Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

You can already see that a supressed solution is coming via the 12Z GFS. The NAM shifts everything S in CA and it appears the GFS is following the trend as well.

Yep srainhoutx, even through 78 hrs, the 12z GFS is looking a lot like its 0z run. I like the trend!

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1031 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

VALID FEB 19/1200 UTC THRU FEB 23/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM EVALUATION

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS ITS SOLUTION.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE CNTRL PLAINS...

SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PREDICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE COMPARABLE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM...WITH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W. GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
BY SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY DETAIL DIFFERENCES TO CONSIDER.

...UPPER LOW REACHING S. CALIFORNIA SAT...
...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE S. PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY
SUN/MON...

THE NAM HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH REACHING
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA FROM 24 HRS AGO AND NOW SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH SAT NGT. LATER AS THE LOW REACHES THE PLAINS...BECAUSE THE
GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N.
ROCKIES...IT PRODUCES STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
DOWNSTREAM...
THUS CAUSING THE GFS TO PRODUCE A WEAKER AND GENERALLY MORE
SUPPRESSED SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS/MID/WEST/OHIO
VALLEY LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE NAM IS STRONGER AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ECMWF TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THESE
REGIONS...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR IN SPEED.

...UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE N. ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN SAT-MON...

THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF IN ALLOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW
TO FORM OVER IDAHO BY SATURDAY THEN DRIFT WESTWARD BENEATH THE
WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER HIGH BEFORE MERGING WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW
THAT REACHES N. CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM
MAINTAINING A STRONGER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AND
MOVING IT MORE SOUTHWARD BY 84 HRS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE 06Z GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE EASTWARD WITH THE LOW
FORMING OVER IDAHO AND INCORPORATES LITTLE IF ANY OF THE LOW
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA. THE GFS ALSO SPLITS THE WEAK LOW INTO TWO
COMPONENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MOST SOUTHWARD COMPONENT
REACHING ARIZONA BY LATE MONDAY.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

JAMES

[Ntxw]

Someone is about to get blasted via the GFS...oh the agony! *hints at Portastorm*

[Nederlander]

looking slightly wetter than the previous run through 90 hrs.. this requires so much patience lol

[Portastorm]

Someone is about to get blasted via the GFS...oh the agony! *hints at Portastorm*

Dude ... if I get a snowmageddon next week, everyone's invited to my house for a big party!! Of course, I'll have to run this idea past HQ (the wife) first.

(Portastorm eagerly awaiting more of the 12z GFS run)

[Ntxw]

Doesn't look too different from 0z. We now have a stretch of runs to use as somewhat consistency! Not Quite snowmageddon for Austin, but enough to make your winter. Of course it could change between now and then . Area between DFW to Waco looks prime from the latest GFS runs.

[srainhoutx]

PNA holds...

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I totally agree guys ... it looks A LOT like the 0z run.

I would guess the area from Midland/Odessa southeast to San Antonio, northeast to Houston's northern 'burbs up to Tyler and back west to Midland/Odessa all would see at least some wintry precip if this verifies.

[Nederlander]

very nice consistency with the few runs.. would like to see the ECMWF jump on board and push this thing a little further south..

[Ntxw]

very nice consistency with the few runs.. would like to see the ECMWF jump on board and push this thing a little further south..

I'm rootin for ya. I think the best chance for that would be a gulf low\trough forming off the Texas coast. This run doesn't quite show that yet. Who knows it could happen!

[srainhoutx]

Looks mighty chilly as well behind the storm. Triple phaser is not out of the question for points E of TX via the GFS.

[WacoWx]

Shoot, Hillsboro is just a hop skip and a jump away. but then again, so is Austin. Portastorm, lets root for a HUGE storm centered over Salado so we both get in on the action!

[Portastorm]

Shoot, Hillsboro is just a hop skip and a jump away. but then again, so is Austin. Portastorm, lets root for a HUGE storm centered over Salado so we both get in on the action!

There you go WacoWx ... brilliant idea!

[Ntxw]

Looks mighty chilly as well behind the storm. Triple phaser is not out of the question for points E of TX via the GFS.

I bet JB is going to hammer away on this morning's vids with the GFS run using his idea of a Dallas to DC winter track/cold . His hype has been fed well this winter.

[Weatherdude20]

Shoot, Hillsboro is just a hop skip and a jump away. but then again, so is Austin. Portastorm, lets root for a HUGE storm centered over Salado so we both get in on the action!

Off topic, I visit Salado alot, cute town! Lol, I didn't know people knew much about it, much less refrenced it lol.

[Nederlander]

very nice consistency with the few runs.. would like to see the ECMWF jump on board and push this thing a little further south..

I'm rootin for ya. I think the best chance for that would be a gulf low\trough forming off the Texas coast. This run doesn't quite show that yet. Who knows it could happen!

Well im ok with the amount of moisture we have to work with.. cold air just isnt quite getting down.. this looks to be our best shot here in far se tx...


114 hr. (tue night/wed morning)

[wxman57]

Impulse weak? GFS has 3-4" of snow south of DFW on Tuesday. The GFS is plenty cold for snow on Tue, it is the other models that we are having problems (ECMWF/GEM).

I'm just looking at the 06Z GFS raw data that forecasts less than 0.1" liquid precip at DFW on Tue-Wed. 12Z run looks a good bit wetter up there.

[WacoWx]

Shoot, Hillsboro is just a hop skip and a jump away. but then again, so is Austin. Portastorm, lets root for a HUGE storm centered over Salado so we both get in on the action!

Off topic, I visit Salado alot, cute town! Lol, I didn't know people knew much about it, much less refrenced it lol.

yet still off-topic, GREAT beef jerky at Robertsons. Everyone should do themselves a favor and GET SOME!

[msstateguy83]

i jump on alot of bandwagons when i believe in a storm iam just not feeling this one yet
that far south GFS might be showing it but lets see if the ecmwf and a few more runs later into the weekend but the confidence for me just is not there yet for a major winter storm that far south at this point, that could change but we shall see dont give up though central texas folks it could happen!

[Ntxw]

I'd think a place like that would be famous for salads...road trip anyone?! Anything beef in Texas is king.

[wxman22]

12z GFS snow accumulations.