Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[amawea]

Looks like the lows in Fairbanks and Fort Yukon will be 50 to 65 below for the next 7+ days. That's cold even by their standards.

Yeah, and you would think the weight of that cold air would cause some of it to come spilling southward! I just don't get this pattern we are in. Can't seem to get any cross polar flow and moisture at the same time. I want phasing! I want phasing!!!!!

[jinftl]

Yep, mighty cold week ahead in Fairbanks....temps 'warmer' by the weekend though..

Latest NWS Fairbanks forecast:

MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA
HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
316 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF DENSE ICE FOG IN VALLEYS
WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY NEAR ZERO. HIGHS 35 TO 50 BELOW...
EXCEPT AROUND 15 BELOW ON THE HILLS.

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF DENSE ICE FOG IN VALLEYS.
LOWS 40 TO 55 BELOW IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT AROUND 25 BELOW
ON THE HILLS. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF ICE FOG.
HIGHS 35 TO 50 BELOW...EXCEPT AROUND 20 BELOW ON THE HILLS.
LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF ICE FOG.
LOWS 40 TO 55 BELOW...EXCEPT AROUND 30 BELOW ON THE HILLS.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 35 TO 45 BELOW...EXCEPT
NEAR 25 BELOW ON THE HILLS. LIGHT WINDS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50 BELOW.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 35 BELOW.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40 BELOW.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 25 BELOW.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30 BELOW.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 10 BELOW.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 20 BELOW.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 10 BELOW

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The only freeze I can recall in the last 12 years was on January
24, 2003 when the temperature dropped to 29*F in Saint Petersburg
at the Airport- Still, there was No Ice-- The dew on the car was in the
form of water. Frost is rare too. I haven't seen frost since 2006. And
that year it was only 1 day out of the whole year. Even on the
January 1, 2008 freeze the coldest my thermometer got was 32*F.

Frost Events:
2000: 3 events- coldest temperature mid 30s
2001: 3 events
2002: 4 events
2003: 4 events
2004: 0 events
2005: 0 events
2006: 1 event
2007: 0 events
2008: 0 events
2009: None so far

[JonathanBelles]

I dont remember dates, but since 2005 Ive been down to 28 here at my house. I also had frost here a few weeks ago.

[Ed Mahmoud]

From NWS Miami...

Wow, looks like Tallahassee has even more brutal winter weather than Houston. They should cede it to Georgia in exchange for SSI.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I dont remember dates, but since 2005 Ive been down to 28 here at my house. I also had frost here a few weeks ago.

Lucky!!!! I remember that morning when you reported seeing frost...I went in my
yard about 7 AM and did a search...no frost here- guess it is due to me being
less than a mile west of the Bay, and surrounded by marshland/canals that
connect directly to the "warmer" bay. It was cold that morning-
felt like the upper 30s...though water proximity probably kept it
above 40 thus no frost

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh well, there is frost in my freezer- I can always look at
that if I get bored enough.

[JonathanBelles]

It was 40 degrees the morning I got frost.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Part of it might be that I don't have much grass in the yard.
There is the roadway, then a canal behind, and narrow "alleys"
between the abutting homes. The driveway is pretty large.
The "alleys" is where frost occurs. Perhaps some of that
white colored dew that morning was frost...though
it was over a very narrow area. I don't know for sure though,
I didn't get too close to the area. I sort of did a quick overview
and then walked around and went inside.

[Brent]

From NWS Miami...

Wow, looks like Tallahassee has even more brutal winter weather than Houston. They should cede it to Georgia in exchange for SSI.

Tallahassee gets frigid at times yeah, their all-time record low is only 3 degrees off ours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wonder if the next 10 days will feature a 40 degree morning.
Looking at accuweather long-range, it shows some
low 40s for Saint Petersburg between days 6-10,
we'll see how that plays out.

One would think with that 50 below zero air over Fairbanks
and Canada that at some point the whole arctic air mass
would plunge all the way down into the US and into Florida.
Hasn't happened yet. But with the pattern change to
troughiness in the east it might happen during the middle
part of this month.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only freeze I can recall in the last 12 years was on January
24, 2003 when the temperature dropped to 29*F in Saint Petersburg
at the Airport- Still, there was No Ice-- The dew on the car was in the
form of water. Frost is rare too. I haven't seen frost since 2006. And
that year it was only 1 day out of the whole year. Even on the
January 1, 2008 freeze the coldest my thermometer got was 32*F.

Frost Events:
2000: 3 events- coldest temperature mid 30s
2001: 3 events
2002: 4 events
2003: 4 events
2004: 0 events
2005: 0 events
2006: 1 event
2007: 0 events
2008: 0 events
2009: None so far

I remember seeing frost several times in central Florida back in the early 2000s. There was even a frost in 2002 that managed to cover my entire area in a blanket of white, including the rooftops. I was located just NE of Orlando during that event and experienced a low of 23F (MCO hit 25F). By Orlando standards, it was COLD!

Recent years have been less favorable for frosts and freezes into Florida though. Besides a couple of notable events here and there, the region has been generally spared any of the more severe winter weather episodes it has seen in years past.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here is the long-range from accuweather for Saint Petersburg, it
is "Colder" than the National Weather Service Forecast:
Partly sunnyLow: 61 °FHigh: 75 °F
Monday, Jan 5 Mostly sunny and warmLow: 63 °FHigh: 78 °F

Tuesday, Jan 6 Mild with clouds and sunLow: 63 °FHigh: 76 °F

Wednesday, Jan 7 Some sun, t-storms possibleLow: 55 °FHigh: 70 °

Thursday, Jan 8More Details Bright and sunnyLow: 55 °FHigh: 67 °F

Friday, Jan 9More Details Sunny and beautifulLow: 57 °FHigh: 70 °F

Saturday, Jan 10More Details Mostly sunnyLow: 55 °FHigh: 67 °F

Sunday, Jan 11More Details Partly sunnyLow: 43 °FHigh: 62 °F

Monday, Jan 12More Details Partly sunnyLow: 44 °FHigh: 59 °F

Tuesday, Jan 13More Details Clouds and sun with a showerLow: 47 °FHigh: 59 °F

Wednesday, Jan 14More Details Sunny to partly cloudyLow: 54 °FHigh: 62 °F

Thursday, Jan 15More Details Sunshine and some cloudsLow: 56 °FHigh: 70 °F

Friday, Jan 16More Details Sun and some cloudsLow: 52 °FHigh: 69 °F

Saturday, Jan 17More Details SunshineLow: 52 °FHigh: 67 °F

Sunday, Jan 18More Details SunshineLow: 56 °FHigh: 68 °F

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/saint- ... 1&metric=0

[jinftl]

Not always a direct correlation between alaska winter weather and florida...plus you need to factor in the signigicant moderation that takes place as even -50 deg weather at 65 deg north latitude moves south to 30 deg latitude. Even Fairbanks is forecast to moderate some by the end of the week....from -50 to -20....that is a 30 deg change even if it is still frigid...and it seasonable for that area.

Daytime temps in the high 60s in central florida could very well be the modified version of that....it is alot cooler than the weather has been.

I wonder if the next 10 days will feature a 40 degree morning.
Looking at accuweather long-range, it shows some
low 40s for Saint Petersburg between days 6-10,
we'll see how that plays out.

One would think with that 50 below zero air over Fairbanks
and Canada that at some point the whole arctic air mass
would plunge all the way down into the US and into Florida.
Hasn't happened yet. But with the pattern change to
troughiness in the east it might happen during the middle
part of this month.

[Portastorm]

Today's 0z Euro and 0z Canadian both have a very cold look for the nation's midsection and southern Plains by 240 hours. The 0z GFS had the trough centered further east but the 12z run seems to be more along the lines of the aforementioned models.

The Euro:



The Canadian:

[Ed Mahmoud]

COLDEST 10 DAYS OF THE CENTURY IN THE EAST?


Possible, per JB's latest column update.



Matching GFS 2 meter temp in NYC is (using the handy AccuWx PPV site) -17.6 ºC. That is ZERO Farenheit.

[cheezyWXguy]

COLDEST 10 DAYS OF THE CENTURY IN THE EAST?


Possible, per JB's latest column update.



Matching GFS 2 meter temp in NYC is (using the handy AccuWx PPV site) -17.6 ºC. That is ZERO Farenheit.

those are 850 temps

[Extremeweatherguy]

COLDEST 10 DAYS OF THE CENTURY IN THE EAST?


Possible, per JB's latest column update.

[img]image clipped[/img]

Matching GFS 2 meter temp in NYC is (using the handy AccuWx PPV site) -17.6 ºC. That is ZERO Farenheit.

those are 850 temps

2 meter temperatures are as cold, or even slightly colder, than the 850mb temperatures...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

COLDEST 10 DAYS OF THE CENTURY IN THE EAST?


Possible, per JB's latest column update.



Matching GFS 2 meter temp in NYC is (using the handy AccuWx PPV site) -17.6 ºC. That is ZERO Farenheit.

those are 850 temps

I know that. But thanks to my handy AccuWeather PPV weather, I can also see the 2 meter temps.

As a small clue, not even my eye-balls are so sensitive and calibrated that they can read temperatures to the decimal point off a gif image on the NCEP web site.

[Brent]

COLDEST 10 DAYS OF THE CENTURY IN THE EAST?


Possible, per JB's latest column update.



Matching GFS 2 meter temp in NYC is (using the handy AccuWx PPV site) -17.6 ºC. That is ZERO Farenheit.

I'm not impressed, it's barely below 0 C here. Brutally cold in the NE yeah but not down here. A true eastern arctic outbreak would have it down to 0 C well into Florida.