Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Cpv17]

One thing I’m noticing is that the Barney colors never really make it down to Texas and stay locked up N of here. Not sure if that will verify though.

[Stratton23]

Thats not gonna happen in a -AO/-EPO/-NAO/-WPO pattern with a - PNA that will be weakening some and the MJO in a prime cold position (8/1 and 2), those barney colors will make it into texas, its just the typical global models trying to hold back the arctic air against the se ridge, that definitely isnt happening

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 too early to tell you how cold, but the potential is certainly their for this pattern to deliver even colder air than what we saw in january, all of the teleconnections are lining up perfectly, one big difference between this pattern and january, is that this pattern is going to feature a strong -NAO block, that cold air is not moving out fast once it arrives

That’s what I thought, but wasn’t sure. We did leave up our winter preps because I felt after the snow event we would get an ice storm in February. I say bring the frigid air!!!

[Sambucol2024]

What’s the approximate timing the cold air makes it down to the Houston area?

[Stratton23]

Timing of the arctic air looks to be around valentines day, give or take a day since arctic air tends to travel south faster than what models predict , still alot of uncertainty in regards to how cold and if any precipitation will be around, but i am growing pretty confident that we are going to get pretty cold in texas

[Ntxw]

This pattern is more classic La Nina type outbreak. It's different than January which was run by an eastern trough, now it will be western-central trough. I-40 I'd bet will cash in on this.

[TomballEd]

The potential is there with such a massive ridge over Alaska/cross polar flow. I'll be more interested this time next week. Especially when it just looks like a freeze w/o significant winter weather. That can change to.

[TomballEd]

The potential is there with such a massive ridge over Alaska/cross polar flow. I'll be more interested this time next week. Especially when it just looks like a freeze w/o significant winter weather. That can change to.

12Z GFS op at 384 hours has winter precip close enough to my house that the actual cold air would be here. Again, interesting, fun, like a 930 mb hurricane hitting Miami in 16 days in August. But probably not what will happen.

[Stratton23]

When you have such a deep trough on the EPS thats digging SW with really impressive blocking over the top, that just screams a massive winter storm somewhere in texas or even the entire state, that trough position looks early similar to february 2021, heck that entire 500 mb height pattern on the EPS is very identical

[Brent]

Euro has us hitting 80 next Saturday before there's 3 inches of snow

Don't see that modeled much

[Cpv17]

When you have such a deep trough on the EPS thats digging SW with really impressive blocking over the top, that just screams a massive winter storm somewhere in texas or even the entire state, that trough position looks early similar to february 2021, heck that entire 500 mb height pattern on the EPS is very identical

I don’t think the models yet have a grip on the true extent of the Artic air. If that blocking is true then I would expect the models to trend colder.

I also have a really hard time believing that the coldest it gets here is the mid 30’s (12z Euro) over the next couple weeks. Like I said earlier, the models just aren’t really bringing much cold air south yet.

[CaptinCrunch]

This pattern will punch the cold air deep into Texas, I don't see it being a Arctic airmass that pushes further south than say Austin. Most February Arctic highs generally affect the northern half of the state. I'm looking at Valentine's Day and after for something to happen.

Also as ENSO natural looks to dominate well into summer I'm expecting a summer that is more mild with more rain chances than what we seen the last couple of Summers.

[Stratton23]

CaptinCrunch na, this kind of pattern is going to drive the arctic air all the way down into mexico, its not going to stop in central texas

[Cpv17]

CaptinCrunch na, this kind of pattern is going to drive the arctic air all the way down into mexico, its not going to stop in central texas

Right now the models aren’t really indicating that though. I tend to agree with you though that they will come around, but right now the brunt of the cold air stays over the high and central plains and gets shunted off east towards the Midwest.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 trust me, its not going to get hung up ( mostly) obviously its difficult to get the real big below 0 temperatures into texas, but it happened in 2021 with a very similar setup to what we have now, the CMC shows the cold driving right into texas, notice how you already have 20’s 10’s and even some single digits in the pan handle, the teleconnections + MJO in the colder phases will drive that deep down into south texas, models always have difficulty with the SW flow trying to push back the arctic air, the PNA is still negative so the cold air cant just dive southeast, it has to go south first, maybe im wrong, but I think its coming due south, just mainly because of the very favorable teleconnections and mjo phases, give it a few days and i bet the models come around

[Tammie]

Bastardi on X
“I expect more major cold challenges for Texas Feb 11-20 as this is the classic dam bursting pattern ( cumulative cold pushes, then overwhelms as western negative moves out) that is part and parcel of the "Sistine Chapel Pattern) Think snow and.or ice will show up again to I-10. Another freeze for the valley on the table before this is over IMO”

[Stratton23]

Just my opinion though and I could be wrong , but when you see all that cold air building on the CMC/ Euro models, I would fint it extremely difficult to believe that the brunt of that just slides off to the east, especially with a -NAO and a -PNA ridge, think we will see adjustments more southwards over the next week in models

[Tammie]

Bastardi on X
“I expect more major cold challenges for Texas Feb 11-20 as this is the classic dam bursting pattern ( cumulative cold pushes, then overwhelms as western negative moves out) that is part and parcel of the "Sistine Chapel Pattern) Think snow and.or ice will show up again to I-10. Another freeze for the valley on the table before this is over IMO”

I had to google it LOL!
“Sistine Chapel pattern reaching for a heavenly realm ( getting ready for church so you see what the inspiration is) for lovers of winter as twin negatives under the blocks reach for each other and cold and stormy takes over for US and Europe”

[gpsnowman]

I'm trying not to get my hopes up only to be disappointed but I can't help myself. I want snow and it better snow.

[gpsnowman]

Bastardi on X
“I expect more major cold challenges for Texas Feb 11-20 as this is the classic dam bursting pattern ( cumulative cold pushes, then overwhelms as western negative moves out) that is part and parcel of the "Sistine Chapel Pattern) Think snow and.or ice will show up again to I-10. Another freeze for the valley on the table before this is over IMO”

Feb 11-20. Those dates sound awfully familiar. Hmmmmm.