not heading in our favor with the exception possibly being the -EPO but +PNA is forcing any arctic air east - tis the nature of this season

[Portastorm]

Absolutely incredible flip on the GEFS....EPS has been consistent over past few days and it appears to be the more accurate solution. For those who are fascinated with model patterns and tendencies/biases, this season is entertaining, that's for sure

More accurate solution based on what? The Euro is beating the GFS on the 5-day skill score but at 6 days both models are very close. You seem to be talking about 10-15 days ahead and you're trying to tell me the Euro is more accurate? How do you know? We're not there yet. Granted, the GFS has moved into the Euro camp in showing no cold ... but some of us have also shared information that longer range pro mets have said that the projected amplitude of the MJO into Phase 7 would create problems for the models in that range.

Sorry, a more reasonable solution is the word I should've used. Their MJO forecasts appear to now be converging on a solution. The GFS amplitude it has been forecasting appears to have been inaccurate while the Euro was the more accurate solution over the past few days. They both are deamplifying this MJO by day 5-6 and are converging on a similar pattern in the 8-15. Now, if a pro met or anyone else has a reasonable theory as to why their now very similar MJO, Upper Level and teleconnection indices don't make sense with each other and/or wrong - I would love to hear their thoughts as to why that might be ? I think most are here to learn and/or voice their opinions.

I personally enjoy reading detailed opinions on medium to long range forecasts...reasons behind their forecasts, not just this time frame is going to be cold/snowy or don't pay attention to models beyond 5 days etc. but thoughts/reasoning behind why they think this or that. In my opinion, the more people that voice their opinions and reasonings behind why (in a cordial way of course), the better this already great forum becomes

Excellent post. I’m surprised the Euro has nailed the MJO because I was reading so much about how off it’s been about the MJO. But your explanation makes sense and fits the pieces of the puzzle together for me. I would love to know what has changed in the last week to adjust model guidance as much as it has. Seems like a great learning experience to find out the WHYs here.

[Brent]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

[Cpv17]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

[Brent]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

Need something to dig to the west or its pretty useless anyway... we just can't win

[Cpv17]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

Need something to dig to the west or its pretty useless anyway... we just can't win

At this point I just want some stormy weather and a couple inches of rain. Not looking good for cold weather and snow. This weather pattern setting up is the absolute most worst and boring weather pattern ever. Warmer than average and below normal precipitation. The heck with that!

[Brent]

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

Need something to dig to the west or its pretty useless anyway... we just can't win

At this point I just want some stormy weather and a couple inches of rain. Not looking good for cold weather and snow. This weather pattern setting up is the absolute most worst and boring weather pattern ever. Warmer than average and below normal precipitation. The heck with that!

indeed. We need all the rain we can get before the inevitable summer comes.

[NotSparta]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

I'm in the Great Lakes, I'd give all of Texas our cold if I could

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI is finally crashing today at -11. May hit -20s or more with Tahiti pressures falling quickly. We spent most of January positive after mostly negatives in December. There is a correlation in winter to qpf/precipitation events to -SOI crashes. Lag effect will have to wait 7-10 days

[South Texas Storms]

Daily SOI is finally crashing today at -11. May hit -20s or more with Tahiti pressures falling quickly. We spent most of January positive after mostly negatives in December. There is a correlation in winter to qpf/precipitation events to -SOI crashes. Lag effect will have to wait 7-10 days

And sure enough, the latest model guidance is indicating a wetter pattern possibly arriving in the 7-14 day time period. We sure do need the rain.