Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

End of the Tulsa AFD

Longer range guidance
shows potential for a stronger Arctic intrusion that bears
watching in the 10-14 day period across the Southern and Central
Plains.

[Stratton23]

00z CMC gets very close to a winter storm in central texas, cold run, GFS is still having problems even seeing the cold and is delayed several days, but it eventually unloads the motherload

[Stratton23]

Euro is showing a very active storm track interacting with the cold air, very interesting

[Tammie]

From BAM Weather this morning:
“Very likely that the upcoming period will be among the most negative with the NAO/AO in February in the last 10+ years (2013 & 2010 most recent).

With plenty of cold air and southeast ridge influence - the gradient for snow potential doesn't get much better especially for the interior NE US.”

[snownado]

Record high of 84*F could in jeopardy today at DFW.

What a flip!

[Tammie]

“This is fascinating.

I hope you like Winter.

There is A LOT of it left to come.”

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188640415 ... J0be-HnN-w

[orangeblood]

From BAM Weather this morning:
“Very likely that the upcoming period will be among the most negative with the NAO/AO in February in the last 10+ years (2013 & 2010 most recent).

With plenty of cold air and southeast ridge influence - the gradient for snow potential doesn't get much better especially for the interior NE US.”

Agreed, it doesn't get much better than this for winter weather for a big part of the country (southeast US the exception). Looks long lasting too!

Check out the Omega Block over Alaska, that's a 5 day average

[Yukon Cornelius]

[cajungal]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/SwzYgBTQ/IMG-0121.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/7Nb02Qs5/IMG-0122.jpg [/url]

So doesn’t look like the cold reaches me in SE Louisiana and we will continue spring like.

[Stratton23]

Patience lol, the cold will over take in time, its going to be a battle first but eventually that Arctic air is going to win out

[Portastorm]

From BAM Weather this morning:
“Very likely that the upcoming period will be among the most negative with the NAO/AO in February in the last 10+ years (2013 & 2010 most recent).

With plenty of cold air and southeast ridge influence - the gradient for snow potential doesn't get much better especially for the interior NE US.”

Agreed, it doesn't get much better than this for winter weather for a big part of the country (southeast US the exception). Looks long lasting too!

Check out the Omega Block over Alaska, that's a 5 day average

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_5day/1738540800/1739707200-0drejTCHGaQ.png

Yep. The Euro ensemble as well as the latest operational runs are ripe with wintry weather possibilities for portions of Texas. I don't know if we'll be cold enough down here in South Central TX to get it on that fun but at least the northwestern 1/2 half of the state looks prime for it. Maybe the Winter of 2024-25 will go out with a showstopper period for us!

[Cpv17]

Really hoping this push of Artic air goes all the way down to Mexico. Summer will be here shortly.

[HockeyTx82]

Really hoping this push of Artic air goes all the way down to Mexico. Summer will be here shortly.

https://youtu.be/rnEB2F_v_cE?feature=shared

[wxman57]

I am not concerned for Houston. My walls will hold, and I've given my pilot the month off since he won't be needed to evacuate me to Australia. Careful believing the 14-16 day 00Z GFS.

[HockeyTx82]

I am not concerned for Houston. My walls will hold, and I've given my pilot the month off since he won't be needed to evacuate me to Australia. Careful believing the 14-16 day 00Z GFS.

See my above YouTube video, somehow I feel that's your other alter ego.

[Brent]

80 degrees in the Panhandle at 11am wow

This cold is gonna have to be insane to offset this

Well the 0z Euro did have 6 inches of snow next week

[orangeblood]

80 degrees in the Panhandle at 11am wow

This cold is gonna have to be insane to offset this

Well the 0z Euro did have 6 inches of snow next week

More below normal in Montana than it is above normal in panhandle right now. The arctic cold is coming, just a matter of snow cover (like most events) for this to go to the extreme.

[Ntxw]

PNA starting to rear its head again.

[wxman22]

I’m not sure yet if we will get colder than the last outbreak here. ( we got down to 10F degrees here) And the arctic air may not penetrate deep into the state this time.But the upcoming pattern sure looks good for winter storms in the northern half of the state. With a large trough west and a SE ridge to the east. Probably the best setup I’ve seen this season so far up here for a winterstorm.

[Stratton23]

Im not buying the Euro OP trying to bring back a + PNA, doesnt really seem like the - PNA is going away anytime soon, that being said we dont want the PNA going too negative, very complex forecast ahead with alot of competing factors at play, the door is certainly their for this to be a model bust and the cold air overwhelms nearly the entire lower 48, but their is also the possibility that models bust the other way and its ends up staying warm, but that doesnt seem like a likely scenario right now