Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Is that 3-5 inches only snow? Or is sleet/ice included as well, because with nearly .5inches qpf falling, and almost all of it frozen, it seems like we'd accumulate closer to 4-7in of frozen precip around the denton/collin and northern dallas/tarrant counties.

If there is a transition period, it should be brief. Soundings indicating very cold air a loft. It should quickly change to snow.

[Ntxw]

Canadian finally coming back around to a much more reasonable scenario for North Texas.

I'm thinking the Red River valley will get nailed on this from what the models are showing. Canadian has the right idea. DFW and OKC will be the N/S edge of the heavy snow, with areas from Wichita falls, to Ardmore, to just west of Texarkana in the zone. CMC sure is falling in line.

Question.. Can it snow at 36 degrees? Ive seen it happen down here before. its almost the same set up like last year except they were actually forecasting it..

It can, I've heard of snow falling up to 40. But the air above will have to be very cold and the surface warm layer needs to be shallow so that the snowflakes don't have time to melt until ground contact. Usually when it's snowing at 33+ (at least in the south), there is usually a strong upper level low overhead cooling the column from top to bottom.

[Peanut432]

I hate to be "that guy" but what does the CMC show from WF back towards Childress TX?

[Ntxw]

I hate to be "that guy" but what does the CMC show from WF back towards Childress TX?

Childress is close to being right on the western edge of good snow on the CMC, not as much as places just to the east, say Lawton. WF gets good snows from it.

[Turtle]

It's already below freezing here now. Hopefully tomorrow's trends will be colder and more moisture.

[Peanut432]

[quote="Peanut432"]I hate to be "that guy" but what does the CMC show from WF back towards Childress TX?[/quote.

When you say good snow you mean 6+? Thanks your good people ntxw

[Ntxw]

When you say good snow you mean 6+? Thanks your good people ntxw

I don't really have numbers for the CMC. But as a consensus guess, I'd say 2-4 for Childress, 6+ to the Falls and 6+ to Lawton. Your area seems somewhere in between. Could be really close, a little bit this way or that way would up or lower numbers.

Edit: Ukmet met hasn't changed and is similar to previous runs and the GFS.

[jerryh421]

Canadian finally coming back around to a much more reasonable scenario for North Texas.

Question.. Can it snow at 36 degrees? Ive seen it happen down here before. its almost the same set up like last year except they were actually forecasting it..

It can, I've heard of snow falling up to 40. But the air above will have to be very cold and the surface warm layer needs to be shallow so that the snowflakes don't have time to melt until ground contact. Usually when it's snowing at 33+ (at least in the south), there is usually a strong upper level low overhead cooling the column from top to bottom.

Is this ULL strong enough??

[cheezyWXguy]

Is that 3-5 inches only snow? Or is sleet/ice included as well, because with nearly .5inches qpf falling, and almost all of it frozen, it seems like we'd accumulate closer to 4-7in of frozen precip around the denton/collin and northern dallas/tarrant counties.

If there is a transition period, it should be brief. Soundings indicating very cold air a loft. It should quickly change to snow.

Ok then Im confused how about .50 inches of QPF practically all frozen equates to only 3-5 inches when the snow ratio is likely to be somewhere between 11:1 and 14:1. That seems like it would more likely equate to 5 to 7 inches to me. Either Im reading something wrong or my multiplication skills are off.

[Ntxw]

Ok then Im confused how about .50 inches of QPF practically all frozen equates to only 3-5 inches when the snow ratio is likely to be somewhere between 11:1 and 14:1. That seems like it would more likely equate to 5 to 7 inches to me. Either Im reading something wrong or my multiplication skills are off.

Some of the 0.22 might be rain. Not sure how much. Again these time lapses can get difficult =/. There could be a period of 3 hours that is . Hard to tell. But based on what I am seeing for Oklahoma, there isn't a lot of ice in between, I could be wrong. It's just me calling a quick transition from rain to snow based on how cold the air is predicted to be aloft. There isn't really a warm nose at 850, everything looks even which usually indicates rain to snow.

[Brandon8181]

Now we wait till tomorrow when the models show totals go up drastically but the NWS doesn't buy it. So they end up predicting 3-5 inches and we get a foot.

I like your optimism . It looks like the thing might form a trowel and the red river valley will be zoned in on it. Whoever sits under one of those bands that persists after the main show(you know what are!) could get very lucky!

That would be me, Texas Snowman, and northtxboy

[orangeblood]

Is that 3-5 inches only snow? Or is sleet/ice included as well, because with nearly .5inches qpf falling, and almost all of it frozen, it seems like we'd accumulate closer to 4-7in of frozen precip around the denton/collin and northern dallas/tarrant counties.

If there is a transition period, it should be brief. Soundings indicating very cold air a loft. It should quickly change to snow.

Ok then Im confused how about .50 inches of QPF practically all frozen equates to only 3-5 inches when the snow ratio is likely to be somewhere between 11:1 and 14:1. That seems like it would more likely equate to 5 to 7 inches to me. Either Im reading something wrong or my multiplication skills are off.

It looks like anything falling before 2-3 am will be liquid in the metroplex, Which I think is around a tenth of an inch. The storm will really get going around daybreak for DFW and I'd say anywhere from 0.30 and 0.40 frozen precip for this storm...equating to 4-5 inch amounts for most of the area. And I still think the models are too low with their qpf so this amount could go up.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ok then Im confused how about .50 inches of QPF practically all frozen equates to only 3-5 inches when the snow ratio is likely to be somewhere between 11:1 and 14:1. That seems like it would more likely equate to 5 to 7 inches to me. Either Im reading something wrong or my multiplication skills are off.

Some of the 0.22 might be rain. Not sure how much. Again these time lapses can get difficult =/. There could be a period of 3 hours that is . Hard to tell. But based on what I am seeing for Oklahoma, there isn't a lot of ice in between, I could be wrong. It's just me calling a quick transition from rain to snow based on how cold the air is predicted to be aloft. There isn't really a warm nose at 850, everything looks even which usually indicates rain to snow.

0.22? It looks like between .4 and .5 for dfw and points north to me, with a .50+ area nw of there. Of course this is total precip, not spec. frozen precip, but just looking from frame to frame, it only looks like a few hundredths of it falls as rain.

00z GFS QPF amounts through 66hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[Ntxw]

0.22? It looks like between .4 and .5 for dfw and points north to me, with a .50+ area nw of there. Of course this is total precip, not spec. frozen precip, but just looking from frame to frame, it only looks like a few hundredths of it falls as rain.

00z GFS QPF amounts through 66hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

0.22 is during the transition period some will probably be rain, some frozen, not the entire qpf. 0.50 is the right guess.

Here is the text output for the GFS

WED 00Z 09-FEB 6.4 -1.0 1018 79 32 0.00 563 547
WED 06Z 09-FEB 4.1 2.0 1022 93 85 0.05 562 544
WED 12Z 09-FEB 0.0 -1.4 1026 95 98 0.22 560 540 <--0.22 is how much has fallen between 6z and 12z. 6z isn't frozen yet
WED 18Z 09-FEB -6.5 -5.2 1032 95 98 0.18 558 533
THU 00Z 10-FEB -5.6 -6.8 1032 95 56 0.05 557 533

[cheezyWXguy]

0.22? It looks like between .4 and .5 for dfw and points north to me, with a .50+ area nw of there. Of course this is total precip, not spec. frozen precip, but just looking from frame to frame, it only looks like a few hundredths of it falls as rain.

00z GFS QPF amounts through 66hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

0.22 is during the transition period some will probably be rain, some frozen, not the entire qpf. 0.50 is the right guess.

Ohhh, I see. I misunderstood your post hahah. Yeah I see what you're saying. I do wonder though if the cold air will make it here faster than the models predict as they often do, perhaps limiting the already small window of liquid precip even further. But we likely won't know until its already happening.

[orangeblood]

0.22? It looks like between .4 and .5 for dfw and points north to me, with a .50+ area nw of there. Of course this is total precip, not spec. frozen precip, but just looking from frame to frame, it only looks like a few hundredths of it falls as rain.

00z GFS QPF amounts through 66hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

0.22 is during the transition period some will probably be rain, some frozen, not the entire qpf. 0.50 is the right guess.

Ohhh, I see. I misunderstood your post hahah. Yeah I see what you're saying. I do wonder though if the cold air will make it here faster than the models predict as they often do, perhaps limiting the already small window of liquid precip even further. But we likely won't know until its already happening.

I'd be really surprised if the freezing line got to DFW before 1am

[cheezyWXguy]

0.22 is during the transition period some will probably be rain, some frozen, not the entire qpf. 0.50 is the right guess.

Ohhh, I see. I misunderstood your post hahah. Yeah I see what you're saying. I do wonder though if the cold air will make it here faster than the models predict as they often do, perhaps limiting the already small window of liquid precip even further. But we likely won't know until its already happening.

I'd be really surprised if the freezing line got to DFW before 1am

Well apparently the model shows us going below freezing between 6 and 12z, and isnt 6z about 4am CST? So I'd imagine it would be practical to assume its at least somewhat possible that the freezing line gets here earlier, but not unrealistically early like, as u said, before 1am. I know it probably sounds like I'm -removed- right now, but the thing that provokes this thought in my mind is that 1) the nws is forecasting the rain to mix with snow before midnight here (although only a slight chance of precip at that time) and 2) the models in numerous cases have delayed the entrance of arctic air into areas south of the red river by some period of time.

[Ntxw]

Euro for DFW: 0.02 rain, 0.16 transition (probably mostly rain since barely is cold at the end of the time depicted), 0.20 snow, 0.38 qpf total

[orangeblood]

This time of year 06Z is 1am central standard time

Ntxw, I'm thinking about half of that Euro 12z qpf will be snow...cold air is too slow. Thoughts ?

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: This time of year 06Z is 1am central standard time

Ntxw, I'm thinking about half of that Euro 12z qpf will be snow...cold air is too slow. Thoughts ?

Oh, wow Im way off haha. Thats what I get for basing it off of when the 6z GFS starts coming out. Ok that makes much more sense to me thanks for pointing that out.