Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CajunMama]

I think I will stick around also. This forum is just too good, not only for winter but for other seasons as well. My winter experience was enhanced greatly paying attention these pages over the past couple of months.
For what it's worth the Farmers Almanac predicts a late season blizzard for the Southern Plains March 24-27. Stranger things have happened. Mid week snow then warm is good!

Agreed. With what I've learned here about winter, I want to see my knowledge about spring storms & the tropics as well increase.

I'll still stick around. I rely on you guys more than others I see and read. And I've learned so much. I hope you can put up with my questions.

Yes! Please stick around. Join us in off topic, sports, weather and tropics! We're here 365 24/7!

[Portastorm]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

Kinda ironic to find yourself rooting AGAINST a winter weather event, isn't it?!

Yeah, but it is only because I know what ice does. & I have a Doctor's Appointment & Registration & Inspection to do on my car that day. If ice occurs, I will accomplish none of that. I'm all for snow, but I don't get the feeling that that's what we're talking about for Central TX.

Well, let's hope wxman57's thoughts verify and we don't have much of anything post front to worry about. Meanwhile, where are all the Dallas folks? Sick of snow already? I saw a 12z GFS meteogram which showed 3-4 inches of snow for the Big D!

[orangeblood]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

Yep, even the latest SREF members have the freezing line into Austin around 7am on Wednesday with a little less than a tenth of an inch falling after that time period. Enough to cause some impacts across that region.

[DonWrk]

Why is areas just north of the Red River under Winter Storm Warnings but areas like Tulsa are still under Winter Storm Watches? Even though the forecast for them is heavy snow?

[benrayrog]

Any thoughts on what we may be looking at here in East Texas near Tyler?

[Texas Snowman]

Heavier snow amounts not too far north of Red River now as per Oklahoma City's latest graphic.

[gpsnowman]

Right here Portastorm. Looks like 3-4 inches? Sounds good to me. Still early Feb but warmth will be here soon enough. Have lots of warm weather house plans to do but one more snow storm would not hurt. It is so nice to look at when it is falling. We have been lucky here in DFW the last couple of winters. Some winters we dont see squat so I will take what I can get!

[WeatherDuck]

Where is the cold front currently? Is it ahead of schedule?

[Portastorm]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

Yep, even the latest SREF members have the freezing line into Austin around 7am on Wednesday with a little less than a tenth of an inch falling after that time period. Enough to cause some impacts across that region.

Indeed. Just a "trace" of freezing drizzle last Thursday night resulted in multiple accidents on area roadways including two fatalities.

[ndale]

Unfortunately EWX has not written a mid-morning AFD nor have they issued a forecast since 3:30 am. I was hoping to see their thoughts on the 6z and 12z cycle of runs but oh well.

On my point forecast for Pflugerville, the last update shows no freezing rain, just rain and/or sleet but they don't seem to be in any hurry to update the area forecast.

[orangeblood]

Kinda ironic to find yourself rooting AGAINST a winter weather event, isn't it?! [/quote]

Yeah, but it is only because I know what ice does. & I have a Doctor's Appointment & Registration & Inspection to do on my car that day. If ice occurs, I will accomplish none of that. I'm all for snow, but I don't get the feeling that that's what we're talking about for Central TX.[/quote]

Well, let's hope wxman57's thoughts verify and we don't have much of anything post front to worry about. Meanwhile, where are all the Dallas folks? Sick of snow already? I saw a 12z GFS meteogram which showed 3-4 inches of snow for the Big D![/quote]

Not sure where everyone went...this is starting to resemble last Tuesday's winter storm but with a little more frozen precip accompanying this storm. It appears this one might create more impacts from the metroplex and points northeast than last weeks.

[downsouthman1]

Not sure where everyone went...this is starting to resemble last Tuesday's winter storm but with a little more frozen precip accompanying this storm. It appears this one might create more impacts from the metroplex and points northeast than last weeks.

Ya; & for us further south, i think we're gonna be sliding all over the placed getting into to our cars from the passenger side, waiting 20-30 minutes for it to thaw the windows, only to find that the roads are completely glazed.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

DAYS 2/3...

...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEAST...

VIGOROUS SHRTWV ENERGY CURRENTLY ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE NORTHWEST
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG AGGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE THEN DEAMPLIFYING WHILE
EJECTING EWD OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...GULF COAST REGION AND THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED AND THU AS THE ENERGY ENTERS INCREASINGLY
STG AND RATHER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z NAM IS STRONGER THAN
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF SOLNS WITH THE ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE
SRN TIER OF THE NATION. THE 12Z GFS HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE TOO
SUPPRESSED/SHEARED BY DAY 3/THU AS THE SYS MOVES INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST. SO HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN...WHICH IS STILL RATHER SUPPRESSED AND SHEARED...WITH THE
00Z/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET SOLNS MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWED REGARDING
QPF DETAILS.

NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING A SWATH OF MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW TO
SURGE SWD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
CONNECTION WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW LVL
UPSLOPE FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER
THE CNTRL AND ESP E FACING SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
PD. BY LATER WED...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD OUT
INTO THE S CNTRL PLAINS AND ESP THE RED RIVER VLY AS A BAND OF
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE COUPLES WITH DIV FLOW
ALOFT FOR A SWATH OF ENHANCED UVVS. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
GRADUALLY INCREASING SRLY GULF OF MEXICO MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE
ENERGY AS WELL WHICH WILL PROMOTE GRADUALLY INCREASING PCPN RATES
OUT ACRS CNTRL/NRN TX AND INTO MUCH OF OK. ON THU...EXPECT THE SYS
TO AGAIN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE
GFS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A STREAK OF LGT WAA AND UPR JET ENHANCED
PCPN TO SPREAD THROUGH THE LWR MS/TN VLYS AND ALL THE WAY INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN MID-ATL BY LATE THU. SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME OF THIS TO FALL AS SNOW. PLS SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WX DESK PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Ntxw]

Not sure where everyone went...this is starting to resemble last Tuesday's winter storm but with a little more frozen precip accompanying this storm. It appears this one might create more impacts from the metroplex and points northeast than last weeks.

I'm betting they're all riding the NAM. NAM has been garbage on digging troughs. It did a little better with Friday's system but that was a little easier since cold air was already in place. Even that, it was revising it's forecast as the event was happening. Models this year have lived up to the typical stereotype.

[DentonGal]

Kinda ironic to find yourself rooting AGAINST a winter weather event, isn't it?!

Yeah, but it is only because I know what ice does. & I have a Doctor's Appointment & Registration & Inspection to do on my car that day. If ice occurs, I will accomplish none of that. I'm all for snow, but I don't get the feeling that that's what we're talking about for Central TX.[/quote]

Well, let's hope wxman57's thoughts verify and we don't have much of anything post front to worry about. Meanwhile, where are all the Dallas folks? Sick of snow already? I saw a 12z GFS meteogram which showed 3-4 inches of snow for the Big D![/quote]

Not sure where everyone went...this is starting to resemble last Tuesday's winter storm but with a little more frozen precip accompanying this storm. It appears this one might create more impacts from the metroplex and points northeast than last weeks.[/quote]

We're still here, and I'm dying to know what it's looking like in the Denton area; howver, I didn't want to disrupt the flow of all the southern posts. I figured someone would ask a question sooner or later about DFW. Guess that will be me...What's it's looking like for DFW and the northern counties?

[Portastorm]

EWX just released their afternoon AFD ... here's a snippet of interest:

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MIXED BAG. FORECAST ISSUES WEDNESDAY ARE PCPN
TYPE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ATTM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION SO THE PCPN WILL BE SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO END BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Portastorm comment: "Oh good, we might get to play the 'Everyone Go Home at the Same Time on Icy Roads Game' "

[downsouthman1]

EWX just released their afternoon AFD ... here's a snippet of interest:

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MIXED BAG. FORECAST ISSUES WEDNESDAY ARE PCPN
TYPE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ATTM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION SO THE PCPN WILL BE SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO END BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Portastorm comment: "Oh good, we might get to play the 'Everyone Go Home at the Same Time on Icy Roads Game' "

Great #%(&%!!! (extremely sarcastic). Maybe I should just drive off a bridge tonight on my way home, so I'll still be in the hospital on Wednesday, so I don't wreck that day.

[orangeblood]

I'm thinking anywhere from 3-6 inches across the metroplex with isolated higher amounts the further north and northeast you are. There might be a thin layer of sleet/freezing rain mix below this layer of snow, which could cause more issues than just plain snowpacked roadways.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

Even HGX is sticking with a chance of freezing precip in Northern zones (little/no accumulation)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES LATE MORNING/MID DAY AND REACHING THE COAST LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RAPIDLY DROP DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA
AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS BARELY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES SW
PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY AND ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
REST OF REGION AHEAD OF FRONT RUNNING IN THE 40S AND 50S
(DEWPOINTS). SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFTING) WEDNESDAY. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
REMAINING POSITIVE. WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SLEET (LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS) FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING MID AND
LATE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWFA WITH
REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S.

[Tejas89]

If local mets are backing off in DFW, NWS is taking the opposite road for once..

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WARMED UP A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55
DEGREES AND WE`LL LIKELY SEE THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE QUICK RETURN OF S/SE WINDS BY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. FIRST SHORTWAVE SEEN DRIVING
SE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

RAPID CHANGES STILL LOOK TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT BY LATE EVENING
AND AFTER...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIRMASS DOWN HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NW TX/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THE NE
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE AN INITIAL BACKDOOR OF CURRENT AIRMASS
STILL RESIDING OVER THE OZARKS AND TN VALLEY AND WILL BE JUST
REINFORCED MAINLY AS ARCTIC AIRMASS RACES IN FROM THE NNW AND
REACHES SE COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...UPPER
ENERGY NOW DEEPENING OVER NW STATES/WRN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN LIFT ESE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO USE ISALLOBARIC
VERTICAL MOTIONS TO QUICKLY SATURATE/COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BY 12Z/DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
N/NW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MID
MORNING TO MIDDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...CANTON
LINE. DOWN SOUTH...THE TRANSITION WILL LIKELY OCCUR MORE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GOING TO A RAIN/SLEET
/SNOW MIX BY MIDDAY...THEN LIKELY JUST SLEET OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO 3-5 ALONG RED RIVER
VALLEY...TO 2-4 INCHES ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR...TO 1-3 JUST SOUTH OF
I-20 WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE.

THE ONLY MODEL THAT WAS SLOWER AND THE OUTLIER WAS THE NAM12 WITH
DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE WHICH WOULD SLOW THE
TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. ALSO IT SHOWS STRONGER SWLY FLOW/WAA AT 850
MB ABOVE THE DEEPENING ARCTIC INVERSION. THIS SOLUTION WAS MAINLY
THROWN OUT BY NWS OFFICES DUE TO 2 REASONS. 1. RARELY DOES DEEP
CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR ALONG LEADING EDGES OF ARCTIC AIR DUE TO THE
INABILITY TO MIX DEEPLY AND QUICKLY. 2. IT WAS FELT THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WOULD HELP SURGE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...ALONG WITH
THE JUST PURE DENSE PROPERTIES OF THE AIRMASS. THUS...A BLEND OF
THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED IN THIS FORECAST WITH A FASTER TRANSITION
AND COLUMN COOLING AS THE SYSTEM AND DEEP LIFT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL TOP-DOWN DRYING
OF THE COLUMN AND LOSS OF DENDRITIC SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS...THUS
SNOW WILL LIKELY TURN TO FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING DUE TO THIS PROCESS. HAVE LOWER BOTH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE`LL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR IN A BIT LONGER
AND WITH MODEL TRENDS TO SCOUR EVEN THE SHALLOWEST OF THESE
AIRMASSES TOO QUICKLY. AFTERWARD...A QUICK WARM UP BY FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES W/SWLY AND SCOURS OUT THIS
AIRMASS...WHICH IS MORE SHALLOW THAN LAST WEEK`S ARCTIC AIR WHICH
HUNG AROUND SEVERAL DAYS.