Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

Euro says DFW needs a first 80 degree watch for next Tuesday

Stupid PNA. All the cold looks to go towards the Great Lakes and NE.

I'm in the Great Lakes, I'd give all of Texas our cold if I could

Hey now, send the snow my way first.

[Ntxw]

It is no secret it likely is connected to the record MJO into P6, the SOI crash. The question now is how much cold will be around, or will it come south when the wetter pattern arrives.

[orangeblood]

Holy Blow Torch!! Canadian and European ENS are going towards what would be probably be the warmest period of winter during Mid-Feb. Their forecasts look like Phase 6 so not sure if I'm buying it...GEFS looks a little more reasonable with a Phase 8 going into 1 look.

Wxman57 - Any thoughts on the mid-month pattern you've been touting ? Does the Euro ENS change your thinking in any way ?

[srainhoutx]

MJO set a record yesterday for the Highest Amplitude in Phase 6 since 1979.

[srainhoutx]

Planetary Wave 2 Pattern detected near mid February suggesting not only a PV split, but a possible SSW event as well. Carefully watch the teleconnection indices around Day 7 (next week). The Northern Hemispheric Pattern looks ready for a Major Shakeup. Expect a lot of volatility in the guidance.

[wxman57]

Holy Blow Torch!! Canadian and European ENS are going towards what would be probably be the warmest period of winter during Mid-Feb. Their forecasts look like Phase 6 so not sure if I'm buying it...GEFS looks a little more reasonable with a Phase 8 going into 1 look.

Wxman57 - Any thoughts on the mid-month pattern you've been touting ? Does the Euro ENS change your thinking in any way ?

I think I may have overdone it by my tinkering with the jet stream to get those NE TX folks some snow. I seem to have caused a giant Polar vortex to develop north of Hudson Bay. Once formed, these vortices can take quite a while to go away. The Polar vortex may make it difficult for us to get much more than a glancing blow of the really cold air this month. I'm not sure we'll see any additional winter weather in Texas. I'll keep working on it. Perhaps I can effect a change in the flow pattern.

[Yukon Cornelius]

[hamburgerman7070]

Like srainhoustx alluded to, Judah Cohen mentioned about this pv split. He said the euro and Canadian are showing this also. Not sure how these work out. It's been a while since we seen one. Does anyone know?

[aggiecutter]

My analog for this winter was December of 2000. This is coming to fruition. 3 weeks of intense winter in the southern plains and then nothing.

[orangeblood]

Planetary Wave 2 Pattern detected near mid February suggesting not only a PV split, but a possible SSW event as well. Carefully watch the teleconnection indices around Day 7 (next week). The Northern Hemispheric Pattern looks ready for a Major Shakeup. Expect a lot of volatility in the guidance.

Very interesting...still hope there will enough cold air around NA by that point

To illustrate what srainhoutx mentioned

According to the GFS, the 10 MB Level goes from this


To possible this by mid-month, assuming a bit of lag time and end of Feb might be our best shot

[orangeblood]

If the PV splits, this will more than likely cause the AO to tank. A negative AO during Feb and March typically look very favorable for cold.... wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet

Feb - AO


March - AO

[hamburgerman7070]

Orangeblood, do you pay attention to Judah Cohen? He acting like all three models showing it. Also, could the nao go negative also? That's been missing. We all are trying to remain optimistic.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is why you dont let yourself be swung by a couple model runs in one direction or the other. The cold has been around all winter and with continued and even improved blocking it will stay around. And now the tropics may align for us to also have moisture at this time. There is a reason that mid Feb is our most snowy time period in northern Texas.

[orangeblood]

This is why you dont let yourself be swung by a couple model runs in one direction or the other. The cold has been around all winter and with continued and even improved blocking it will stay around. And now the tropics may align for us to also have moisture at this time. There is a reason that mid Feb is our most snowy time period in northern Texas.

The threat that the cold could leave our side of the globe is still there, it's happened in several winters of the past and could happen again.

[South Texas Storms]

This is why you dont let yourself be swung by a couple model runs in one direction or the other. The cold has been around all winter and with continued and even improved blocking it will stay around. And now the tropics may align for us to also have moisture at this time. There is a reason that mid Feb is our most snowy time period in northern Texas.

The threat that the cold could leave our side of the globe is still there, it's happened in several winters of the past and could happen again.

Yep I think that's the main concern right now. It does look like the moisture will return in the next few weeks, but will the cold be here as well?

[Ralph's Weather]

This is why you dont let yourself be swung by a couple model runs in one direction or the other. The cold has been around all winter and with continued and even improved blocking it will stay around. And now the tropics may align for us to also have moisture at this time. There is a reason that mid Feb is our most snowy time period in northern Texas.

The threat that the cold could leave our side of the globe is still there, it's happened in several winters of the past and could happen again.

Anything from a slightly warm to a cold Feb is on the table. I do like the prospects of at least near normal precip though.

[bubba hotep]

Daily SOI is finally crashing today at -11. May hit -20s or more with Tahiti pressures falling quickly. We spent most of January positive after mostly negatives in December. There is a correlation in winter to qpf/precipitation events to -SOI crashes. Lag effect will have to wait 7-10 days

Combine that with rising AAM and growing WWB snd things start looking kind of ninoish.

As to the SSW/polar vortex split chatter, amped up P7 MJO can be a strong indicator of a coming event. However, splits are hard to forecast and don't always result in cold for us.

In the realm of possibilities, pattern takes on a wetter nino look with enhanced cold provided by SSW/vortex split. Or dry warm nina like February...

[South Texas Storms]

How about the 12z Canadian to cheer up the mood in here? Trough digs into Mexico next weekend bringing frozen precip to north TX and widespread beneficial rainfall to south and central TX.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 500mb chart looks really good for Texas at the end of the Canadian.

[WeatherGuesser]

If this comes to fruition and there is still cold air hanging around North America, the 2nd half of Feb (similar to 2015) could be our best shot. The worrisome aspect of that is the cold ?, as models are forecasting majority of this bitter cold to escape out across the Northern Atlantic

Cold = BAD

Cold going somewhere else = GOOD

Nothing worrisome about cold going away.