Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the front managed to get down to me. Nice little respite from the warmth for a moment.

[gpsnowman]

I've heard mention about a pv split. Maybe it's not happening now. Not sure. With the mjo moving into more favorable phases, it would seem to me that models would adjust colder and ensembles after mid February unless I'm missing something. I still am hopeful we will have one more opportunity at a winter event

Haven't heard about the PV in a couple days. Is it it still forecasted to split or at least move in closer to the Hudson Bay?

[Stratton23]

Its looking like a full on split of the PV, according to the GFS, Euro and Euro AIFS, big lobe sets up over NA around the 14th, that has long term implications

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Its looking like a full on split of the PV, according to the GFS, Euro and Euro AIFS, big lobe sets up over NA around the 14th, that has long term implications

I haven't heard it much lately on Twitter. Be nice to see it happen.

[wxman22]

The ICON now gets close to showing a icing event here on Monday.It came in 9 degrees colder than the previous run for the same timeframe.

[Stratton23]

Thats alot of cold air moving south on the 00z ICON at the end of its run

[wxman22]

Looks like the 0Z ICON flipped towards the more aggressive solution of the Canadian model fwiw.

[Stratton23]

CMC brings a piece of the TPV to the US/ Canadian border , GFS still not all that cold, but does have a coastal low cranking up off texas with some cold air in place, not cold enough though ( yet)

[wxman22]

So much for those temps in the 80’s that were in the forecast this week. Looks like the front will now remain south of us for most of the week.

[gpsnowman]

So much for those temps in the 80’s that were in the forecast this week. Looks like the front will now remain south of us for most of the week.

This is one the better (worst) short term forecast busts I've ever seen. Should be in the 60s today in Big D. Yesterday was cold in the low 50s upper 40s starting around lunchtime.

[orangeblood]

Confidence increasing for a winter storm across the southern plains next week. Condsidering how terrrible models are handling these airmasses this time of year (happens almost every winter), forecasting logic points towards shifting most of frozen precip lines south and east. Still 6-7 days out but trends look good!

[wxman22]

[wxman57]

Canadian model appears nuts, as usual. 12Z GFS has a light freeze into NE TX on the 13th, and that's about it. Upper-level flow isn't right to drive any real cold down to Texas. My reinforced walls are doing their job. Will be enjoying the 80s over the next 5 days. Time for some biking!

MAWA!

[Stratton23]

GFS OP trended away from a positive EPO back to negative/neutral EPO again, entire run cold air is getting drained out of canada, its not over, also the CMC is going to run laps around the GFS next week, you can bet on that hahaha

[Stratton23]

But in all seriousness, ill take 50’s and 60’s for highs, these mosquitoes are becoming unbearable, and even just some colder air would be nice to kill them off! Not even insect spray helps lol

[wxman22]

I would be very skeptical about modeled temperature output next week considering how bad the models handled the shallow air this week here.As next weeks air will be shallow also.Just a couple of days ago we were supposed to be in the 80’s today. It’s almost noon and the temperature is only 42 degrees right now…

[Brent]

I would be very skeptical about modeled temperature output next week considering how bad the models handled the shallow air this week here.As next weeks air will be shallow also.Just a couple of days ago we were supposed to be in the 80’s today. It’s almost noon and the temperature is only 42 degrees right now…

Right? The NWS isn't even sure we warm up before Sunday now... All the talk for days was how up and down it was gonna be... at this point Monday was a day by itself

[jasons2k]

GFS OP trended away from a positive EPO back to negative/neutral EPO again, entire run cold air is getting drained out of canada, its not over, also the CMC is going to run laps around the GFS next week, you can bet on that hahaha

Is this the same CMC that had -10 for College Station a couple of weeks ago?

[Stratton23]

jasons2k Ive already acknowledged the CMC’s cold bias , that being said its still the best global model by far at seeing the shallow cold air sink southward, the GFS failed miserably with the front yesterday in far north texas , off by almost 40 degrees on its forecast compared to what the actual temperatures were in real time, at the end of the day, ill gladly trust the CMC more in terms of seeing the cold bleed south despite its cold bias

[Yukon Cornelius]

Still in the low to mid 40s with drizzle. These forecasts the past few days sure have been busting.